Temperatures Set to Skyrocket

Here's the strongest evidence yet that the rise in atmospheric CO2 is outstripping the ability of natural sinks to absorb it. The authors of this study predict the present course will lead to a staggering rise of 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 degrees F) in coming decades. Even conservative scientists agree that any rise above 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees F) risks catastrophic climate change.
Highlights from the paper just out in Nature Geoscience:
- In the past 50 years, roughly 43 percent of global CO2 emissions have stayed airborne in the atmosphere. The rest were absorbed by Earth's carbon sinks on land and in the oceans.
- However the atmospheric fraction of total CO2 emissions has not held steady but increased over time from about 40 percent to about 45 percent.
The trend is likely the result of a decrease in CO2 uptake by carbon sinks on land and in oceans as the world warms. Which means the forests and waters are maxxing out. Here's why:
- Emissions are still rising.
- Before 2002, global emissions grew by some 1 percent a year, since then by some 3 percent a year.
- The growth is mostly due to China's metastatic output.
However the authors' point out that what's really happened is the developed world has exported its emissions to the developing world. America, Europe, Australia and the like are using the manufacturing power of China to produce goods each would have made themselves 20 years ago.
The real troublemakers? Consumers. Not producers.
We need leaders. Bill McKibben rightly chastizes Barack Obama in a MoJo's Copenhagen Here We Come special report:
The announcement yesterday from the APEC meeting in Singapore that next month’s Copenhagen climate talks will be nothing more than a glorified talking session makes it clear that [Barack Obama] has, at least for now, punted on the hard questions around climate. The world won’t be able to get started on solving our climate problem, and the obstacle is—as it has been for the last two decades—the United States.
You can't fool the science any of the time, Mr. President. Gotta make this the number 1 priority, like, yesterday.
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Comments
an exhortation on the exportation of carbon emissions...
Their/your comment on the export of carbon emissions hits the nail on the head. I've not seen an analysis (and I said this to a senior climate change scientist, who agreed he'd not seen one yet either (this was 18 months ago)) attributing "carbon emissions" to the countries that are buying the goods that are produced so we could see just how much of emissions are actually the responsibility of western countries (yours, mine and others). I think such an analysis would be *very* interesting....and perhaps lay the blame on those who are responsible (as Pogo might say.....).
We always talk about trade tariffs, maybe we should be placing financial tariffs on goods in relation to the carbon contribution from their production, so that when they are imported the actual costs would reflect the carbon contribution costs. Jeff Rubin argues that industry will again become more local (reversing the exportation of carbon emissions) when it is too expensive to produce fuel for cheap, long distance transportation of goods. Perhaps a carbon/$$ tariff would produce the same outcome sooner, and return some jobs to western countries (which are much more able to lower the carbon contributions for producing goods).
Thanks for the post Julia.
And some people think it's not getting warmer
I just check the temperature outside, it's 55 degrees F. Not bad for California, except that I live in Central Minnesota, zone 4a and it's only three day until Thanksgiving. Some of my perennials are growing new leaves so chances are they may not survive once cold weather settles in. What are the chances our government will actually do something? In the meanwhile, we, as private citizens, can try to do our best. My property is surrounded by trees (you can't see my house with Google) but every year I plant a few more fruit trees. A drop in a bucket, yes; but while we wait a drop is better then nothing.
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