In The Blogs

How to Read Poll Results

| Mon Apr. 6, 2009 9:01 AM PDT

Consider the poll question below, from a CNN survey emailed to me this morning. If it is to be believed, 95% of all Americans have an opinion about Turkey. Question: Is it to be believed? Do you think 95% of Americans could even find Turkey on a map?

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Kevin Drum is a political blogger for Mother Jones. For more of his stories, click here.

Comments

I am surprised that so many

Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon Apr. 6, 2009 9:16 AM PDT.

I am surprised that so many people like turkey. Personally, I find it kind of dry, though my friends that are chefs tell me that may be an artifact of poor preparation. Nonetheless, I'm glad I don't see it much outside of Thanksgiving and that winter season holiday.

Exactly, did they clarify

Submitted by Aaron (not verified) on Mon Apr. 6, 2009 9:23 AM PDT.

Exactly, did they clarify that they meant Turkey the country, not turkey the poultry?

Do we know how many people

Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon Apr. 6, 2009 9:47 AM PDT.

Do we know how many people they surveyed? I hate surveys that say "95% of all Americans blah blah blah" based on the concept of a representative sample. A few thousand people can't really be a representative sample of the whole country. Even many many thousands - it still depends on who is asked and, out of those, who chooses to answer. So....no. Don't put much stock in it. Plus, even with anonymity people will lie to sound smart.

It tastes like chic...never mind.

Submitted by Cazart on Mon Apr. 6, 2009 10:04 AM PDT.

Now if you'd asked us about gravy...

I suspect that it's

Submitted by Benjamin Bartlett (not verified) on Mon Apr. 6, 2009 10:12 AM PDT.

I suspect that it's accurate, in the sense that most Americans probably do have a vaguely positive feeling about Turkey---it's generally portrayed in the media as the Muslim country that works, and as an ally---but that's about as far as it goes. I doubt most people know much about Turkey, or where it is on a map.

Absolutely, Kevin...

Submitted by Wagster on Mon Apr. 6, 2009 10:15 AM PDT.

I used to be a poll interviewer in college (NYT, NBC, Harris.) About 20% of the people you speak to are sleep-walking through the interview. They're too polite to hang up, but they're not really interested in what you're asking. They are moms trying to put dinner on the table, corral their kids, and sneak a peek at the tube all the time they're talking to you. Once I even spoke to someone that was having sex while doing the survey. Figure that the sleepwalking crowd splits even between Dems and Reps, so it might not affect the headline results, but with a question like this, it has an impact. Likewise, it doesn't impress me much when polls announce that such-and-such a percent of the population doesn't know some basic fact. They're just not bothering, that's all.

A few thousand people can't

Submitted by Aaron S. Veenstra (not verified) on Mon Apr. 6, 2009 10:48 AM PDT.

A few thousand people can't really be a representative sample of the whole country. Yes it can, within a margin of error of +/- X%. It's a pretty basic principle of statistics.

It's spelled turkee, you

Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon Apr. 6, 2009 10:57 AM PDT.

It's spelled turkee, you moran!

Finding Turkey

Submitted by optical weenie on Mon Apr. 6, 2009 12:14 PM PDT.

Do you think 95% of Americans could even find Turkey on a map? Why yes sure, Turkey is right next to the Cranberry Islands.

Turkey.

Submitted by flubber on Mon Apr. 6, 2009 12:27 PM PDT.

Turkey has killed more Kurds than Saddam Hussein did. When Turkey does it, they are defending their sovereignty from a violent, terrorist secessionist movement. I don't know enough to have an opinion either way. But I think the difference in treatment between Turkey (an ally, friend of Israel, with US military bases) and Iraq (once we wanted to invade them) is illustrative of how easy it is to control the media narrative. You don't need overt government control or censor of the media, the media will report what the government says, and there you are. (As for *why* is there no critical reporting, there are lots of theories).

I heard Russia was Hungary

Submitted by Trippp on Mon Apr. 6, 2009 3:01 PM PDT.

I heard Russia was Hungary so it ate Turkey in Greece. But come on - my Dad's generation knew about Turkey from Casa Blanca. My generation knew about it from Indiana Jones. The youngsters, I dunno, maybe that James Bond flick with that hottie who screwed the neck screw into James? Tripp

No Surprise Here

Submitted by Keith G on Mon Apr. 6, 2009 3:14 PM PDT.

I would guess the pool numbers are valid about the general population’s views. Whether or not those view represent the real world may be another issue. Look, in a world with many “scary” Mulims, Turkey gets relatively good press. They are touted as friendly to Israel and to not have a negative gut instinct reaction to most US policy in the area. This is not surprising.