Adjusted for Inflation
In the Washington Post today, David Brown says that as treatment for heart attacks has gotten better, it's also gotten more expensive:
Over the same period, the charges for treating a heart attack marched steadily upward, from about $5,700 in 1977 to $54,400 in 2007 (without adjusting for inflation).
I continue not to understand why anyone would write this. Why not this instead?
Over the same period, adjusted for inflation, the charges for treating a heart attack marched steadily upward, from about $20,000 in 1977 to $54,400 in 2007.
Technically, Brown's wording is correct. But it's not helpful, since most people don't have even a vague notion of how much cumulative inflation there's been since 1977. The revised wording, however, is helpful: it gives people a correct impression of how much more we spend treating heart attacks these days. Namely, two to three times as much as 30 years ago.
This wasn't just a slip of the keyboard. Brown and his editor obviously made a deliberate decision to use nominal figures even though this doesn't give the average reader a very good idea of how much costs have actually risen. I'd sure like to hear their explanation for why they made this decision.
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Comments
I think it's because there's
I think it's because there's a message in the article:
Instead, the fight against heart disease has been slow and incremental. It's also been extremely expensive and wildly successful.
Two or three times more expensive doesn't sound "extreme" enough, especially since the following paragraph mentions that the risk of dying in the days after a heart attack drops from about 1 in 4 to about 1 in 16. And given the perception that the average reader has no real interest in the numbers...
Uh, it's more dramatic that
Uh, it's more dramatic that way. People assume some inflation but not as much as in reality. So the point is to outrage people about ridiculous costs. Frankly I feel the same way about housing. I don't care where you live, your tiny California house is not worth 200,000 to me ever.
They aren't dishonest, they
They aren't dishonest, they just aren't very bright. It's possible that the bogus numbers were fed to them by an AEI/Heritage intellectual prostitute, but it's not at all necessary that they were so prompted.
Obviously saying that health
Obviously saying that health care costs have skyrocketed ten times what they once were is more alarming than to say they've tripled. Also not mentioned was the survival rates between then and now. Does all that extra cost result in more people staying alive. I suspect so. However for the Wapo to admit that medicine has gotten better would be to undermine its goal of undermining a Democratic president.
I agree with KTH. They
I agree with KTH. They probably got these numbers from a conservative think tank's press release. They don't know how to adjust them for inflation and furthermore don't want to risk the consequences of botching the adjustment.
Conservative? Hahaha
Are you serious? If all evil conservatives don't want to pass a health care bill because they want to hoard all the money for themselves, why would they make the costs sound more exorbitant? If he got the numbers from anywhere (ie he's not being disingenuous himself), it was almost certainly from a left-leaning source.
Kudos for bringing stuff like this up though Kevin.
Was this supposed to be a difficult question?
why would they make the costs sound more exorbitant?
Because it's an excuse to do nothing about reform. "See, costs have gone up, but only because we have such great treatments now. Do you want to kill all those people who have heart attacks with your 'reform'?"
Use Teh Google
"They don't know how to adjust them for inflation."
I certainly hope that's not true. With a Google search, they could have inflation adjusted numbers inside of 30 seconds. They can't possibly be that clueless, can they?
Yea, I never understood why
Yea, I never understood why newspaper style guides just didn't dictate that everything be given in real dollars. Putting it one way one time and another way the next just obfuscates needlessly. If a writer really wants to use non-inflation adjusted dollars, then they can put both.
hiding inflation
Great info, Kevin.
I think that there's a huge lack of awareness about how much inflation actually eats into the currency. It's not trivial. And, as Kevin points out, it skews conversations about prices, costs, salaries and budgets.
Frankly, I think the lack of inflation info is related to the lack of currency exchange info. Keeping the bubble mentality going to ensure there's never an easy reference point to better understand what is at risk (less buying power, flat income levels, higher costs, etc...).
Grr Kevin, this is where you
Grr Kevin, this is where you have almost always been so annoying.
It would be one thing for me to ask your question of a friend.
But goddamit, you have a Mother Jones email address and a Mother Jones phone number and are backed up by Mother Jones. Why the fuck aren't you asking these two dipshits your question directly?
Cardiologists
It could be that they just like cardiologists and want to show the kids considering medical school where the money is. Hospitals love cardiologists and they go after them like free agents in baseball. The hospital can't enter into tying arrangements, where they pay the doctors a bunch of money and then expect them to admit most of their patients to that hospital.
It's a very lucrative arrangement for both parties. The doctors get free agent payment structures and the hospital gets their admissions. We get the bill. Seems fair.
Of course, the WaPo leaves out all invidious comparisons like why it is that the US spends twice what other countries with "universal care" spend. Where is all that money going?
The Washington Post has gone
The Washington Post has gone up in price since 1977, but has it gotten any better?
the charges for treating a
the charges for treating a heart attack
That doesn't say anything about the cost! For all anyone knows the actual cost of treating a heart attack may have gone done, it is just that health care providers are charging more to cover greater profits.
Sheer laziness. What else
Sheer laziness. What else could it be? The data for that 3rd grade arithmatic is available in seconds.
I vote stupidity. Even
I vote stupidity. Even reporters for the Post don't automatically realize the effects of inflation -- that over 30 years a nominal 10x increase is, in real terms, only a 3x increase. Why the paper doesn't make them figure this out, however, is beyond me. And yes, why don't you just e-mail the guy and ask?
It's an appalling article.
It's an appalling article. Notice the part on stents. Along with all the "we're spending more and living longer" stuff, he talks about stents. Which cost a lot more. And don't seem to work. But that doesn't fit with his "higher costs are simply because healthcare works!" thesis, so he just ignores the data.
Not to mention he fails to cover the fact that tons of patients in hospitals get the pretty ineffective $3k stent while failing to get the incredibly effective 30 cent aspirin. And the fact that decreasing smoking and lifestyle improvements, which are FREE, are responsible for half the decline...ah, that's mentioned in passing. Oh, and health disparities increasing in that time doesn't get mentioned (ie, women & minorities have seen their heart attack outcomes improve far less than white guys...so, what does that say?), and the fact that healthcare systems are being forced to very expensively deal with problems that a stronger safety net would help handle far more cheaply (eg: better enforcement of housing laws on landlords=less vermin=fewer asthma attacks.)
And the dead wrong observations. Like he says uninsurance isn't a big deal, but then goes on to say that delay in getting to the hospital is a big deal. Uh, you think maybe that's got something to do with people--insured and uninsured--freaking out about ER cost? Or are we pretending that insured people still believe that their ER visit will be covered if it turns out to be indigestion? Kind of a strong quality case for healthcare reform.
So, yes, it's awesome that we're--inflation adjusted--spending about twice as much on heart attacks and dying only a quarter as often. It is GOOD for us to spend more money on things that extend and improve our lives. Hey, if the green pill costs 3x and much and works twice as well, we SHOULD spend the money on it!
But that doesn't mean all the money we're spending is automatically being spent well. If we did less stenting and more aspirin, we'd have BETTER survival at much, much lower cost. But that's not mentioned in this article.
The relevant question in healthcare is not how can we make our system spend more on expensive things that work. We are very good at that (and it is a good thing). The relevant question is how can we spend less on expensive things that don't work, spend more upfront so we have less occasion to need the expensive things that work, and how can we spend more on inexpensive things that DO work.
This article does NOTHING to advance that debate. It sets it back. Endlessly frustrating.
Maybe Worth the Increase
Isn't it true that treatments for heart attack patients have improved dramatically since 1977? The medical advances in those 30 years are probably worth the price hike since you have a much better chance of surviving one now.
Oh great!
Terrific -- all this tells me is that given my income (and adjusting for inflation) and considering the 20% co-pay, I couldn't have afforded to have a heart attack in 1977 and I sure as hell couldn't afford to have one now.
Laziness
My vote is for laziness/hurriedness. It's the simplest explanation. I think a lot of people assume that professionals in relatively high-profile fields like journalism are consistently hard-working and meticulous and diligent. While they're that way most of the time, they have kids who need to be picked up from daycare and lunches with important clients or sources or whatever they absolutely must not be late for, kinda like everyone else.
The lack of respect for numeracy probably also plays a role, in that they choose to be lazy when it comes to math as opposed to other things because they don't really understand it fully and they expect, correctly, that most of their readers will understand it even less well, so it doesn't really matter too much how they treat quantities.
You make no mention of the
You make no mention of the tangled web of tribal loyalties. Nothing is that simple in Afghanistan. What crops? What infrastructure? It sounds like you are tearing a page out of the Special Operations Unconventional Warfare Manual which they have been practicing all over the world since 1952. Nothing new to that approach.
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