Mother Jones - Comments for "The End of the Carterets"

RTFM

To those linking to the sltrends.shtml page on noaa, you might want to Read The FAQ: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/faq.shtml#q1 It includes the following statement on how NOAA defines it's data: "global sea level rise was approximately 1.7-1.8 millimeters per year (mm/yr) over the past century (IPCC, 2007), " which for those who aren't up to snuff on the math is 1/10th of 1 meter... on the other hand the data shown on the NOAA page is does not reflect changes in sea level but instead includes: "both global sea level rise and vertical land motion, such as subsidence, glacial rebound, or large-scale tectonic motion." in other words changes more than about 2 mm (aka about the thickness of a penny are NOT related to global sea level or global warming) I agree when someone reads the data the answers are pretty clear.

re:

earth to commentariat google for: sea level trends http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml

Nature and Science Anthony

Nature and Science Anthony Watts is obviously not the source of satellite data I've linked to. The guys who are publish in Nature and Science as well. I'll let you look up the references. It should only take a couple of minutes for somebody who clearly reads his Nature and Science regularly.

Peer-reviewed science and some guy with a blog

EB, I tend to credit peer-reviewed science, particularly in top journals like Science or Nature over what some guy writes in a blog. Even if said blogger is a former TV weather guy. In Chico, CA. I know, horribly elitist of me. But that's just how I roll. Feel free to believe what you want. As for the 20 cm/century, that was in reference to your "seas may be rising" remark. Why you wrote that when you apparently know that there's no question that seas have been rising for thousands of years is really of no concern to me. The best available evidence is that sea level rise is accelerating, and this century will see much more than 20 cm. If you don't believe that, or don't care, that's your business. Finally, if you are so sure that AGW is BS, make your way over to backseatdriving.blogspot.com and put your money where your mouth is.

I do think that one has to

I do think that one has to consider all the possible explanations for what is occurring there before concluding it's attributable to any specific causes, BUT this is not the only place that is experiencing problems like this. I recall reports about a town in the arctic that is eroding into the ocean, as well as yet another tropical island that is losing its fresh water sources and the palms are dying because of salt water infiltration with apparently rising sea levels. Co-inky-dinks? The big picture seems to indicate that similar things are happening in diverse locations. Is this typical?

When you're standing on an

When you're standing on an island that's sinking into the ocean it probably appears as if that the sea level is rising. Perspective is everything in life.

Jeff S., that Wikipedia

Jeff S., that Wikipedia graph shows sea level rise of whopping 20 cm per century(!). That's barely enough to get your feet wet. Local variation could easily cancel that, that's why "sea levels may have risen". That is, unless you can point me to a century of data on sea level in these islands.... And the CO2-temperature-sea level correlation article, well, here's a somewhat different version of that temperature data. Decide for yourself. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/07/april-global-temperature-anomalies... Dig a little deeper than Google, you might learn something :)

Relevance?

Google Earth shows it to be an active earthquake zone and Australian studies indicate the plates are moving in this region at rates more than 1000X the sea level rise making the region subject to subduction. Most of Alaska, coastal Washington, Oregon, and California, not to mention Japan, China etc, are very active earthquake zones, and most of them, (central and So Cal are the exception) are in subduction zones. Not sure what that's got to do with the price of eggs in Carteret. But, you know, whatevers.

If somebody paid me $700,000

If somebody paid me $700,000 to move off this atoll, I think I might take them up on it. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carteret_Islands (Ongoing Relocation at the bottom of the page). But aside from the economic incentive, Google Earth shows it to be an active earthquake zone and Australian studies indicate the plates are moving in this region at rates more than 1000X the sea level rise making the region subject to subduction. See http://66.102.1.104/scholar?hl=en&lr=&q=cache:xfSNuB3LXPgJ:wwwrses.anu.e... And Kevin, please cite the evidence that storm forces are actually increasing. In fact, the opposite is true - see http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/?p=8.

facts are stupid things

The sea levels may have risen... Oh, please! There is no question that average sea levels are rising. Even most global warming skeptics, the ones that care at all about being taken seriously, admit this. The evidence is overwhelming. Look for yourself. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise Yes, there are local effects that cause variations, but the global trend is clear. To the extent that there is a "debate", it's around whether human induced increases in gases like CO2 are leading to an increasing rate of sea level rise. The evidence that it is happening is also extremely strong. See: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Nature/rahmstorf_etal_sci... Use the google people! You might learn something.

You may have heard that

You may have heard that Simplicio, and you may also be correct. (Up above, I was just trolling however....) :)

The sea levels may have

The sea levels may have risen, and may have caused increased flooding, which may have been exacerbated by storms, which may have increased in intensity, which may be due to global warming. Is this line of thinking even remotely scientific? Why are we using it?

wrath

Obviously the people of these islands have committed sins for which God has seen fit to visit them with tribulation.

On the real Earth water

On the real Earth water expands when it heats; this causes the sea levels to rise. In Republican and Libertarian fantasy land the actual laws of physics are irrelevant. Clap harder! And the odds of a catastrophic rise (if ice melts faster than expected) are significant. The paleoclimate record is inconsistent with the survival of ice above 350 ppm - a threshold that we are already above. The only question is how long it takes, not whether it happens.

NOAA rocks

Shoe, Thanks for the links. NOAA is awesome. Tripp