In The Blogs

Afghanistan Update

| Thu Sep. 18, 2008 9:12 AM PDT

AFGHANISTAN UPDATE....I know nobody cares, what with the global financial system collapsing around our ears, but things aren't going too well in Afghanistan these days. Laura King reports:

A summer of heavy fighting during which Western military leaders had hoped to seize the initiative from Islamic militants has instead revealed an insurgency capable of employing complex new tactics and fighting across a broad swath of Afghanistan.

...."In all, we feel that things are going very, very well for us," said a Taliban field commander in Kandahar province whose men fought hit-and-run battles with Canadian and British forces during the summer, the season when fighting is most intense. "And what is more, time is on our side."

....In large swaths of the countryside, insurgents have been able to intimidate local officials into cooperating, in part because President Hamid Karzai's government is perceived to be corrupt and inefficient. "Once, people would look to the government for justice," said Abdul Qadoos, a businessman and tribal leader in Kandahar province. "Now they go to the Taliban."

Read the whole thing for more. The Taliban originally took over Afghanistan in the mid-90s because the central government was widely perceived to be corrupt and inefficient. As long as that continues, the Taliban (or something Taliban-like enough for the difference not to matter) will remain a huge force there. As in Iraq, the key to stability is political reconciliation more than pure military victory.

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Comments

Submitted by steve duncan (not verified) on Thu Sep. 18, 2008 9:25 AM PDT.

Obviously Kevin Drum hates America.

"Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!"

Submitted by Evil Twin (not verified) on Thu Sep. 18, 2008 9:36 AM PDT.

There are two reasons why things aren't going well in Afghanistan.

1) This was never a problem that could be solved with military force.

2) The only reason we went to Afghanistan was revenge. The Taliban didn't actually attack us. As I recall, they even offered to hand bin Laden over to a third party for a fair trial. We didn't want that.

This was always going to be a failure because there was no plan for anything else.

Submitted by Varecia (not verified) on Thu Sep. 18, 2008 10:08 AM PDT.

So what do those who oppose(d) our military involvement in Afghanistan suggest ought to be done? Do they even think anything ought to be done there? Do they see any kind of past or present problems or potential problems there? I've heard this critique about the U.S. in Afghanistan from the local progressives, but I'm not sure what is the alternative, especially now?

Submitted by enozinho (not verified) on Thu Sep. 18, 2008 10:51 AM PDT.

Silly Kevin. There aren't any good targets in Afghanistan. But Spain! Spain has a ton of good targets.

Submitted by karog (not verified) on Thu Sep. 18, 2008 11:20 AM PDT.

Had Bush been asked about Zapatero, he would have responded:

What about my shoe?

Submitted by Robert Waldmann (not verified) on Thu Sep. 18, 2008 1:05 PM PDT.

Calm down. Corrupt and inefficient is one thing, at war with itself as in the mid 90s is another. I don't mean metaphorically at war. Kabul is still (partly) in ruins because in the early 90s the Prime Minister's army shelled it repeatedly if not continuously trying to defeat the President and the defense minister.

Submitted by Hedley Lamarr (not verified) on Thu Sep. 18, 2008 1:27 PM PDT.

Of course it's not going well. When was the last time we won a land war in Asia?

Submitted by The Conservative Deflator (not verified) on Thu Sep. 18, 2008 2:35 PM PDT.

Many of the original Taliban were orphans from the Soviet-Afghan war in the 1970s, which was really a proxy war between the Soviets and the U.S. and our Saudi allies. It's not surprising that they hate us, since we indirectly played a role in killing their parents.

We might want to focus on building functional roads, power lines and water treatment plants there, instead of killing more people and creating more enemies.

Absent that, I say we send over Sarah Palin and her moose rifle and let her lead the charge, with the McCain boys and her meth-sniffing son bringing up the rear!

Submitted by Jassalasca Jape (not verified) on Thu Sep. 18, 2008 6:57 PM PDT.

So what do those who oppose(d) our military involvement in Afghanistan suggest ought to be done?

Sometimes you don't get a second chance. I don't know the region, but opium is a profitable crop, and on the face of it you would think that the government there is likely to become more corrupt over time, not less. Eventually, the US will find it necessary to leave. It's not directly responsive to the question, but fixing the US health care system and thinking veeery carefully about blundering into further china-closet wars is probably something to think about. It would make things easier for the vets that come home.

Submitted by MG (not verified) on Thu Sep. 18, 2008 7:25 PM PDT.

I don't think the Taliban are in to "political reconciliation" in a form that would be acceptable to either the U.S. or Karzai. They formed the only legitimate, as in accepted by a majority of the populace, government there in what, 35 years? Longer? Why should they allow themselves to be Sunnied, a la Iraq, when they have such a strong claim to primacy?

Submitted by Andrew (not verified) on Fri Sep. 19, 2008 10:41 AM PDT.

Laypersons often underestimate the complexity of warfare in Afghanistan.

Logistically, it is nearly impossible to support large numbers of troops for any length of time. The high altitude of most of the country makes it very difficult for helicopters to operate, although they are invaluable. Most of the population is scattered in villages, where most of the Taliban fighters are able to shelter in the innumerable caves. The latter do most of their limited military logistics (small arms, mortars, RPGs) by animal back and take food from the populace.

Without garrisoning the villages, the villagers cannot be protected from either the Taliban or bandits. Garrisons in the villages are vulnerable to attack and defeat in detail, as well as being very hard to logistically support. A raid can strike and escape before reaction aircraft arrive. Enough artillery to make a difference would be extremely expensive, with similar problems on a larger scale.

Note that the Russians struggled with this problem, using quite brutal tactics such as razing villages, flame and chemical weapons and landmines disguised as toys, for over a decade before giving up.

Either the United States needs to devote enormous resources to a major counterinsurgency effort, or ruthless tactics need to be considered such as evacuating, depopulating and heavily mining entire zones.

Any in-between answer will only strengthen the Taliban.

Rest assured that the Chinese will continue to build their influence in the region.

The real prize: access to the Middle East by pipeline and military highway, along the old caravan routes.

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