Positive Feedback in the Amazon
| Wed Jul. 8, 2009 9:31 PM PDT
One of the most alarming aspects of climate change is the existence of positive feedback loops. For example, as polar ice melts, less sunlight is reflected back into space, thus heating up the ocean and causing more ice to melt. Rinse and repeat. Another one: warming causes the permafrost in the Siberian tundra to melt, releasing CO2 into the atmosphere, thus warming the earth and causing yet more tundra to melt.
Here's still another, from the latest issue of the Washington Monthly. Oliver Phillips, a professor of geography at the University of Leeds, has studied a 2005 drought in the Amazon rainforest and come to a frightening conclusion:
In normal years the Amazon alone absorbs three billion tons of carbon....But during the 2005 drought, this process was reversed, and the Amazon gave off two billion tons of carbon instead, creating an additional five billion tons of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere. That’s more than the total annual emissions of Europe and Japan combined.
....Significantly, Phillips [] found that the 2005 drought was not the result of El Niño, the cause of previous smaller episodes, but of a regional rise in sea temperatures — one of the expected early signs of global warming. Taken together, these findings suggest that climate change could trigger the worst kind of vicious cycle, with climbing temperatures causing the rainforests to dry out and give off massive quantities of greenhouse gases, which in turn causes the planet to warm more rapidly — a dynamic with harrowing implications.
Read the whole thing for more. The Monthly's entire special package on tropical deforestation is here.
Continues Below
Continued From Above
Comments
"One of the most alarming
Submitted by Anonymous34 (not verified) on Wed Jul. 8, 2009 10:37 PM PDT.
"One of the most alarming aspects of climate change is the existence of positive feedback loops."
And one of the most reassuring aspects is the presence of negative feedback loops.
Mysteriously, Kevin doesn't tell us of those.
Don't bitch, post the damn links!
Submitted by MobiusKlein (not verified) on Wed Jul. 8, 2009 10:48 PM PDT.
If you want to hilight the negative feedback loops, please go ahead.
.
.
.
If you cared about discussing, you would do so.
Since it is far more likely
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 12:22 AM PDT.
Since it is far more likely that we will encounter ever increasing sea temperatures, I think it's time to demand that we bulldoze and pave over the Amazon, fix it's carbon and render it safe.
Well, of course. The main
Submitted by B on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 12:28 PM PDT.
Well, of course. The main question is whether we use cement or asphalt. For every kilogram of cement we put a kilo of CO2 in the air. However, asphalt has a superior low albedo and better heat island effect. Additionally, much of the asphalt will eventually oxidize to CO2 (eliminating many of cements perceived advantages) and intermediate oxidation products are water soluble, toxic, and difficult to detect analytically due to structural complexity. I vote for asphalt. Or maybe asphalt on top of cement.
This was posted on DKos last
Submitted by MNPundit (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 12:56 AM PDT.
This was posted on DKos last year.
force feedback loop
Submitted by hidflect on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 3:58 AM PDT.
When the ice melts in the Arctic enough to expose just one tiny black piece of the volcanic rock underneath the melting effect goes into overdrive with a crater meters wide in just a few days. This may be one of the causes for the ice melting 6x faster than previously thought. The question is; why didn't the scientists factor in this and other phenomena when they made their original predictions?
Re: force feedback loop
Submitted by NomadUK (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 4:05 AM PDT.
Maybe because they were distracted by having to respond to utter fuckwits like Anonymous34, above, and other assorted Republican, Conservative, and Libertarian shitheads.
They did. It's the "climate
Submitted by B on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 4:22 AM PDT.
They did. It's the "climate reports" that leave this stuff out and focus on the direct effects of CO2 in the very short term. Once you have more than 10 mega-ego authors (many of which are old National Academy farts who found their fame back when plate tectonics was controversial) it's pretty much impossible to avoid a 1 year contrarian pissing war if you try to include anything beyond incontrovertible research from a few decades previous.
Damned Units
Submitted by NomadUK (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 4:21 AM PDT.
FYI, Paul Brown's article, written as it is by a UK resident who is constantly bombarded by an insane combination of outdated Imperial and modern metric units, confuses Fahrenheit and Celsius in the following paragraph:
[N]ew research presented in March [...] says that as much as 85 percent of the Amazon forests will be lost if the temperature in the region increases by just 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit. To keep from hitting that mark, we will have to curb global carbon emissions by at least 80 percent. At the same meeting [...] a researcher from Britain’s Met Office [...] showed that a temperature increase of 2.2 degrees above current levels would trigger a 20 to 40 percent Amazon die-off within 100 years. A rise of 5.4 degrees would kill 75 percent of the trees. "The forest as we know it would effectively be gone," she says.
That 7.2°F is 4°C. The other temperatures cited are in Celsius. That places the 75 - 85% die-off within the 2.2-5.4°C range, rather than outside it.
The 2004 Hadley Centre paper cited by Brown also says
The most likely global average temperature rise for a doubling of the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide is predicted to be 3.5 °C, with a 90% probability that the warming will be between 2.4 °C and 5.4 °C
So, basically, we're probably fucked. And the recent bullshit from the Obama Adminstration won't be helping any, either.
Carbon dioxide hell
Submitted by steve duncan on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 4:40 AM PDT.
Man won't abstain from ravaging the planet. 100 years from now a vistor from some other galaxy would find a hot, dusty planet populated by a few hundred million people waging wars over water, arable land, raw materials and sources of energy. Go ahead, have a few kids. Encourage them to do the same down the road. You'll be dead by then, WTF do you care of the world you're helping to re-populate?
Proof that warming not man-made?
Submitted by EB (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 5:42 AM PDT.
So natural climate variability(draught) causes CO2 release larger than Europe's and Japan's? Seems like a very powerful argument against the man-made climate change theory. Thanks for the post.
Feedback Loops
Submitted by nepeta on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 9:34 AM PDT.
Yes, these positive feedback loops taken together are what the media called the 'tipping point' a few years back. I don't see that terminology used as often these days. I like it better because it implies that all the natural processes set in motion by anthropogenic warming are unstoppable once enough of them get going. I think that is very likely the case, barring some other natural catastrophe such as a meteor strike or a nuclear winter scenario.
Better Ditto-Heads, please
Submitted by SecularAnimist (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 6:33 AM PDT.
Dumbass Ditto-Head EB wrote: "So natural climate variability (draught) [sic] causes CO2 release larger than Europe's and Japan's? Seems like a very powerful argument against the man-made climate change theory."
How very, very clever of you to ignore the fact -- clearly stated in the article -- that the Amazon drought, like the thawing Siberian permafrost and the changing Arctic albedo, are NOT the result of "natural climate variability", but are caused by anthropogenic global warming.
That's why they are called "feedbacks".
It just goes to prove the old aphorism that Ditto-Head Denialists may be dishonest, but they're stupid.
And yet, global temperatures
Submitted by MacGruber on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 6:40 AM PDT.
And yet, global temperatures decline. Arctic ice is not melting at an alarming rate. Antarctic ice is increasing.
Don't let facts get in the way of Brown's pseudo-science.
Why should anyone trust Brown's work when, as a poster above noted, he can't get his facts straight. How did this pass the fact-checkers at Science? Is it that they really didn't care about the details? You bet. Why?
Global warming is now a big business and religion mixed into one. Mindless AGW zealots treat it as a religious tenet, not up for debate. Big businesses, like GE, are looking to cash in on "green energy" by producing wind turbines that carve up the local bird population at an alarming rate.
Speaking of wind power, T. Boone Pickens scrapped his wind farm. Didn't work as he thought. Now he has billions of dollars worth of turbines collecting dust. What a waste of money and resources. If only Pickens had invested in collecting natural gas, we'd all be better off than before.
Liberal Pollyanas have been warning about the end of the world for decades. Nuclear war. Famine. Overpopulation. Pollution. And yet, the world keeps on chugging. It must infuriate the everyday liberal that A) a majority of the world pays him no attention and B) an ever increasing proportion of the world's population thrives.
Liberal pollyannas?
Submitted by thersites on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 7:23 AM PDT.
You are confused. Go look up "pollyanna" and come back.
late as usual
Submitted by thersites on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 6:41 AM PDT.
I was scrolling down through the comments, and when I got to the bottom I was going to remark that someone's going to say that this proves that our CO2 emissions are insignificant.
EB already has done so, but was in such a hurry to spout the standard talking points that he/she didn't read the whole post which included this:
a regional rise in sea temperatures — one of the expected early signs of global warming.
In the future, please read the whole post before reciting your talking points.
think for a sec
Submitted by EB (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 8:53 AM PDT.
Think for a second about this statement:
"a regional rise in sea temperatures — one of the expected early signs of global warming."
and see if you can spot a problem. I'll even give you a hint - look how the words "regional" and "global" are used.
MacGruber lies again and again
Submitted by SecularAnimist (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 7:25 AM PDT.
MacGruber wrote: "And yet, global temperatures decline."
That's a lie, as has been demonstrated to you repeatedly before.
MacGruber wrote: "Arctic ice is not melting at an alarming rate."
That's another lie, as has been demonstrated to you repeatedly before.
MacGruber wrote: "Antarctic ice is increasing."
That's another lie, as has been demonstrated to you repeatedly before.
MacGruber wrote: "... wind turbines that carve up the local bird population at an alarming rate."
Another lie.
MacGruber wrote: "T. Boone Pickens ... has billions of dollars worth of turbines collecting dust."
Pure horseshit.
You are a shameless, deliberate liar repeating statements that you KNOW are lies.
You are like a neo-Nazi Holocaust denier, only worse.
MacGruber wrote: "And yet,
Submitted by Sock Puppet of the Great Satan (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 7:28 AM PDT.
MacGruber wrote: "And yet, global temperatures decline."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20
Submitted by MacGruber on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 8:29 AM PDT.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090707/ap_on_bi_ge/us_pickens_wind_energy
Money quote:
"When I start receiving those turbines, I've got to ... like I said, my garage won't hold them," the legendary Texas oilman said. "They've got to go someplace."
Antarctic ice is increasing:
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/20020820southseaice.html
As is arctic ice:
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/arctic_ice_increasing_rapidly/
Global temperatures are decreasing:
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&Content...
I feel like Galileo going up against the Church. I hope to avoid the death penalty.
You are confused. Go look up "pollyanna" and come back.
No. I meant what I said. Liberals are gleeful when it comes to global warming and will always say the earth is heating up when all evidence points to the contrary. Why? Liberals want to fashion the world in their image.
Maybe I should have said an anti-Pollyanna.
And yes, turbines do kill birds:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2005-01-04-windmills-usat_x.htm
If liberals get their way and large swaths of turbines are scattered across the country, the Audobon Society should just dissolve.
MacGruber: "Antarctic ice is
Submitted by alex (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 9:50 AM PDT.
MacGruber: "Antarctic ice is increasing"
You mean as predicted by the climate models? That's quite right. There is a slight long term increasing trend in Antarctic ice cover, as opposed to the much greater downward trend in Arctic ice cover, as illustrated in the graph in the section "Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Extent" here:
http://nsidc.org/sotc/sea_ice.html
MacGruber: "As is arctic ice"
You mean the small uptick seen between 2007 and 2008, which is no more dramatic or indicative of a long term term than other year-to-year variations, and does not belie the long term trend, as illustrated here:
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20090706_Figure3.png
Warning: the linked graph is meant to clarify rather than obfuscate.
MacGruber: "I hope to avoid the death penalty."
Don't worry, "liberals" generally oppose it. Besides, ridicule is far more effective.
MacGruber: "And yes, turbines do kill birds"
Heavens, no! That must explain why the Audubon Society, in their own words "strongly supports properly-sited wind power as a clean alternative energy source".
Oops, for got to debunk the
Submitted by alex (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 10:01 AM PDT.
Oops, for got to debunk the "global temperatures are decreasing" nonsense that Sen. Inhofe is promoting for obviously non-political reasons.
Once again short term variations that are no greater than historical short term variations are used as evidence of a "trend".
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif
Why shucks, it hasn't been this cold since way back in 2000! (nor has it been this warm at any time from at least 1880 to 1997).
Dumbass Ditto-Head thinks he is Galileo
Submitted by SecularAnimist (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 9:44 AM PDT.
MacGruber wrote: "I feel like Galileo going up against the Church."
You are no "Galileo".
You are just another weak-minded, ignorant Ditto-Head slavishly repeating the bullshit that ExxonMobil pays the phony "conservative" media to spoon-feed you.
Your knowledge of climate science consists entirely of your hatred of "liberals".
I'll do my part in debunking
Submitted by nepeta on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 9:51 AM PDT.
I'll do my part in debunking McGruder's post. Pickens has indeed given up on his huge wind farm in the Texas panhandle, but for technical reasons, not for want of doing it.
"In Texas, the problem lies in getting power from the proposed site in the Panhandle to a distribution system, Pickens said in an interview with The Associated Press in New York. He'd hoped to build his own transmission lines but he said there were technical problems."
So, MacGruber, you're wasting our time with your nonsense. Thanks, though, for providing links that make debunking you so easy.
One cannot discuss science
Submitted by tpx on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 10:27 AM PDT.
One cannot discuss science with creationists.
One cannot discuss science
Submitted by MacGruber on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 10:46 AM PDT.
One cannot discuss science with creationists.
I'm no creationist, sir. But I will counter that one cannot discuss facts with zealots.
Could you at least reply to the charts?
Submitted by daryl_mccullough on Fri Jul. 10, 2009 7:55 AM PDT.
MacGruber,
Did you take a look at the two charts:
on artic sea ice:
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20090706_Figure3.png
on global temperatures:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif
What is your reply? The charts show that you are right, that artic ice has been increasing in the last few years, and that global temperatures have been falling. So that's vindication of what you are saying. However, and this is a pretty big however, the trends you are you talking about look like random fluctuations when considered on a longer time scale. Do you disagree? You think that the trends for the last few years are significant, even though similar ups and downs happen every year or so?
I just want to hear what your response is to those charts. Can you honestly look at those two charts and say that it looks like there are trends for artic ice to increase and for global temperatures to decrease?
Daryl McCullough
Ithaca, NY
MacGruber is a liar and he knows it
Submitted by SecularAnimist (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 11:11 AM PDT.
MacGruber wrote: "But I will counter that one cannot discuss facts with zealots."
One certainly wastes one's time trying to discuss facts with a deliberate, malicious liar like yourself.
CO2 Measurements
Submitted by Mitchel44 (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 11:26 AM PDT.
Could you show me that 5 billion ton spike in the CO2 record?
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/globalview/
Should be there, but must be shy.
Positive Feedback/Amazon
Submitted by Marty (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 2:19 PM PDT.
Whoops...I thought you talking about positive feedback like this:
http://www.amazon.com/Three-Wolf-Moon-Mountain-Shirt/product-reviews/B00...
"Could you show me that 5
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu Jul. 9, 2009 11:48 PM PDT.
"Could you show me that 5 billion ton spike in the CO2 record?"
Try http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html
Measurements at Mauna Loa only date back to 1960, but the trend should be there to see.
First conceived 150 years ago the <a href="http://www.omegawatc
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