Unemployment
| Fri Sep. 5, 2008 9:01 AM PDT
UNEMPLOYMENT....The unemployment rate jumped to 6.1% last month. The chart on the right is courtesy of Brad DeLong, who says simply, "It's already as deep in the unemployment metric as the 1980 recession."
Which, of course, makes it all the more remarkable that the Republican Party just held a 4-day nationally televised convention with dozens of speakers and managed to only barely even mention the economy. John McCain finally got around to it last night, briefly mentioning "tough times" and then devoting a few sentences to the subject, but that was about it. And his heart pretty obviously wasn't in it even for those few sentences.
If McCain loses in November, that's going to be one of the biggest reasons why. Sarah Palin aside, he simply doesn't sound like he understands what's really going on out in the outside world, and when he's forced to talk about it he has nothing to say. Republican orthodoxy forbids any serious response — forbids, in fact, even the possibility of an effective response other than yet another round of tax cuts — so it's best to mutter a few bromides and move on. And that's what he does.
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Comments
Kevin wrote: "Sarah Palin aside, he simply doesn't sound like he understands what's really going on out in the outside world ..."
That's a non sequitur.
The selection of Sarah Palin is the strongest and clearest indicator that McCain doesn't understand what's going on in the outside world.
The Rove-McCain campaign has lost the independent voters, and the so-called "disaffected Democrats", and even many moderate Republicans.
All they have left is the lunatic fringe, Christofascist, white supremacist, right-wing extremist dittohead Republican base.
Kevin, I'm confused by DeLong's assertion of "deepness." According to the graph, the unemployment numbers were much higher in the late seventies. What do you and he mean by deeper?
That's not to take anything away from the utter gloominess of the current numbers. And here in SoCal, we're feeling it even harder than everywhere else. It's really rather grim.
I believe the methodolgy used to determine the unemployment statistic has changed during the time frame of Brad's graph. Of course it has changed to understate the true number which has been increasing due to the result of automation and globalization. Realistically, it's probably approaching 15%.
Other spun metrics are inflation which is understated and GDP which is overstated. Use the publish numbers with several grains of salt!
I wish it were true that the average voter was interested in actual facts such as the condition of the economy as it relates to our lives. But for many voters it just doesn't matter.
I work in an office with many conservative coworkers. My good friend Patti is pretty socially liberal for a knee jerk conservative. In fact she seriously considered coming to our Unitarian church due to their liberal sex education program (she has two daughters). And she has nothing but contempt for fundamentalists.
I rarely speak to her about politics but Patti and another coworker were talking about Palin before her big speech and I told Patti that Palin is for abstinence only sex education and teaching of creationism, Patti said "oh really?" We left it at that.
Well the next day after Palin's big speech Patti and the same coworker were swooning over Palin. They'd vote for her right now and she should be at the top of the ticket, not McCain.
So Patti would vote for Palin disregarding how Palin would educate her daughter (abstinence only and creationism). I'm convinced that many people vote simply on the basis of gut feel. Patti can identify with Sarah Palin at the gut level and it doesn't matter what the issues are. They simply do not make the connection that when you vote for these people it can affect your life.
That is why these cultural attacks on Obama are so effective and why Sarah Palin is such a dangerous choice. I think the U.S. is full of people like Patti who only respond to these gut level feelings and tune out when issues come up. It's sad, but that is the American electorate for you.
"I think the U.S. is full of people like Patti who only respond to these gut level feelings and tune out when issues come up." -- Dave in MT
Political choices have consequences. But, representative government grows more and more distant from individuals. Most Americans feel they have no "say" in how they are governed, and they're right -- except in election years.
America is whatever is on television when you're watching.
When he did reference the economy, McCain was amazingly ineffective. He listed those specific families with problems. He had me waiting to hear how his new policies would specifically help them (and the millions of other people) with these problems.
Nothing.
Eventually he got to "Cut taxes for the rich. Drill, baby, drill."
Terribly ineffective and disjointed.
Maybe the republicans don't care because no one seems to care all that much.
On a "gut feeling" level, unemployment just doesn't mean the same thing it used to. There is much more job mobility now, and people don't have the same expectations they used to with regard to employment. For a lot of folks whose parents worked 30 or 40 years at the same firm, 3 or 4 years is now considered a good run.
Also, the preponderance of dual income families means that unemployment doesn't always have the same catastrophic effect it once did. Not that it doesn't still hurt, but many families have a built in safety net.
As to the unemployment numbers themselves, as bad as they are, they're deceptively low. The millions of workers who have become contractors over the past 15 to 20 years don't become "unemployed", they're just out of business, and ineligible for benefits. Statistics show that hours worked are down as well, meaning that many workers while still employed, aren't earning enough to make ends meet.
Apparently anarchy isn't the best way to manage an economy.
Unemployment is much higher than 6.1% The large increase is due to the extension of benefits provided with the "stimulus package" as soon as those benefits are gone, many people without work will simply "disappear" again from the stats. The American economy is in a deepening recession that will last for years. Neither McCain nor Obama can change what Wnomics have produced. Stagflation, debt, cheap credit, weak dollar, shrinking manufacturing...the list of signs is quite long. I'm sure they'll blame Clinton.
Dear Sir,
You have overlooked the numbers of discouraged workers. The level is 10%. I had been impressed by unimployment rates of 4.5% until I checked the discouraged worker rate. Then there is the temporary and underemployed worker rate too.
Kirby
Can I say it's not McCain's inability to "relate to" the unemployment numbers that make his ticket lose? He could have burst into tears last night, and it wouldn't have helped. The FACT of a recessionary economy will defeat him, as it has, literally, every incumbent party since the foundation of the two-party system at the time of the Civil War.
I don't know why people so buy into this "facts mean nothing/optics are all" view of presidential elections that the press promotes. In fact, every election this past century has turned out the way the basic metrics have suggested (even 2000, where Gore's rightful win was obviously swiped away). Just because TV idiots believe they've turned rather on "There you go again" or a DUI or a bin Laden video is no reason for educated folk to buy into the nonsense.
"Also, the preponderance of dual income families means that unemployment doesn't always have the same catastrophic effect it once did. Not that it doesn't still hurt, but many families have a built in safety net."
You're looking at it the wrong way, Dave. As Elizabeth Warren has noted, in the past when a single-earner in a two-parent family lost a job, then he/she could find a lesser-paying job immediately along with his/her spouse, who was previously not working at all. Thus, their income could pretty much approach or exceed what the single earner was making before, and this worked out fine because their expenses and standard of living was tied to this earnings level. Now, if a two-earner family has one earner lose a job, then there are no backup earners that can be enlisted and the earnings are subject to any decrease that the unemployed earner has to tolerate when taking a new lesser-paying job. And, to further complicate things, the two-earner family most likely has a standard of living that is tied closely to the full income from both earners, with very little wiggle room, and possibly significant debt.
Submitted by Crissa (not verified) on Fri Sep. 5, 2008 3:49 PM PDT.
You know they'll just change how it's measured, again, so that it doesn't stay 'high'.
Job loss is one of the
Submitted by Lia O on Wed May. 13, 2009 1:35 AM PDT.
Job loss is one of the greatest trials we can endure. The effects of job loss are often long lasting. This is largely due to the fact that society trains us to identify ourselves by how we provide for our family. And with the unemployment rate that continues to spiral upward, now, many people are struggling and unable to provide the needs of their family such as foods and clothes. Everyone is hurting, and the fact that the government officials can’t do something in order to help them is somewhat disappointing. Well, there’s no doubt that during tough times, the only thing that we can do in order to survive is to cut cost. Anyway, share advisory companies are probably hurting these days. We are in the middle of beginning recession recovery, but share advisory companies are grasping at whatever straws are available to them, in order to advise their clients that there is some sort of money to be made on stock exchange; they do have to justify the payday loan you almost have to get to subscribe. Whatever company a person chooses to buy stock in, you never know these days – as it seems that panic and the mental stability of a Chihuahua dominates exchanges rather than logic, reason, and something resembling science. Still, it doesn't take away the debt relief that share advisory companies need these days.
