Cars vs. Cash

| Mon Mar. 30, 2009 10:48 AM PDT
In one sense, I was surprised and impressed by Barack Obama's auto bailout announcement this morning.  He was, appropriately I think, fairly tough.  From GM, he insisted that they fire their CEO and submit a tougher restructuring plan.  From Chrysler, he insisted that they consummate a deal with Fiat and said flatly that they'd be allowed to go under if they didn't.  This is appropriate: a private investor wouldn't treat Chrysler and GM identically, and there's no reason the federal government should either.

Still, it's hard not to do a double take at his actual words:

"We cannot, we must not, and we will not let our auto industry simply vanish. . . . It is a pillar of our economy that has held up the dreams of millions of our people. But we also cannot continue to excuse poor decisions. And we cannot make the survival of our auto industry dependent on an unending flow of tax dollars. These companies — and this industry — must ultimately stand on their own, not as wards of the state."

In the same way that GM is different from Chrysler, the banking industry is different from the auto industry.  Still and all, don't you wish that Obama were willing to treat bankers the same way he's treating the carmakers?  It's pretty much impossible not to compare his tough words this morning with the conciliatory tone and even more conciliatory actions he's taken with the financial industry.

As for the news that the stock market plunged on the news, spare me.  Investors are idiots if they think this is bad news.  A tougher restructuring plan is better in the long run for everyone but the auto industry's bondholders, and I'll bet that even most of them have either hedged their positions or else sold off their holdings at 70 cents on the dollar to speculators.  Save your tears for someone else.

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Kevin Drum is a political blogger for Mother Jones. For more of his stories, click here.

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Comments

You can stop right there

Investors are idiots

Damn, thersites beat me to

Damn, thersites beat me to it.

Cars vs. Cash

I think the reason Obama is not treating banks like the auto industry is that the financial industry is much more involved in the government and giving donations to politicos. These people know where the largesse comes from. Not to mention Goldman Sachs' DNA runs through all government. As for investors, they don't like it when government gets in, unless it's to give them boatloads of money (without too many caveats). The market rises when bailouts and money are thrown at it.

Different Industries

As countless people have pointed out, the auto and financial industries are simply too different to us a "one approach fits all" solution. Bush et al. let Lehman go under and the entire world financial system locked up overnight. In some ways you could say this was a credit to Bush and Paulson in that they at least were trying to stick with their principles, but history will likely record it as one of the worst decisions made during the crisis. It's sad, and it's unfair, and it's a lot of other things, but the fact is that we can shoehorn Chrysler with Fiat, can push GM towards Chapter 11 -- or some equally heavy-handed solution TBD -- and the world will go on. As Kevin noted a few months ago, there's about 25% worldwide overcapacity in automobile production so some companies have to fail or shrink significantly. Every country trying to prop up their domestic auto industry would be the 21st century version of "beggar thy neighbor." Mind you, I'm pretty sad GM and the Swedish government let my beloved Saab go under. So UAW members get shafted while NY City bankers have to sell their third home and cut back to one nanny. Necessary for now, but a good argument for seriously addressing compensation and a more distributory tax code once the crisis is past.

In the same way that GM is

In the same way that GM is different from Chrysler, the banking industry is different from the auto industry. Still and all, don't you wish that Obama were willing to treat bankers the same way he's treating the carmakers? Well, quite a few banks have gone out of business in the past few months, I believe. And it's not clear to me that Obama won't treat the big money center banks more harshly once he possesses the legal authority and the money from Congress to do what needs to be done. Let's not forget, even if Obama were to appoint Paul Krugman as bank restructuring czar this very afternoon, the latter would be powerless to act unless/until new legislation is enacted. As usual, I think we're all underestimating the president.

"We cannot, we must not, and

"We cannot, we must not, and we will not let our auto industry simply vanish. . . . It is a pillar of our economy that has held up the dreams of millions of our people. But we also cannot continue to excuse poor decisions." Which is why I was so glad to hear Obama talk about his leadership in providing low interest guaranteed gov't loans to Tesla, Aptera, and other early stage green car manufacturers as well as to other competitors or suppliers to GM and Chrysler. Wait, wut, he didn't do that? LOL, Once again, he's showing us he just doesn't get it. And if Rick Wagoner can go, how about the CEOs and boards of all the banksters.

The real idiots are..

Investors are idiots if they think this is bad news. Only idiots would report that the market is going down because of this, or any other single event. Of course, these are the idiots who are also supposed to be the watchdogs. Sigh

"As usual, I think we're all

"As usual, I think we're all underestimating the president." Remember, he's playing 19 dimensional chess here, why calculating tensor integrals, unifying string theory, twittering, and pooping. The guy is just amazing -- there's no way we can understand what's going on.

"In the same way that GM is

"In the same way that GM is different from Chrysler, the banking industry is different from the auto industry." Why? If this global economy bullshit is to be trusted, why do we need American banks anymore than we need American clothing manufacturers? Mike

Set-Up

Personally, I'm tending to side with those who think this is a set-up for a doing the same thing in the finance industry the next time they come asking for money. It also will likely make other businesses/industries think twice before getting in the bailout line. I'm thinking this move was very carefully thought through. PS. the market isn't responding to the auto bailout news, the market is responding to rumblings that first quarter numbers (due over the course of the next few weeks) are going to be ugly. The market moves actually started on Friday, if you were paying attention. Only morons didn't see this for the suckers rally that it was.

What TLM said ...

Right now, in the short run, we need the financial industry to infuse the economy with credit. That makes this not a particularly good time to take them to the woodshed, no matter how much they deserve it. And on the flip side, saving some viable part of our auto industry matters more in the long run. If Citi dissolves in a couple of years, no one will care, because it will easily be replaced, but if Detroit dissolves that capacity will be gone for good.

I want the individual bank

I want the individual bank CEO's and 'bad' division heads to be canned just like the GM CEO was. Let the banks stay, but get rid of the existing heads! Instead the frigging bank execs have people convinced that they are 'critical' and they deserve retention 'bonuses' just to stay on during the mess they created. I see this as a personal thing. The selected AIG (and other) executives have a special place in our society. Not only are they not accountable to anyone, even if they fail they are so 'special' they must be paid extra to keep working. Seriously. I want to see their names and faces on a deck of cards. I want a website showing their mugshots like some counties do with their petty criminals. I'll admit I'm angry and bitter because not only did I see this coming, I personally have been laid off to enrich the corporate fatcats, so I have a dog in this fight, and I admit it. The double standard at this time really gets my goat. In our current system the US worker bees are seen as a drain on corporations and can do no right, and the executives are 'special' and can do no wrong. Even when the execs actually do literal 'wrong' they must be given bonuses so they will stay to fix the problems they created. Where is the justice in that? Where is the fairness in that? Where is the karma in that? This current system is whacked and most people seem to be able to see it but nobody seems to be able to change it.

Tripp: I personally have

Tripp: I personally have been laid off to enrich the corporate fatcats, so I have a dog in this fight, and I admit it. Nothing to admit - everyone has a dog in this fight. Sorry about your job loss.

Got it in one.

Investors are idiots. They've proved this time and again. Just ignore them and they'll stop whinging.

The difference is striking.

The political power of the finance "industry" has overwhelmed Washington. As much as I'd like to think the dismissal of Wagoner is a set up for rolling heads on Wall St., I think this administration is as much in thrall to the myth of finance as those recently past. I'm with Simon Johnson; it's well past time to bring down the oligarchs and put finance in its rightful place as a tool to support real productivity. If Rick Wagoner had to go, why not Ken Lewis? And I think Detroit automakers have done a better job of running their businesses than Citibank et al have with theirs. That's not saying much, and Detroit has been myopic in the extreme, but one real problem with Detroit now is that we have a demand crisis; no one has money to buy cars, no matter where they're from. Over the last few years, Detroit automakers have made some real changes for the better and could be reaping the rewards now, if there were buyers.

We accept you, one of us.

Taxpayer and jrw above correctly describe the situation, Wall St. and Washington are so intertwined at this point, it's hard to differentiate. They go to the same schools , they take the same jobs, they are related to each other, not to speak of the money that goes from NYC to D.C. People in manufacturing, on the other hand, might as well as be from another planet. Obama will not take on the bankers in a way that threatens their lifestyles or statuses, you can bank on that.

Thanks Alex.

Alex, Thanks for the kind words. I'm not too worried - with all modesty I've got skillz and a wealth of contacts and some really great friends, so long term my job prospects are good. And you know what? Working for India Business Machines was getting to be a real drag, a dismal dreary drag. I've seen some real job prospects for the 21st century, in the health care and biotech field, and there is no comparison between working in a place that is vibrant with life and working in a place that is like a nursing home where people are waiting to die. You wanna hear something very bizarre. India Business Machines applied for a patent for a computer program that optimized off-shoring with tax codes to figure out the best way to move jobs from the US to Bangalore and Beijing. I kid you not: http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090330/BIZ/9033... Sheesh. Shee-effing-eesh.

g powell, Yeah, and the

g powell, Yeah, and the problem for the rest of us is that when an economy moves from raw materials through manufacturing and into finance the end may be near. There needs to be a balance, and our financial sector has gotten out of whack. Some people have been fooled into thinking their money can work for them. That works, but only in the short run. In the long run wealth flows to where the work is being done.

Screwing unions better than Bush: "Change you can believe in"?

The one constant in the Obama administration’s treatment of these different industries is an extraordinary amount of protectiveness towards corporate executives and an equally extraordinary disdain towards workers, particularly blue collar union workers. I could not help noticing that all of the "shared sacrifices" involved in saving GM will be shared by the taxpayers, shareholders, bond holders, and, of course, the silly little blue collar workers who pathetically cling to their middle class existence yet do all the actual manufacturing.   Naturally, Obama does not require top executives of GM to participate in the aforementioned "shared sacrificing" and “haircuts” by having their generous health care benefits and multi-million dollar retirement plans “renegotiated” because of the inviolability of (non-union) contracts.  Silly little workers. Silly little people who work with their dirty hands. Silly little people who always worked hard, believed in the system and played by the rules all their lives. Silly little people who built this country. Silly little workers who vote a solid Democratic ticket and supported Obama. So silly: Should’ve gone to Harvard or Yale, and then maybe into finance or journalism. This is change only in the sense that he is giving better speeches than Bush.   Screwing taxpayers, shareholders, bondholders out of their money and workers out of their money, jobs, health care and retirement isn’t exactly what I’d call “change you can believe in”.  Mitch Guthman

And you know what? Working for India Business Machines....

Tripp, Sorry to hear about your layoff from India Business Machines. My husband was laid off from the same company (research) in 2005 through a resource action (after 23-1/2 years). About 1-1/2 years before a bridge to pension benefits would have kicked in. What a zoo that company is. I'm sure you read the Alliance site for commiseration, right?

Sinners repent, for the end

Sinners repent, for the end is near. GM's demise is sort of like watching a train wreck that took 40 years to unfold. So predictable.

70cents on the dollar?

Kevin, that figure is delusional. I have some Ford bonds in an IRA, last week Ford offered $.30 on the dollar! And that is the healthy auto company! I can only imagine that similar bonds from GM are worth maybe seven cents on the dollar. Perhaps they are paying $.70 for some short term senior debt. My Ford bonds were sold as a consevative triple A investment. There never is a good time to get out, by the time the bond holder realizes the company/bond may not be good, the price has already gone down a lot. If you believe in efficeny markets, then it as always a wash whether selling is the right move. So, most of the victims are just ordinary Joes, sold something that even the broker thought was conservative.... In any case, this has been coming for a very long time. But, it is still a sad and scary thing to watch. Tripp, my former Boss, was working for India Business Machines, and got laid off as well. Fortunately for me, his attempt to hire me at IBM several years ago failded, or I'd be in your same position.

You need to get over this

You need to get over this S'mall is yesterday" idea. Bear Stearns's problem was teh amount of leverage it was allowed to to take on, and the number of marklets it was allowed to play in. These must be restricted.

Cars vs Cash

I guess he's the decider, huh.

Wall Street vs auto industry

Would someone at least ask who in Obama's economic team is coming up with the suggestions for the auto industry? The last time I heard it was Geither. That would go a long way in explaining the double standard for the auto industry and Wall Street.

Perspective and populist anger

Here is some of my perspective, but for those who don't know me, here is my background. I'm an Engineer by training, but found that work boring and switched to computer programming, where people were weird but not boring. I've been plugged into the net for years and years, mostly studying different topics, usually those that affect me. That is how I started watching finance and politics. By nature I dislike politics and would be perfectly happy not to get involved if I wasn't getting screwed. I started out as tending Republican, but the Republican party left me when they started courting the whacko authoritarian followers - specifically when Pat Buchanan and Pat Roberston declared that there was a cultural war in America against the 'Christians.' So on to my perspective. A healthy and ideal America would have raw materials (I count our agriculture in that mix), labor, manufacturing, and finance. At the moment a working financial market is the most critical thing to restore, for obvious reasons. BUT I think we need to make sure the culprits in this case are punished. Keep and help the banks, but punish the culpable executives themselves. We need to decouple the executives from the institutions. Seriously. I want a deck of cards with the bad fatcats pictures on it. I assert the culpable executives have done much more damage to the US and the world than bin Laden ever did. In terms of disruption and loss bin Laden is a piker compared to the CEOs and others, and yet nobody is addressing that! Don't let the CEOs get away with claiming that they themselves are the banks, and since we need banks we need the culpable CEOs. Obama inherited the initial $700 Billion bailout of Wall Street, and had nothing to do with it. I hope that future Obama action will punish the responsible executives while saving the banks. I want to see banks execs identified and appropriately punished. So what about the rest of us little guys? Populist anger will continue until the double-standard is addressed, but populist anger will be expressed as heated talks with one's friends and tut-tutting on the internet, which changes nothing. There will a revolution, of course, if the double standard is ignored and when things get worse, but that is still a long way off. People will need to start hurting, and start hurting bad before anything real happens. I mean like children starving in the US. In the meantime our youth are embracing the values of the hippie generation. Most youth claim to dislike hippies but are stating the exact same values - do what you love because you'll have no way to make money anyway. Corporations have lost all goodwill, but they really don't care, because when you have the power you have no reason to care. So if I was President I would address the double standard, punish the culpable individuals, and support the required institutions. Oh yeah, and a pony for everyone. Tripp

India Business Machines

bigTom, Thanks. None of us can be truly objective about ourselves, but I do know that one of the best managers I ever worked with, brilliant, articulate, and with excellent people skills was laid off when I was. That made me feel a little better. Based on my insider knowledge I think older workers were targeted, and especially those of us with over 30 years of service to the company, because I was told a few times 'at least you have your pension.' India Business Machines called this my 'retirement,' and offered to spend $150 for coffee and cake in the cafeteria to 'celebrate.' I declined, and asked that the money be donated to our local food shelf. India Business Machines said they had no way to do that. A form letter I received after my lay off from India Business Machines said "Congratulations on your recent retirement!" So people are supposed to see me as 'retired,' and I am supposed to be happy, because I am one of the last to have a pension. Well, yes, I have a pension, but it is small, and I don't draw on that for at least thirteen more years, when my planned retirement at age 65 would rest on three legs - pension, Social Security, and 401K. Each of those is looking shaky at this time. But I want to work, and I've got skillz, and at age 52 in good health I still have a lot of contributions in me, so long term I am optimistic, but short term I do have populist anger. Tripp

Hi Tripp

Tripp, same here. I'm an EE that took "early retirement" from HP almost 2 years ago. I wasn't ready to retire, but they offered money and a cashout from my pension. I figured it was better to leave with some money than get booted later with nothing. Turns out to have been a good bet, my old division recently took a 90% layoff. For years now, we have been masking the lack of real wage growth and employment opportunities by blowing bubble after bubble. The system is set up so that if you work an honest job, you are a chump. the only way to get ahead is by using leverage of some sort, be it a 0% down neg am loan, a 2X short ETF, or the state lottery. Honest work aint going to get it done. And that has got to get fixed. the blowhards in DC and NYC just figure if enough BigCos can get bailed out, we can get back to status quo ante. Not going to happen. The whole system, from Bejing to Baltimore, is set up so that US consumers take on more debt to buy stuff from overseas. And consumers are up to their eyeballs in debt, they aren't borrowing more until they can pay their bills and save a little. And that won't happen until work pays for the bottom 95%--the very folks the 1% on top insists on continuing screwing. So we are presently stuck. The toppies wont' take the slightest haircut on their wealth and privileges, but until they share, this economy isn't going anywhere. So it is likely to get worse before it gets better. If it gets better. I'm sure that people in 1780s France and 1920s Germany thought that "it can't happen here". We are not immune. As for contributing, yes I would like to. Nobody in corporate america is going to hire a 57YO engineer, no matter how good I am at what I do. My consulting business dried up and blew away. I used to say that I would like to do something more useful to the world than make machines to turn Douglas Firs into corporate memos (I worked in a printer division). Green energy? Who knows? Maybe something there. Best wishes

other auto and auto parts

other auto and auto parts dealers simply vanish.. but still Obama wont stop in providing low interest guaranteed to other green car makers as well as to other car dealers such as Chysler and GM

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