Iran's Rural Voters Revisited

| Thu Jun. 18, 2009 7:22 AM PDT

Babak Rahimi, who left Iran in 1980s but visits frequently, is now a professor of Iranian and Islamic studies at UC San Diego.  Today, he echoes Eric Hooglund's skepticism that rural Iranians voted monolithically for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:

During the first couple of weeks after I arrived, I sensed little public interest in the election. But in the weeks before the election, the country underwent a dramatic change of attitude. I watched passionate supporters of Mousavi dance, sing and chant anti-government slogans on the streets of Tehran, despite a ban on most of these activities under Islamic law. From the southern port city of Bushehr to the northern towns of Mazandaran province, an astonishing sense of enthusiasm spread throughout the country. "I have never voted before, but I will vote this time," a resident of Bushehr told me, expressing a sentiment I heard again and again.

One major claim of those in power is that although there is some dissent in the cities, the countryside voted solidly for Ahmadinejad, which accounts for his win. But in my preelection fieldwork in a number of southern provinces, I observed major tensions between provincial officials — especially the local imams — and the Ahmadinejad administration in Tehran. I saw far lower levels of support for the president than I had expected. In fact, I heard some of the most ferocious objections to the administration in the rural regions, where the dwindling economy is hitting the local populations hard. As one young Bushehr shopkeeper put it: "That idiot thinks he can buy our votes. He does not care for us."

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Continued From Above

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Comments

Nate Silver

Over at Fivethirtyeight Nate Silver posted some info and charts comparing the 2005 vote to this recent one. He also found that Ahmadinejad's support back then was in the cities, not the rural areas. Although he doesn't draw conclusions, he makes a pretty good argument at the end of why, if the election was bogus, they made the claim about A's rural support: they're more trusting of the government. Here's the link if interested:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/ahmadinejads-rural-votes.html

One man's opinion is a high

One man's opinion is a high standard of proof, especially if he is an ex-pat dissident.

Did we learn anything from Achmed Chalabi and his "expertise"??

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