Mother Jones - Comments for "The Future"

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I remember in elections in Britain, when Labour was gaining on the Conservatives, the marginal seats that (often unexpectedly) went to Labour were filled by candidates more radical than the run-of-the-mill Labour MPs. Radicals were more willing to contest when others "had better things to do."

That may well happen in the House of Representatives. I know of a few radicals who may be in Congress next year. (E.g., Grayson in FL-08.) They won't pull the center of balance very far (in the House it's much harder to swing much weight individually), but they'll certainly liven things up.

If the Republicans are going to be long-term regional, minority party, it'll take a few cycles for the Democratic party to clean things up.

Dear god, I long for the days when "everything is bad for liberalism" idiocy is at an end....

Here's an explanation. Consider a left-right axis with zero being leftmost and 100 being rightmost.

Case 1: 55%-45% R:D. Here the centers of the parties are at 23 (D) and 73 (R). Republicans are in control so policy is set by the most conservative 60% and so is rated at 70.

Case 2: 57%-43% D:R. Here the centers are at 29 (D) and 79(R). Democrats are in control so policy is set by the most liberal 60% and so is rated at 30.

Result: Both parties have moved to the right, but policy shifts 40 points to the left.

This move to the centre for the 'Left' and lurch to the further right by the Republicans echoes what happened under New Labour in England and in Australia over the last decade or so... and it isnt good news for the Republicans.

The Right will play to a smaller and smaller group of lunatics, while the 'Left' becomes the only voice of power. Huckabee can forget 2012 and probably 2016 at this rate.

I wouldn't rule out Mike Huckabee as a viable Republican presidential candidate for 2012. While I certainly don't agree with much of what he stands for, there's enough about him to appeal to GOP people beyond the fundie base once they get to know him (his Fox News weekend show is probably his equivalent of Ronald Reagan's 5-minute radio shows in the 1970s). And he's more likable than Sarah Palin. If Huckabee can persuade the corporate Republicans to take him seriously, he has a good shot at the party nod.

Isn't what is happening to the Republicans nationally now a lot like what happened to the California Republicans after Pete Wilson ran his immigration-bashing campaign? That would seem to provide the best analogies.

So, Kevin, what can you tell us about the recent history of the California Republican Party that is relevant?

Is there any reason for California Republicans as a party to continue to exist beyond simply using the requirement for a two-thirds vote for a budget to obstruct effective government?

I'd also guess that there is an ecological niche for two major parties in American political systems and no more. The California Republican Party is occupying one space in that ecology, blocking the growth of any more effective party, and they can't be dislodged because they represent the large group (particularly the wealthy and the government contractors) who don't want more effective government.

But I'm guessing. I don't know California first hand.

McCain has flogged the socialist and wealth redistribution line so mercilessly, that an Obama win will be a mandate for socialism!

A big win will be a BIG mandate for socialism.

I can just see some of those peoplein McCain's crowds, thinking to themselves: "Spread the wealth? Sounds pretty damn good to me!"

There is not reason for Democrats to weenie out again and turn into Republicans, just from the lack of a viable Republican Party.

Many of the so-called "more conservative" districts out there are full of people who want universal health care, good schools, no war, and who are hurting from "free trade". Just speaking of all this in bipolar left-right terms makes no real sense.

"If this happens, the upshot is that both parties get moved to the right."

As others have noted, Kevin, there's a fairly basic statistical error here.

An analogy from my own field (I'm a philosopher of biology) - in population genetics, the average size of the animals (zebras, say) in *every single* herd can go down, while the average size of zebras across the population goes up. Why? Because the herds with larger individuals do better, even as the individuals in them get smaller.

Both parties move to the right, yes, but only because the leftmost one of them occupies a *much* larger chunk of the political spectrum - which has itself shifted to the left quite pronouncedly - than before.

Dawn, you stated "Now you are saying that his victory will move the country farther to the right. I agree with you, since he has not run with a liberal message."

Obama is running on the set of messages that he has to in order to take power, but I don't think he is ideological in the way the conservatives are. In fact, he'd better not be, because the current descent into Recession is a lot like the one in 1929, and no one really has an explanation for what happened in 1929 yet.

Obama better be a pragmatist. There is going to be a lot of economic suffering over the next three to five (and possibly more) years, and no real answers regarding what to do about it. The only overarching institution that can change anything is the federal government.

Besides being a highly intelligent pragmatists who has put together an amazing management teal to get elected, Obama is also a Constitutional scholar who understands that the Constitution is the finest compilation of Liberal thought in government that has ever been written and implemented (unlike Scalia and Bork who are psuedo scholars who wish to recreate the Constitution to match their conservative ideology.)

We aren't going to get bleeding edge Liberalism out of a President Obama, but frankly his time is going to be much better spend ensuring that the core meaning of the Constitution is brought back while he also works to shore up the American economy.

Obama has run with the messages he need to in order to win power, but he is a scholar of the finest Liberal document ever implemented as well as a Lawyer well versed in Stare Decisis. He's not going to move the country to the right.