Finally....Election Pool Winners!
| Mon Jan. 5, 2009 12:38 PM PST
FINALLY....ELECTION POOL WINNERS!....Back in October I held a pool to guess the results of the November election. With Al Franken now the official winner of the Minnesota senate race (officially enough for me, anyway), I can finally declare a winner.
Two winners, actually. Here's how things broke down:
Obama won 365 electoral votes, but nobody got that exactly right. (Thanks, Nebraska!) So I rounded up all the people who predicted 364 electoral votes.
Democrats won 257 House seats and 59 Senate seats (counting the two independents). However, none of the folks in the 364 pool got that exactly right.
But two people came close. Professional prognosticator Sam Wang (founder of the Princeton Election Consortium) guessed 257 House seats and 58 Senate seats, while James Shearer predicted 260 House seats and 59 Senate seats.
Congratulations, James and Sam! A free subscription to Mother Jones is yours for the asking. Just email me your address and I'll get you signed up.
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Comments
" Professional prognosticator Sam Wang (founder of the Princeton Election Consortium) guessed 257 House seats and 58 Senate seats, while James Shearer predicted 260 House seats and 59 Senate seats."
HOLD IT! One of the winners is a "professional prognosticator"?
That's not fair to all us amateurs out there. This contest should have been open to AMATEURS only!
I say give James Shearer his prize. Our nation needs his skills, knowledge, and hard work. I am he receives minimal free stuff due to his career choice. Maybe some sweet Princeton ties and travel coffee mugs? Per that one movie, lots of pens?
Norm, you had a typo in your post. Shouldn't it be "Every Norm vote should be counted, screw the others. Hurrumph, hurrumph."
By the way, I like Nate Silver's comment "Defeated Presidential candidates sometimes have nine lives, but defeated Senatorial candidates rarely do, and in his career running for statewide office, Coleman has lost to a professional wrestler, beaten a dead guy, and then tied a comedian."
Submitted by Sam Wang (not verified) on Mon Jan. 5, 2009 8:08 PM PST.
Hey - those estimates were highly data-driven, not guesses! Still, thank you for noticing.
As for being a "professional," that means getting paid for this kind of thing. I have yet to see that happen.
Kevin,
Ummmm...
I believe I indisputably beat James Shearer for the second place prize.
While we both guessed 264 EV's:
- Shearer predicted 260 House seats and 59 Senate seats.
- I predicted 258 House seats and 58 Senate seats.
That means Shearer was off by 3 House seats and 0 Senate seats, while I was off by 1 House seat and 1 Senate seat.
Thus, I'm not sure what possible criteria would give Shearer the prize over me, unless you are taking lessons from Katherine Harris...
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However, I do concede the first place prize to Wang, which doesn't make me particularly happy, considering my long-standing problems with Wang's methodology and claims.
Thus, I'm not sure what possible criteria would give Shearer the prize over me, ...
Since there are 100 Senators and 435 Representatives each Senator is worth 4.35 Representatives. Or in other words my relative error was less.
Submitted by Legacy on Tue Jan. 6, 2009 9:20 AM PST.
Just for the record, here's how I did it. After I got my list of everyone who predicted 364 electoral votes, I looked for people who got either the House or the Senate exactly right and were fairly close on the other house. That was Sam and James. Your prediction was impressive, Petey, but getting at least one of congressional picks exactly right won the day.
Submitted by Petey (not verified) on Tue Jan. 6, 2009 10:52 AM PST.
Since I have a better developed sense of grace than Norm Coleman, I will fully concede the race despite my issues with the decisions made by the election board.
And viva Intrade! May it it live for many election cycles to come! When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. And Intrade is like taking candy a baby.
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