Election Pool
| Wed Oct. 22, 2008 5:28 PM PDT
ELECTION POOL....Do Republicans really think they might lose 34 seats in the House? Wow.
And as long as we're on the subject, it's time for predictions. There are three categories this year:
Winner and total electoral votes for president.
Composition of the House. Current composition is 235-199-1.
Composition of the Senate. Current composition is 49-49-2.
I suck at this, but I'll predict (a) Obama with 310 electoral votes, (b) 250-185, and (c) 55-43-2. Leave your predictions in comments. Winner gets a free subscription to Mother Jones.
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Continued From Above
Comments
Submitted by Yellow Dog (not verified) on Wed Oct. 22, 2008 5:33 PM PDT.
Thanks, optimist - now I can make my prediction without betraying my personal cynicism.
Electoral: Obama 350
House: 270-164-1
Senate - 60-38-2
Obama 330 electoral votes.
Senate: 57-41-2.
House: 270-165.
How will the winner be computed? I suppose you could compute a percentage for each of the three numbers (so they all get weighted equally), and add up the errors, with the smallest total percentage error winning. (Yes, I'm a nerd).
Submitted by Howard (not verified) on Wed Oct. 22, 2008 6:04 PM PDT.
Obama - 318
McCant - 220
Senate: D 58, R 41, 1 Lieberman, 1 Ind.
House: D 249, R 185, Ind. 1
President: Obama 375, McCain 163
House: Democrats 260, Republicans 175
Senate-Democrats 57, Republicans 41, Lieberman and Sanders.
I think it's at the fringes of possibility that the Democrats could win 59 seats in the Senate if they sweep the races in Minnesota, Georgia and Mississippi, but I figure they'll only take one of them. I think they're close to locks to pick up at least seven seats-the question is whether they take any more.
Submitted by Charles (not verified) on Wed Oct. 22, 2008 6:14 PM PDT.
I made these predictions a week ago to a friend, but I'm still feeling reasonably confident in them.
353 EVs (Kerry states + Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio)
55+2 in the Senate (the obvious 54, Shaheen, Hagan, and Merkley).
252 in the House.
The Obama prediction might be too optimistic and the Congressional ones might be too pessimistic. But I feel pretty confident they won't be wrong in the opposite direction.
Submitted by Blue Girl (not verified) on Wed Oct. 22, 2008 6:20 PM PDT.
(a) Obama takes 364 electoral votes.
(b) House 260 Democrats, 175 republicans
(c) Senate - 58-40-2
Submitted by low-tech cyclist (not verified) on Wed Oct. 22, 2008 7:03 PM PDT.
Obama 370
58-40-2
262-172-1
