Election Day

| Mon May. 18, 2009 7:35 AM PDT

Tomorrow is special election day here in California and lots of people have been emailing me to ask how I'm going to vote on the miserable collection of propositions on the ballot.  The honest answer is that I don't know.  Staying home seems like the best alternative right now.  It's hard to remember an election in which voters were given quite such a stark choice between bad and worse.

Besides, the polls say almost all the propositions are going to lose.  So it hardly matters.  Still, here's where I am right now:

Prop 1A - Spending Cap: NO.  Lots of other states have spending cap/rainy day fund requirements of various kinds, and their success seems to be fantastically sensitive to the precise wording of the cap and the way different figures are estimated.  That means 1A could be halfway reasonable or it could be a disaster, and there's really no way to tell in advance.  That's not the kind of thing I want enshrined in the constitution.

Prop 1B - More Spending for Teachers: NO.  This is ballot box budgeting of the worst kind and interest group politics at its most blatant.

Prop 1C: Sell Future Lottery Profits: NO.  This raises a fair amount of money, but it's just horrible, horrible policy.  I can't bring myself to support it.

Props 1D and 1E: Raid Money From a Couple of Previous Initiatives: YES.  Ballot box budgeting locked up this money in the first place, so there's no other way to unlock it.  It would be better to get rid of the original initiatives (and all their kin) entirely, but in the meantime this is the only choice the legislature has.

Prop 1F: No Pay Raises Until a Budget is Passed: NO.  This is just stupid.

That's it.  If you vote exactly the opposite way, I understand.  My views on these initiatives are about as firm as jello right now.  Make your case in comments if you think I'm full of it.

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Kevin Drum is a political blogger for Mother Jones. For more of his stories, click here.

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Comments

It is beyond dishonest to

It is beyond dishonest to say that Prop. 10 and Prop. 63 "lock up money." Both of them created their own funding sources, one with cigarette taxes, the other with a tax on millionaires. Under current state law, you know full well that this revenue wouldn't exist because Republicans would vote against it. It may be ballot box budgeting, but it happens to be the only sensible budgeting there is in the whole state, and raiding the funds will 1) damage successful programs, and 2) cost the state more in the long run because early childhood and mental health programs pay off exponentially. Plus we're talking about less than 1% of the total budget, and less than the giant corporate tax cut the legislature installed in the Feb. budget deal. This is a classic case of "if it ain't broke, break it." This is a case where putting your principle about ballot-box budgeting above actual policy, that it makes sense to fund early childhood ed and mental health, makes no sense at all.

My guess is we will default

My guess is we will default and the state police will start getting paid in building materials scavenged from state prisons. The real question is what post-apocalyptic California will look like. Will the machines revolt and send one of their own back in time to Sacramento to ensure the apocalypse happens? Or something.

We need a Constitutional

We need a Constitutional Convention in California to rewrite the state constitution from scratch. It's ridiculous how easy it is to amend the constitution, and insane that constitutional amendments can pass with a 50% majority and contain clauses requiring 2/3 votes (or other numbers) for other things, or to repeal or amend it. If a measure mandates a 2/3 vote for something, it should need a 2/3 vote to pass in the first place. And the ballot box budgeting is a mess, not to mention the dumb 2/3 legislative budget requirement.

Props 1D and 1E

don't seem to raise enough money to be worth the effort. And passing them will decimate what little preschool and mental health funding we get now. I'm so torn. Where's the prop demanding a constitutional convention? Because that's what we need.

As one of those emailers,

As one of those emailers, I'd say that you're making sense, but I think I might vote a little differently. On 1A, it seems to me that the question is whether or not the short-term risks associated with a huge overnight budget cut outweigh the long-term risks associated with a constitutional spending cap. I honestly have no idea what the right answer to that question is. You're obviously right in theory on B, D, and F. But I wonder, are we far enough down this funding by proposition path that this is the only way to assure reasonable funding for important state programs? At this point, I've invested enough time thinking about this things that I'm voting, even if I toss a coin to make up my mind!

How does Prop 1C work

How does Prop 1C work legally? So CA sells lottery profits to investors...does this commit CA to generating these lottery profits? What if the legislature or a ballot prop want to curtail lotteries next year? Does that mean CA will owe investors for for the money they don't get? Politics, Economics and other Stuff

stumped like Kevin

So why are we in this fix to begin with? The economy sucks but that's only a part of the issue and the feds are helping out a good deal with that. We'd still have to make some pretty significant, painful cuts but nothing on the order of what we're looking at now. The rest of the issue is that we have a structural deficit on the order of $10 billion, which is to say that our revenues are out of line with our expenditures even if this were a normal economic year. For the past twenty years or so, we've been papering over this by paying for the state's operating expenses with short-term bumps in revenue during the boom times and borrowing to cover operating expenses in the bad times. This violates every principle of sound financial management but it's no coincidence that we've been doing this and it's not because of incompetence on the part of the legislature. Why have we been doing this? It's not for lack of a spending cap and it wouldn't be fixed by the cap proposed by 1A. It's because of the 2/3rd budget requirement that forces us into a least common denominator budget solution each year. Without the 2/3rds requirement, taxes might be higher. Or the Dems would be voted out of office for raising taxes as they very clearly would be willing to do if they didn't have to get Republican support. That's how democracy is supposed to work. And it is broken in the state. No responsibility means no accountability. So definitely vote no on A and B. They'll bind the hands of our elected representatives even further, and that's what got us into this mess in the first place. And definitely vote no on F. Legislators are adequately incentivized to pass the budget. They just can't do it because of the 2/3rds requirement. And those Republicans who are holding out generally make dramatically more by doing so than they would lose from this kind of terrible, awful ignorant idea about slapping them on the wrist with a pay freeze. So how do we fix this mess? At this point, part of me says that we've got to dramatize the problem and send a strong signal that the system is broken by voting no on C, D, and E as well. We keep hearing that it's impossible to make the changes that we would need to make to fix the govt (e.g., undoing Prop 13, the 2/3rd vote, and ballot box budgeting) but special times call for special measures. But I'm not sure that a constitutional convention, for example, would create a better system than the one that we have now. So I'll probably end up voting yes on C, D, and E. I am opposed to ballot box budgeting, and D and E undo some of that and send the signal that there is no point in doing it because it will just be undone at the ballot box in later years. And C (more borrowing to cover operating expenses) is bad but not nearly as bad as a alternative proposals that are being advanced by Department of Finance if we don't pass C. (And here I'm not talking about the cuts, just that they'll engage in even worse types of borrowing if we turn back C.) So it's a bad mess, to be sure. And none of the propositions will help us get out of it. The only one that is likely to pass is the initiative that I characterized as a terrible, awful, ignorant idea. Good times.

Could you have...

... a voter initiative to not have voter initiatives any more?

The problem with 1D and 1E

The problem with 1D and 1E is that Props 10 and Prop. 63 are the "good guys" of ballot box programs. Those propositions created programs, but also created their own funding stream... as opposed to countless other props that have just tied California's hands in how they spend their current funds. To go after two well designed programs that have their own funding steams, simply because they operate in the black and can thus be raided, seems to send a very strong message that future props shouldn't bother to create a funding stream. These measure just punish the props that did it right... The right measure would have been to strip out some of the previous props that created unfunded mandates, rather than raid the funded ones. That would have been a small step towards better government here in California... which I would guess is exactly why we don't get that choice. I'd say No on 1D and 1E.

This place is crazy

I'll vote NO on all but would like to vote yes on D& E except I always vote against initiatives because I think they all skew and deform public policy in favor of those with the most money and the loudest voices -- yes, D & D constituencies created their own funding source and the money is put towards good purposes, but if democracy worked in California, we would not have these targeted pots of money that can't be touched at all. If this were a sane state with sane citizens and sane legislators, those very same legislators would fund programs from one pot. Instead, we have "general fund" money and all the other money that is locked down for other things. I've been in CA for 30 years -- came for a job, sort of trapped in same job (tenured prof in a humanities field at a small private but not rich university -- but have wanted to leave for about 20 of those years. I increasingly hate this state and can't wait to retire out of it back to somewhere, anywhere else just about. Prop 13, Prop 98, etc --- it's why combined with heinous 2/3rds budgeting requirement this state is totally screwed. My God, in the currect debacle our legislature & governor couldn't even bear to suggest bringing back the car tax -- which, honestly wasn't that huge a burden. I'll pay more than that in extra sales tax this year. Only good thing here is that Schwarzenegger is toast for any further office.

Stupid?

Kevin, I think you owe us a bit more of an explanation of why you disapprove of 1F. I'm relatively intelligent and don't see the stupidity.

It ties the hands of those

It ties the hands of those doing the hiring to not hire people at prevailing wages. For the most part, deflation will make sure there's few enough pay raises. But there's no reason we should vote to penalize the few who are taking on greater responsibility or do something that deserve rewards. That would just penalize those who are working through this budget crisis. For an example of performance in hard timed: my spouse just finished a project at her work that had been languishing for years, that all that took it on had either quit or been overwhelmed. She's taking on new responsibilities and defeated a goblin that would hurt later... Should she be 'rewarded' with no pay raise for this work? That's what 1F says.

Uhh... am I reading it wrong

Uhh... am I reading it wrong or have you not read it... or is your wife the insurance comissioner or something? 1F is about elected officials and "state officers" It would affect: The legislatures (120 people), The Governor, The Lieutenant Governor, The Attorney General, The Controller, The Insurance Commissioner, The Secretary of State, The Superintendent of Public Instruction, The Treasurer, The Board of Equalization (4 people) What makes it particularly stupid is that the pay for these people is already controlled by a citizens panel that is incredibly unlikely to raise pay during a recession. It is unlikely to do anything. Voting on it and implementing it is a waste of money. It should, therefore, be voted against on the general principle that useless redundant laws are bad.

Sorry: spouse, not

Sorry: spouse, not (necessarily) wife.

I found some potential savings....

http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/immigrationnaturalizatio/a/caillegals.htm "Illegal Immigration Costs California Over Ten Billion Annually State's "cheap labor" costs average household $1,183 a year In hosting America's largest population of illegal immigrants, California bears a huge cost to provide basic human services for this fast growing, low-income segment of its population. A new study from the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) examines the costs of education, health care and incarceration of illegal aliens, and concludes that the costs to Californians is $10.5 billion per year."

Yes, what? Oh, wait, you

tagged as: 
Yes, what? Oh, wait, you mean we should umm... Blahblahblah spend more money to umm... penalize umm... How about we turn them into nice, legal residents of our state so they can pay their own way instead of being locked up here? ...You do know that it costs money to incarcerate and charge and deport them, right?

The meta-lesson here is ...

Be skeptical of goo-goo process reforms in general. Ballot propositions were one of the original Progressive Era reforms nearly a century ago, and look where they have gotten us. For every decent one there are half a dozen pernicious or just plain stupid ones. But since we're stuck with them for now, I'll probably vote YES on A-E and NO on F - for no better (or worse) reason that when we went out to breakfast yesterday morning a wingnut real estate hustler at the next table said he was voting the opposite way.

tough call

This is one of the hardest choices I've seen in a while, mostly because all the choices seem bad. I'll vote against D and E because those programs should not be touched. I'll probably wind up voting against the others just because I can't see that they will help. Clearly Prop 13 did a lot of damage. Some of it by greatly reducing industrial property taxes. Arnold's cutting the car tax was clearly a bonehead move. He cut taxes and borrowed money and look at the mess we've gotten into. It would be nice if someone could write a good summary of the budget and taxes in California. I hear too many snippets of information that don't really help. A nice two page spread in the Chronicle with lots of graphs and tables would be great. For example, lately there has been a lot of talk about how education takes up such a large fraction of the budget. Yet compared to other states California ranks 46th, at about par with Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas. Our High School district is asking parents to make up the difference. We're a wealthy district so I, and most other parents, will pay $600 or more each to preserve some teachers' jobs and keep a seven period schedule. I also hear that California is a high tax state (usually this comes from the pro business crowd). However, if taxes are high and education is the largest part of the budget that doesn't square with us ranking near the bottom in education spending.

"For example, lately there

"For example, lately there has been a lot of talk about how education takes up such a large fraction of the budget." I believe that education is usually around 50% of the budget of a state. It is simply the biggest thing funded at the state level in the US by a large margin.

Consider

"However, if taxes are high and education is the largest part of the budget that doesn't square with us ranking near the bottom in education spending." Consider that California has more Hispanic students in k-12 than any other state -- at least 50%. Before anyone starts calling me a racist, the facts are that parents who do not respect education or value it generally raise children with those same attitudes...no matter what color or ethnicity they are.

A vote against 1B will decimate the University of California.

UC has already suffered $300,000,000 in cuts and will suffer at least $200,000,000 more if 1B fails. This will result in significant student fee increases, probable staff and faculty layoffs, and a general decimation of the University. Disclosure: I am on the research staff at one of the University campuses.

Steve, 1B does not affect

Steve, 1B does not affect the UC system: it only promises to pay the $9bn or so to k-12 and community colleges in CA. In my opinion, PASSAGE of 1B will cause further cuts to UC, because general fund state money will then necessarily go to k-12 and comm college education, and NOT to the UC or Cal State systems. I'd take that into account when you vote today.

Vote yes on all of them.

Vote yes on all of them. What we have is the result of a long and difficult compromise. Failure will only encourage further gridlock. As it is, California reportedly has the worst bond rating in America (but did my source consider Louisiana?) Props: East Bay Express says something very similar: http://www.eastbayexpress.com/news/vote_yes_on_props_1a_to_1f/Content?oi...

Oh yeah. We're in

Oh yeah. We're in recession. The feds should borrow, spend and cut taxes. The states, who have less pull in the bond markets, should borrow more (Prop 1C), spend less (check), raise taxes (did that) and get some help from the Feds. All that has happened. Over the long run, California should clear out some of the Constitutional underbrush with a constitutional convention, as proposed by the Bay Area Council. Economist article: http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13... Bay Area Council proposal: http://www.bayareacouncil.org/takeaction_ccc.php

Agree with Vote Yes on All of Them

Kevin, your analysis is perfectly reasonable, except that you leave out the key facts that these initiatives are the result of: i) a nearly insolvent state; and ii) a political process that allows a smallish minority to prevent the majority from doing anything. We need to fix these things; in the meantime, vote yes to avoid a real disaster.

"It would be nice if someone

"It would be nice if someone could write a good summary of the budget and taxes in California. I hear too many snippets of information that don't really help. A nice two page spread in the Chronicle with lots of graphs and tables would be great." WTF??? Are you a CA voter? The voter info guide from The League of Women Voters (which I assume is mailed to every CA voter) has exactly this info on the first page. Two nice little pie charts, and some numbers and explanations.

Thanks Kevin

Thanks so much for doing this for every California election, especially now that LA Weekly has abandoned doing their endorsements, which were thorough and informative. Hope you can keep doing it.

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