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Brodner's Person of the Day: Whatshisname

December 6, 2007

Anonymous. Spend a few minutes with Whatshisname. Put YouTube in the hands of a high school teacher who knows how to "cook" and look out. Pass this on.

Whatshisname


School teacher
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I like his way of thinking, it's a little flawed, (should only have 1 smiley face), but still he explores upsides and downsides before coming to a conclusion.
Posted by:RaulDecember 7, 2007 7:34:11 AMRespond ^
Love it!
Posted by:AliDecember 10, 2007 2:07:56 PMRespond ^
A friend asked for my reaction to this film clip. Here's my response: A very interesting argument indeed, and one whose conclusions I happen to agree with. Unfortunately, it could also have been used to justify the pre-emptive invasion of Iraq – just fill in the narrator’s lower right-hand box with “a nuclear explosion taking 300,000 lives in a major American port, with spreading fallout and consequent radiation sickness,” and his upper left-hand box with “a short, successful war in which American forces will suffer a few dozen casualties, overthrow a sleazy dictator and be welcomed as liberators.” The key to our choice between “lottery tickets” A and B depends, of course, on the probabilities attached to each row of the chart. Even a catastrophic outcome looks much more bearable when it’s attached to one-in-a-million odds. As the narrator claims, we may not know with certainty what will happen in the future, but we can attach some pretty high odds to the sun rising in the East tomorrow. So, is this a “silver bullet argument”? No. Unfortunately, there is no such thing when you’re predicting future events with limited information. But I believe that, once our best estimates of the relevant probabilities are inserted, column A is the best lottery ticket to buy.
Posted by:Dave ZimnyDecember 10, 2007 2:48:06 PMRespond ^
The science behind Global Warming is far from decided. So, first of all, we need to make determining the truth, as best we can, our top scientific priority. The fact is, the planet IS getting warmer, no doubt about that. But it could easily be because the sun is getting warmer. Other planets--many of them further from the sun than ours--are heating up as well, and ice shelfs on these planets and their moons are melting as well. It could be part of a cycle; it could be the natural evolution of the sun. Basically, the planet has been getting warmer since the end of the last Ice Age. As far as "whathisname" goes, he forgot to mention one thing in column A, Row one--that messing with the climate, if this is a natural phenomenon, could have far more devastating effects than mere monetary ones. The eco-system is one we're only beginning to understand, and it is a system that is finely balanced. Witness some of our other attempts to change or alter mother nature, and you will see some of the possibilities...I do not have the specifics to give concrete examples right now, but believe me, if you do the research, you will discover them....The only example that leaps to mind if Africanized honey bees. While they turned out to be far from the horror some led us to believe they would be, they are still a menace, especially to people who are allergic. I know in the agricultural realm there have been some pretty scary mistakes as well....And who knows what horrors our experimenting with combining pathogens--viruses, etc--have been, since these endeavors are kept under such secrecy. It's bad enough that bacteria and viruses adapt quickly on their own...engineering super bacteria and viruses is just asking for it! With our globally connected world, if one of these got loose, and it wasn't realized immediately, one travelling businessman could spread the virus (especially if it were airborne) beyond any possible hope of containment within 2 hours. And this is just considering an accidental release. I know there are stringent protocals, and the people who work at bio-tech facilities are highly screened, both their background and their psychological make-up. However, sometimes people will suffer a psychological break, that--no matter how closely monitored they are--could go undetected. This person, while they probably couldn't get any of the agent out of the facility, could infect himself, especially if it were an agent that required a sufficient incubation period. My point is, there is no fool-proof methods, there are always weak spots, and I know that a lot of research into these pathogens is for good...But any programs that are NOT specifically for studying these pathogens to help in time of need, should immediately be shut down. What if a terrorist managed to explode a nuclear bomb near a facility that held deadly airborne pathogens? God forbid, but it's not impossible. I know I've wandered off global warming, and for that I apologize. We need to be sure of what we're doing before we take any drastic action...But we first need to stop de-regulating companies, so that they can pump as much air-pollution into the atmosphere as they want! Whether or not it's causing G.W. it is still bad for mother earth in many other ways.
Posted by:AlanDecember 10, 2007 8:22:55 PMRespond ^
This is overly simplistic and fatally flawed. He completely missed the possibility and consequences of our actions exaserbating the problem. Even acknowledging we are the cause of the current problem does not insure that any action we talk will make things better. Hasn't he heard of unintended consequences?
Posted by:Tom KirwinDecember 11, 2007 12:23:00 AMRespond ^

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