Tomorrow

| Mon Nov. 3, 2008 8:44 AM PST

TOMORROW....As near as I can tell, here's the state of the race. Obama is ahead by a lot, but (a) the Bradley effect might cost him a couple of points, (b) super-duper black turnout might help him by a point or so, (c) Palin-mania might help GOP turnout more than we expect, (d) Palin-phobia will increase Obama's share of the female vote, (e) independents are likely to break heavily for McCain, (f) a joyous Obama tsunami will add a point or two to the Dem column, (g) Joe the Plumber is making inroads among working class voters in swing states, but (h) Obama's ground game is awesome and adds hidden strength to his poll totals. Plus i, j, k, l, m, n, o, p, q, r, s, t, u, v, w, x, and y.

Feh. This is a mug's game. None of the pundits know squat. The polls are what they are. Obama's ground operation has been in the planning stages for months and it's superb. As of today, pretty much everyone's mind is made up. Obama's going to win by 5-6 points (maybe more!), and tomorrow the most disastrous presidency in modern history will finally begin the shamefaced descent into the memory hole that it so richly deserves. I can't wait.

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Comments

"Memory hole" -- never! I'll be warning my grandchildren about this debacle in the decades to come. They'll shake their heads, of course, but hopefully something will sink in. Remember the alamo.

Hooray!

I'll up you - Yippee!! AND yippetayay!!!

shamefaced descent into the memory hole

You mean Federal prison, right?

What happened to Z?

Are you holding out on us?

Jon Stewart said it best: if Obama loses, it's just heartbreaking.

Heartbreaking.

I'll remember two things most of all: the disgusting, indecent campaign by McCain and Palin, and Mr. Obama's fierce, determined grace under pressure.

The guy is amazing, and I predict that America will not break our hearts.

Tomorrow night, we'll have tears all right: tears of joy.

It's going to be a fine, proud moment for the country, and that will obliterate the ugly smears from the Republicans.

It's one for the history books. A bright, shining story for the grandkids.

My wife and I are making gingerbread pancakes, and we have a bottle of champagne.

America still kicks ass.

as soon as mccain concedes and the e.c. certifies, i want obama and all of his allies to start the drumbeat: no pardons.

no last-minute pardons for libby or rove or anyone.

i want mikes shoved in bush's face on nov. 5: will you promise not to obstruct justice by pardoning any member of your administration? will you go on record refusing to pardon anyone who may be the subject of a legal investigation?

if not, why not?

i'd like to see this become a priority for all lefty bloggers, too.

Obama ground game + Obama enthusiasm + reverse Bradley effect + Repuglican dis-spiritedness = Obama by 10-12 + 10 senate pick-ups. Dreaming? Check this space on 11-5.

I have some lofty expectations for Obama, if things go about as well as planned. I missed my opportunity to elaborate on the Electoral College results a week or so ago, but allow me to say that if Obama does really well, he'll probably break 400 Electoral votes or come very close to doing it.

I don't know how likely it is. Some mights list both Dakotas as toss ups, along with Georgia, for instance, while others have them as safe McCain states. Meanwhile, the number crunchers at fivethirtyeight.com predict about a six-point win overall, a tremendous number to be sure, one that includes a very solid win of about 340 votes in the Electoral College.

But there are a few polls out there that have Obama at a double-digit win nationally. I don't know how likely that is. If I had to guess, I'd say, not that likely. But if Obama's floor is around five or six points, what is his ceiling? If he wins, say, a nine-point victory nationwide, how many states does this push into the blue column? At the very least, a victory that large would probably make it certain that Obama would win not only Ohio and Florida, but Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana, if not Georgia, North Dakota, and Montana. Hell, if the lead is that big, perhaps Obama would win Arizona by a small margin.

Again, I'm not saying it's likely, but as many others have noted, Obama's ground game is incredible, while McCain's is pretty weak. Then consider all of the advantages that the Democrats go into the races with. Then think about the way supposedly most reputable pollsters are predicting the race in some models. Hell, Gallup's Registered Voter model up to November 2 has Obama ahead by 13 points, and the lowest of the low in the final projections has him ahead by six points. All of this added up leads me to think that we are headed for a big, big win.

Which is to say, this is good news, of course, for John McCain.

Screw the pundits. That One wins the EC, 371-167, and the PV 52.7%-45.1%. Oh, he comes just short in IN, MO, & MT, but GA & ND go blue.

You heard it here first.

the most disastrous presidency in modern history

So, was there someone worse in non-modern history? Why not Worst President Ever? This is not snark - I really want to understand who you think is worse, and why - maybe I'm not up on all the bad presidents.

Well, until red and blue start actually killing each other, I'd say Buchanan has a lock on worst President ever.

I don't see how you can list all those factors and not list

(a) Republican caging lists designed to invalidate voters -- mostly legitimate voters, and mostly collegiate and/or poor voters -- by the hundreds of thousands.
(b) Lines lasting for hours, causing, I would expect, voters in the low millions to leave without casting a ballot.
(c) Electronic voting machines that can be tampered with by pretty much any talented hacker.
(d) States (New Mexico at least was one in 2004) where the paper ballots are counted by a for-profit private company, and not produced for public inspection.

Nothing you list should be higher-ranked than (e), I suspect.

The 2008 Republican campaign is not going down any memory hole. It's going onto a tally of scores to be settled.

Well, I take a back seat to no one when it comes to Bush hatred and disgust at the repellant McCain campaign.

But calls for score-settling, revenge, etc. are foolish.

Even if you think these things are right or just, the politics of it is stupid.

If there is one thing Mr. Obama has demonstrated, it is grace.

Take the high road. Tomorrow, the dishonorable John McCain and the grotesque Sarah Palin will get their just desserts: losers.

They will be forever associated with a disgusting, race-baiting campaign. They're both disgraced, and washed-up.

Hehehe, great post.

I am hoping that Bill the Cat surges to victory, based largely on the Silent Meowity in America's heartland.

Have strong desire to have buzzp's question answered given what we all know about U S History. At same time American the land of 60% cretins including the craven cretinistic press can never ever be forgiven for what they did in electing W.

Okay, guys--how will the GOP steal _this_ one?

As for BuzzP's question--"worst" is a shifty term. Harding used to be dismissed this way...but he has enjoyed a modest rehab in recent years. Until Lil' Bush, I thought that Buchanan was the most disastrous, thus worst in terms of outcomes...with Tricky Dick as the "worst" in terms of vacant moral core, slippery grasp of the Constitution, etc.

Easy -- all this triumphalism before the event is creating sympathy for McCain. I'm having a lot of trouble keeping my Republican friend to his promise to vote Democratic this time (first time in his life). He feels sorry for McCain now.

Amen to Kevin's post. Enough said.

Sure, Bush is the worst president in a good long time.

But, it seems to me, that political pundits don't really have much right to call him that.

You guys, almost completely without exception, supported Bush's policy in the most disastrous decision he made.

Sure, the response to Katrina, the tax cuts that exacerbated the deficit, Patriot Act denials of civil rights, etc.... Those were all bad. But the Iraq war killed about a million people.

And all the smug, serious-minded political pundits supported it. The NYT, Washington Post, LA Times, NPR, TNR, the think tanks - Brookings, AEI, Heritage, Hudson, WINEP, the big liberal bloggers - Yglesias, Ezra Klein, Josh Marshall, Mr. Drum, Sullivan, almost all of them supported the war.

If 100 people are watching a man about to jump off a cliff, and 99 say, "yeah, that's a good idea," is it fair for those 99 people to, afterwards, constantly question the judgment of the jumper? Probably the best they could say is "well, he was unlucky".

But instead all the political pundits love to show their perspicacity, and tut-tut the Bush decision to go to war. You guys, ALL, would've done the same thing.

Now, 40-50% of the US population opposed the war, 95% of the world population opposed the war, about 40-60% of Democratic politicians opposed the war, and they have the right to say Bush was wrong. But not you hawks.

I'm having a lot of trouble keeping my Republican friend to his promise to vote Democratic this time (first time in his life). He feels sorry for McCain now.

Looks like your friend was looking for an excuse to vote for McCain. McCain is behind the polls largely because of his support for the same disastrous policies Bush implemented and partly because of his poor campaign. Maybe he will still pull this off because of some Bradley or Humvee or whatever effect, but he is behind polls as of now largely because of his own making.

I would say, try as many

I would say, try as many different experiences as possible, inspiration and ideas come from all sorts of places.

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