Quagmire

| Thu Mar. 5, 2009 9:12 AM PST
Matt Yglesias reads Time magazine and writes:

Joe Klein’s article on the situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan is informative, but doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. It seems that military planners want the Obama administration to dispatch further additional troops to Afghanistan over and above the plus-up that’s already been announced. But nobody really knows what the mission of these troops would be.

.... Just about everyone seems to agree that the more serious problems are actually in Pakistan...and they’re ultimately political in nature — related to the willingness and capability of the Pakistani government to take on Taliban groups in border areas and, importantly, related to public opinion in Pakistan regarding priorities.

He's right.  Klein's article is here, and it's dismal reading.  I never really thought the Vietnam analogy was apt in the case of the Iraq war, but in the case of Afghanistan it seems to fit all too well: troop increases every year, diminishing success rates, no real strategy in place, and major problems with neighboring countries.  Unlike Iraq, destroying al-Qaeda's ability to wage war is obviously in our national interest.  But until someone produces a credible plan for accomplishing this, it's difficult to see what we're doing there.

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Comments

You are vastly overstating

You are vastly overstating how much it is in our national interest to reduce al-Qaeda's capabilities. Sure, if we had a time machine, it would make sense to go back and do this in 2000 or 2001. However, now that they have virtually no capability, and now that we know it is a bad idea to let them pilot our airliners, what is the point?

Military employment

Has anyone else had the thought that bringing a lot of troops home and turning them loose at a time of high unemployment - could make things even more difficult right now? Do we have enough people (including contractors/support staff) tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan to tip the already sensitive situation? I've actually wondered if some foot dragging might be related to this.

No Draft

A flood of workers is not going to be a problem because the military hasn't bulked up and the "bi-partisan" consensus is that the military should remain about the same size it is today. http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0004598.html

mission clarity not that hard to find

NPR did a lengthy piece on the mission in Afghanistan this morning, focusing on training Afghani border guards to keep a better eye on the porous Pakistani frontier. The Afghanis are eager to learn, and the U.S. troops and personnel are eager to teach, but the usual language and cultural barriers are slowing things down. Counterinsurgency is really hard, but we're getting the hang of it. As for unemployment and the military, I understand that the Corps of Engineers needs manpower to help build and erect more wind turbines.

We're already past this point

I'd agree with the point that we need a strategy beyond dumping in more troops, except that Obama is already reviewing strategy, so it seems we've already won the debate over whether there should be a new strategy. The question is, now that additional troops might buy us more time, what should the new strategy be? This would seem to be the time when input is most useful. http://www.ravensblog.net

But until someone produces a

But until someone produces a credible plan for accomplishing this, it's difficult to see what we're doing there. C'mon, Kevin. Don't be such an America-bashing commie. Surely you can see the value in preventing the Taliban from controlling 300,000 square miles of territory instead of the mere 200,000 square miles they already control.

Nonsense

Do you have any basis for your stats or just made it up? No need to really answer. It's obvious to people who know.

How to win in Afghanistan

tagged as: 
Send in the Marines, but not to invade and shoot up the place: have the Marines implement their Combined Action Program that they developed in Vietnam, used in Kosovo, and demonstrated in Anbar Province in Iraq. The Combined Action Program ignores the cities and starts working village to village in the countryside to provide security and infrastructure that lets these people live their lives securely. The Marines provide sanitation support, minor health care, and assist in transporting crops to market. In return, the people help keep the bad guys away. The Hezbollah do the same thing in Lebanon. Hamas worked this way. You start with a few villages, work with the next village, and slowly spread until you provide security and infrastructure for the whole country, with their traditional authorities respected and supported.

Welcome to the Stan

You make no mention of the tangled web of tribal loyalties. Nothing is that simple in Afghanistan. What crops? What infrastructure? It sounds like you are tearing a page out of the Special Operations Unconventional Warfare Manual which they have been practicing all over the world since 1952. Nothing new to that approach.

Not really

"But nobody really knows what the mission of these troops would be." I beg to differ. Maybe you don't know what their mission is. Geez do you think we have forgotten everything we've learned from 8 years of fighting two seperate insurgencies? The Vietnam comparison is soooooo wore out. You tried to make the same analogy in Iraq and it failed. Now the media is ramping it up for Afghanistan. The big difference is that we now accept, grasp and excell at guerilla/counter insurgency. As long as politicians listen to their commanders concerns it will be alright. Tough, trial and error, one step forward and two backwards are all phrases we need to come to grips with over the next 5-10years. "troop increases every year, diminishing success rates, no real strategy in place, and major problems with neighboring countries." well if it was that easy it would there would be no more war would there? There are many many many success stories in Afghanistan. Far more than the media gives credit... another Iraq tactic of the media. Starting to see a pattern? "Just about everyone seems to agree that the more serious problems are actually in Pakistan...and they’re ultimately political in nature — related to the willingness and capability of the Pakistani government to take on Taliban groups in border areas" This segment is missing half it's content. Everybody agrees that you can't seperate Afghanistans problems from the problem in Pakistan. Nobody with any sense is picking one over the other. What if Pakistan clamps down on the Taliban and we don't have a stable Afghanistan? What are we going to do? Keep chasing our tail around? That is absurd. And the Pakis are going to have to take on the Taliban/AQ with a combination of military and political solutions which need out direct support. So how can it be ultamitely a "political" solution? If past and current political attempts at reeling in the Taliban are any sort of barometer for success I would say that more military action is required. That is the only way to bring them to the table. Nice try on trying to paint such a bleak picture.

Why?

Pres. Obama tends to begin with 'goals' which is good. It lets lots of policy-makers discuss without being bogged down in military minutae. Just what are our goals? Crush Al Qaeda? How big are they? Where are they? Who leads them? How do they survive? If they're entangled with Taleban and others then how do we get to them? Protect a secular Pakistani government to keep us safe from the "Islamic bomb"? That is definitely a longer-term expensive project which should require help from many nations who have every reason to think that bomb is a bad idea. Same for Iran really. Goals, ideas of how to achieve them and strategic concepts can lead to a dynamic solution over time if a short-term tactical solution isn't available. We use economic sanctions in many places to avoid having to use more force. We use diplomacy a lot. We cajole a lot. We buy partnerships. There are a lot of tools and how one uses them together can make the difference. In this case however, I don't think we're going to talk them out of their idea that jihad should be done militarily. These aren't intellectual jihadists. One other important point I'd mention with regard to using the military: it's their home field, but we're used to playing on a global scale. We should turn their terrain into a difficult ground for them to maintain. Let their environment become hostile, so we don't have to fight mano a mano in a manner they're most good at. Let's be smart at setting the battle and not just macho.

Finally...

Finally... thumbs up.

send Sleep he is full of

send Sleep he is full of ideas and ready to make a ten year commitment to Afghanistan

Been there and going back

FYI been there and am going back shortly. I enjoy Afghanistan much more than Iraq. I like the people better, arabs suck. I like the wild rugged countryside. I like the freedom and wide open spaces. I get to do pretty much what I want. I get to kill bad guys and help suffering people. I get to drop my drawers and take a dump wherever I please. At least I have been there. People like you can only pretend to know what you are talking about through surfing the web and history books. But as our liberal friends are constantly reminding us that the history books are false accounts and the web... Maybe you can take a trip to Khandahar or the the NW frontier sometime. Actually get a feel for things on the ground then bounce that off of what you read on blogs. It might give you a broader perspective if not change your mind.

I believe that it's

I believe that it's essential to take into account the histories of both Afghanistan and Pakistan when analyzing the so-called war in Afghanistan. The entire history of Afghanistan and the history of the relations between the governments of Pakistan and the inhabitants of its northwest area both serve as severe warnings of the impending disaster in the US policies in Afghanistan. If in fact, Bin Laden is holed up in northwestern Pakistan, his move would have to be characterized as a master stroke.

I believe that it's

I believe that it's essential to take into account the histories of both Afghanistan and Pakistan when analyzing the so-called war in Afghanistan. The entire history of Afghanistan and the history of the relations between the governments of Pakistan and the inhabitants of its northwest area both serve as severe warnings of the impending disaster in the US policies in Afghanistan. If in fact, Bin Laden is holed up in northwestern Pakistan, his move would have to be characterized as a master stroke.

you missed my point

Do you have any basis for your stats or just made it up? No need to really answer. Sleep: My point wasn't to accurately get into specifics on SW Asian geography. I was making a point: namely, we know that the Taliban dominate a significant chunk of that part of the world (that is, thousands of square miles of territory straddling both sides of the border). Correct? So, what is it that the Taliban/AQ would be able to accomplish if they were to get a hold of an additional X thousand square miles of Afghan territory (ie., if the worst case scenario transpires should we pull out) that they can't already accomplish with the thousands of square miles of territory they currently control? I mean, surely they already have enough territory to maintain terrorist camps. What does another X thousand square miles of land get them, and how does that threaten America? My point, in short, is what the hell are we doing over there? What's the purpose of the mission? Thank you for your service, by the way.

What we are doing...

Jasper, I understand it now. The fact is they don't own squat. They come in the night and force their way into compounds then threaten the owners if they resist. Thousands of square miles of emptiness is just that, emptiness. Whomever occupies the ground they are standing on owns it until they move on until somebody else "owns" it. But your point is taken. I am trying to figure out why people don't understand why we are there. Doesn't anybody remember 9/11, Kenya, Yemen, Madrid, London,...anymore? We cannot go back in time to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and change what happened. Since that moment the destiny of our countries was sealed. We are there to finish off AQ and those who give them safe haven and support. We are there to help the Afghani's rise out of the clutches of internal civil war as a country. In doing so we secure our own country because we deny AQ and extremists like the taliban a safe haven from which to plan further attacks like 9/11. We abandoned Afghanistan and Pakistan once before and look what happened. We should not repeat the same mistake again. We can't afford it.

...

... they managed to kill over 3,000 americans in the matter of a few hours with thousands of miles of emptiness under their control. Last thing is the psychological effect. We can't give them a victory in Afghanistan. We would suffer that consequence 1000 fold in the form of emboldened jihad all over the world. That is why they fight the hardest there. It is the alamo for AQ and they know it.

turns out I was fairly accurate

Sleep: FWIW, your calling out my (admittedly guesstimated) figures peaked by curiosity, so I did myself some googling. According to this 12/08 Bloomberg article http://www.ccun.org/News/2008/December/10%20n/Taliban%20Control%2072%25%... the Taliban control 72%, or about 180k square miles, of the country's 251k square miles. If you lump that in with their Pakistan holdings, my original figures were, um, pretty much spot on (although that's entirely coincidental, because again, I freely admit I was just guesstimating to illustrate my argument). So, dismissing my point based on what you claim is my inaccuracy won't do. Because I was pretty accurate (although, just to repeat, my point doesn't rest on whether I get my figures correct to the nearest, say, 10k square miles; my point rests on the fact that the Taliban already control a big corner of that corner of the world, and the possibility they'll get a bit more doesn't obviously present any grave security risks for the United States). Do you have a substantive argument to make?

I am trying to figure out

I am trying to figure out why people don't understand why we are there. Doesn't anybody remember 9/11, Kenya, Yemen, Madrid, London,...anymore? Sleep: we all remember it. It's just not obvious that fighting a war in Afghanistan is the way to prevent it. The track record of western powers in Afghanistan isn't exactly confidence-inducing. I think we may have to resign ourselves to once in a blue moon going in and bombing the snot out of their camps. We don't need to control Afghanistan for that, do we?. Fighting a land war in that (or indeed in almost any part) of the Asian landmass looks hopeless. Seems to me a wise general once warned us against that... Anyway, God Speed, and watch your back.

True that

Thanks, I will definately do my best. I can't leave depart our debate without a few comments. Bombing never solves anything in warfare, it is a bandaid at best. It is the occupying of key terrain and the denial of the people's will to support an insurgency that wins the day. People are less likely to see your point of view if all you do is drop bombs, it's different when they see you face to face on the ground. That is where relationships are built. We are not doomed to repeat history. Remember that. I hope we look back on this in 5-10 years and say that it was neccessary and worth it. The next dirty bomb or bio chemical attack is being planned for right now in a mud brick hut along the Afghan Paki border. You can bet on it. Just my opinion and I am very opinionated Later

Don't believe everything you read...

Jasper- how do you think they came up with a percentage like 72%? What scientific means do they have of proving that? The numbers are fudged. The fact is that most of Afghanistan is a vast lawless domain where ancient tribal tradition are the general rule. Read the previous post. Like I said thousands of square miles of emptiness is just emptiness. Just because a band of thugs and thieves roam around from time to time does not make it theirs. The media just need to plug numbers and percentages because they haven't a clue. If a man steals a car in NYC is the whole city under siege from car thieves? I challenge any numbers like the one's in the report you quoted. The media is very slanted. If you dig around you will find many who support what I am saying as well. If you base your argument solely on the occupation of ground then you are right. But as we all know Afghanistan has borders and has its own government. Therefore protection of soverignty is a huge issue. Every human needs a place of refuge. They can't float around in space time. Extremists need a secure tangible bit of ground at some point to take care of basic human needs. The intent is to deny them that place. Again, we saw what can happen if we don't. We are at war. Why would you allow your enemy a safe place on earth from which to plan his next assault on you? That makes no sense.

On the ground and not a blog

"At times, I feel as though I spend a majority of my day talking to Afghans rather than Americans. Over a game of Karambull (not sure on the spelling) with the interpreters, the Afghan born American interpreter Tammim tells me of how he used to play the game when he was a kid in Afghanistan. That was before the Soviets invaded of course. Tammim, an American, but also an Afghan, offers a rare insight into the day to day discussions and events taking place in our area of operations. While he spins the disc of the shuffleboard style Karambull game, he tells me how the Soviets needed a hundred tanks if they wanted to cross the nearby Khost-Gardez (KG) Pass road without getting demolished. All along the road lies evidence of the Soviet tactics of simply bombing Afghan homes and villages. Nowhere is it clearer than the KG Pass road, how different the American approach has been compared to the Soviet approach. Those same roads now feature District Centers and clinics built by the US Agency for International Development, schools and bridges built by the American Provincial Reconstruction Team. The economic progress will slowly but surely advance into the most rural, remote portions of Afghanistan. But even with some limited progress evident on the main route, Tammim worries for the future of the Afghan people. “These people want to know that the Americans are going to stay and fulfill their commitment,” Tammim said. “That we’re (the Americans) not just going to pack our bags and leave like we did after the Soviets left. Until then, we will not have the security.” Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

I went over to the comments

I went over to the comments thread at CNN and discovered to my amazement that the vast majority of posters were turned off by the speech. A lot of them claimed to be independents. I am not too worried about the speech.

The Marines provide

The Marines provide sanitation support, minor health care, and assist in transporting crops to market. In return, the people help keep the bad guys away. The Hezbollah do the same thing in Lebanon. Hamas worked this way.rolex watches.

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