Mother Jones - Comments for "The Senate"

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Dems need all the Senate seats they can get. In 2012 they will be defending 22 while there are only 9 Republicans up for reelection. There will be lots of Dems up for reelection in red states and some popular oldtimer Dems not seeking reelection. I would guess at least a loss of 5 seats unless the first Obama administration is a stunning success.

ok, this is how the recorded vote in the 2004 alaska senate race changed from the day after the election to the final count:

49.3 to 48.6 Murkowski
45.0 to 45.5 Knowles

the early call on Alaska is ridiculous

Oregon is going to the Dems. The outstanding results are almost entirely from the Portland area (Multnomah County) and Eugene (Lane County), and the margin has been narrowing as those results sloooowwwly trickle in.

What's the deal with Dems and close senate contests?

These guys aren't any better at stealing elections than Al gore?

Alaskans, almost unbelievably, appear to have returned convicted felon Ted Stevens to office...

This isn't surprising at all. Alaska is still pretty conservative, so, a lot of Alaskan voters no doubt figured reelecting Stevens means they can ultimately send a Republican to the Senate (ie., Stevens's eventual replacement). I don't remember whether it's Palin who gets to appoint somebody to fill a vacancy (assuming the Senate throws Stevens out) or whether there's a special election, but either case allows Alaskans to choose a Republican.

When the 2006 numbers came in I thought it was nice Dems had won seats, but odd the win wasn't bigger. It looks the same this time. It's nice Obama won, but the size of his win doesn't seem to have increased Congressional gains as much as I thought it might.

What I suspect this means is that the cultural divide between Main Street Republicans & Democrats has grown so large that even in the face of a Bush administration this destructive they are loathe to vote for any Democrat. In fact they're still being told the Democrats are the Devil and they're believing it (at least in large numbers).

So, that means Dems could nibble away at the edges in Florida, Virginia, Montana, Colorado, Nevada and more in New Mexico. These were somewhat expected because of retiring senators and changing demographics out west. But, there were few big surprises (nothing like Texas flipping to Dem). Indiana being close is surprising but it neighbors Illinois and is fairly northern. The bigger one for me was North Carolina. I know some of those people and they're far from all rural hicks or big city metropolitan sophisticates. That they kicked out Dole and also elected a female Dem governor and (I think) went for Obama was pretty surprising. We hadn't seen any indication of that in '06.

How can Dems shrink the cultural divide between the Ds & Rs? Even if we risk losing Dems gains it would clearly be better for America if we didn't have a modern version of the "Yankee north" and "Dixie south" within our society.

With Shays and Sununu gone, The North East has not a single Republican Senator....

Uh, Shays is a (soon to be "former") House Representative. And what about Senators Collins (just reelected) and Snowe of Maine?

I think you meant was that Shays is/was the last Representative from New England.

Morat - agreed. Based on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Senate_elections, I'd say the Dems will end up +2 or +3 after the 2010 election. We'll really know if the Democratic majority is here to stay with election day 2012, if the Dems hold the White House and start defending 20 Senate seats every 2 years.

Do you mean that the Democrats will gain an additional two or three seats, or lose whatever number of seats they end up in a few weeks to be down to 52 or 53? If it's the latter, why do you think that? I've heard this repeated many times, but always without explanation. What senators out of a list that includes names like Schumer, Leahy, Bayh, and Boxer, among many others, are up for grabs? If anything, based on how things went last night for the Democrats, I'd be more worried if I were the party having to defend Voinovich, McCain, Martinez, Burr, Gregg, and Bond.

Does anyone know what will happen to Biden and Obama's Senate seats?

Domino and I are voluteering to fill in. It is imperative that we be considered since there is a serious lack of nibblies in this house.

Does anyone know what will happen to Biden and Obama's Senate seats?

Dunno about Delaware (Bo Biden maybe?), but Obama's seat will almost certainly go to Lisa Madigan or Jesse Jackson, Jr. The two of them just have to figure out who wants to be governor and who wants to be senator. My guess is that Madigan will pick the former -- it's easier to make a splash as a young governor, and that's probably a nominally better spot to run for president some day.