The Financialization of America
Matt Yglesias says it's unlikely we can effectively rein in stratospheric compensation levels in the finance industry. The guys who work on Wall Street are just too smart: "You don’t get to be an
important person in the world of finance without being really, really, really good at figuring out ways to pay yourself a lot of money. That’s what the field is all about." Then this:
That said, we compensation reform aside, we actually have a well-established method of taking market distributions of income and trying to transmogrify it into a more just, useful, and welfare-enhancing deployment of social resources — taxes and public services....It strikes me as ultimately unlikely that the political process will be able to micromanage high finance in a way that strikes people as meeting the claims of justice. But the political process very much can collect tax revenues and use that revenue to finance things that we currently “can’t afford” like more widespread provision of health care services, better rail transportation, cleaner streets, more police officers, more and better pre-kindergarten, etc.
There's something to this, and since the share of national income hoovered up by the super-rich is about three times higher today than it was 30 years ago, I don't have a big problem with taxing that income at a higher rate. But there's a limit to how effective that can be. For a whole bunch of reasons, marginal tax rates higher than 50% or so are pretty unlikely, and effective tax rates at that level are probably impossible. After all, those Wall Street guys are pretty good at tax planning, too.
Overall, there's not much question that Wall Street bankers are going to continue to be paid astronomical sums as long as the firms they run are making astronomical profits. And that's the key problem. Tax policy can help — though it's a pretty broad brush — but the fundamental problem is that the finance sector in the U.S. is so damn big. And it's seemingly an unstoppable juggernaut: Wall Street income may have been down last year, but even the biggest economic collapse since World War II hasn't made even a medium term dent. A mere year later, the overall size and profitability of the finance industry is on track to be about the same size as it was during the boom years.
In the light of all this, tax policy can work only on the margins, and putting in place a "pay czar" for Wall Street will do nothing except generate a few juicy headlines here and there. Compensation follows money flows just as surely as the tide follows the orbit of the moon, and the only way to reduce Wall Street compensation is to reduce the size and profitability of Wall Street. Unfortunately, no one wants to talk about that. So instead we get a pay czar.
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Comments
Special industry tax
The events of the past year have shown that the financial industry should probably pay a special tax surcharge in exchange for the unique protections they receive from the Federal govt.
Now that we know that the govt and the Fed are willing to go to extraordinary lengths to protect the industry from failure, and at terms that no other industry would ever receive, it seems only fair financial firms should pay premiums for these special benefits. It would be like paying for insurance. After all, the high level of profits at Goldman and others that we see now would not exist except for the quick action on the part of Feds during the fall and winter.
You could call it a group insurance plan.
Actually, I think Sheila Bair (head of FDIC) or somebody has already suggested something very much like this.
Wrong Paradigm Kevin
"There's something to this, and since the share of national income hoovered up by the super-rich is about three times higher today than it was 30 years ago, I don't have a big problem with taxing that income at a higher rate."
The economy is not a fixed size pie Kevin. The amount of pie the financial folks get has 0 affect on how big your slice is. By paying them more, you're not getting less. They're not "hoovering up" your share of anything. I see that this zero-sum view of the world is what drives most of your thinking, but it's so fundamentally flawed I can't resist pointing it out.
Try harder James2
You used the strawman method by pretending Kevin said something he didn't and attacking it, that's the lazy conservative's approach. So your comment makes no sense. It might work with the yokels who listen to Limbaugh, but not with the classy crowd that reads this blog. Let me help you out:
1. "But raising marginal rates will stifle hard work, risk-taking and innovation. Sure, it might make you feel better to hit the rich, but everyone will suffer." -- A conservative classic, Mitt Romney based a career on it. And it appears plausable.
2. "The wealthy save and invest money, that means more capital investment, which increases the economic well-being of all. Raising marginal rates jeopardizes this." --The thinking-man's conservative. David Brookes would be proud.
See? It's easy!
Actually, it sure does.
Actually, it sure does. Where exactly do you think those profits came from? By depriving the non-financial industry of revenue that would otherwise be used to purchase tangible goods, not to mention provide salaries and jobs. Goldman Sachs has a lot of things, but not a printing press.
Just because the economy is not exactly a zero-sum game, it does not logically follow that said economy is the antithesis of a zero-sum game. In real life, the net effect of you hoovering up all this wealth was that we recently spent $700 BILLION taxpayer dollars to bail out your sorry ass, while non-financial america gets the flipping shaft.
Please note where you factored in your massive subsidies to your detailed map of the US economy. You acquired your wealth through legalized theft, and then you held the whole country hostage to secure it.
Marginal Tax Rates
Your comment that marginal tax rates above 50% are ... really leaves out the entire topic of capital gains taxes. As Warren Buffet is happy to tell you he gets paid $1 a year and the marginal tax rate on that is zilch. And remember that all income of a hedge fund manager (by law - thanks Congress) is capital gains.
Rich people pay capital gains taxes and that is where the discussion of taxes needs to start.
They get away with big
They get away with big compensation because it's a) other peoples money and b) the underlying companies are too damn big.
If you dislike the big compensation break up the bastards and create more competition. If you dislike the big compensation put real teeth in to regulation of a company's compensation committee.
Everytime you say they are too big to break up you are just bending us all over.
Back in the Day
Thirty years ago there was a saying on Wall Street: "Wall Street's only 4 blocks long, but it stretches from coast to coast." What that meant was that if you screwed someone in a deal in the morning, by afternoon everyone on the Street would know about it and you'd have a very hard time ever doing another deal. WS was a hard place on outsiders, but if you screwed someone in the community, your rep was shot and you were toast.
The combination of Reagan's elimination of the top rates and the Maestro's bubble machine changed all that. All you had to do was one big deal, and you kept enough of the $25M, $50M, $100M or whatever to fly off in your Gulfstream to the island you just bought, and everybody else could go fuck themselves.
Result: for the last 15 years there have been legions of 30-something assholes pitching every sort of crap in every misleading way possible. The whole culture has changed. Old-timers hate it because you can't trust anybody's word for anything.
I'm all for raising the cap gains tax and going to 90% on anything over $5Mil/yr.
Speaking of Warren Buffet,
Speaking of Warren Buffet, he favors a progressive consumption tax. It's not a bad idea, and it might someday be politically feasible to have rather highish such rates -- maybe even 100% or more. After all, why shouldn't a plutocrat pay $60 million for a $30 million dollar beach house (especially when it's his ninth residence).
But I have to say I agree with Kevin: the financial sector has to be reigned in. It's not that big a deal to have a sector where people are wildly and inappropriately paid and incentivized if said sector has little ability to take down the rest of the economy.
So, while it is a blunt instrument, I'd say tax policy is our best friend here, too: we ought to be discussing a transaction tax on all financial transactions.
Marginal and effective tax rates
While I almost always agree with Kevin -- great minds think alike and all that -- we have a few differences. Kevin, you've more than once criticized the idea of marginal tax rates going very high (50% in this post, although I can't recall if you'd named this number or another in the past).
For the life of me, I don't know why you think this. Maybe I missed it, but I cannot recall when you've EVER given anything like a coherent, well-argued reason for WHY a high marginal tax rate is a bad thing. In past postings you've cited emotional arguments, something along the lines that "most people" or "most Americans" "think" or "feel" that anything over 50% or 60% or somesuch is unfair.
But you've never proven that, either as a political fact or as an economic argument.
A poster above notes that as long as we treat capital gains differently from earned income, we will have a problem. That is absolutely true. The almost fanatical Republican obsession with cutting the capital gains rate to zero is one of the most plainly corrupt policies of a generally corrupt Party and ideological movement because -- as has been pointed out so many times -- this would effectively move many, many rich people into the ZERO tax bracket.
But I say that it's not only not enough to start taxing capital gains at exactly the same rates as earned income -- fully integrated into the progressive tax structure -- but that we will NEVER rein in the obscene excesses of Wall Street and corporate compensation generally UNLESS and UNTIL we increase marginal tax rates back to where they were under, at least, Kennedy, if not in fact Eisenhower. Fully indexed to inflation this time, yes, but serious taxation of the rich.
There has been very close to a 1:1 relationship between the effective gutting of the progressive tax code under Reagan, and the skyrocketing corporate salaries and out-of-control greed of Wall Street. The reason is not at all hard to understand: today, when one of these bastards makes $20 million (or $200 million), he gets to keep most of it. They may whine about their taxes, but still there remains plenty of incentive to lard more onto their plates if they can. But back in the 1950s, say, it made almost no sense at all to pay a top executive 300 times what an entry-level worker made ... for the simple reason that after the taxman was finished, the executive would hardly have a nickel more than if he'd been paid a more reasonable 15-20 times what his entry level worker made. And so, for two or three generations, that's exactly what most businesses paid. Neither they nor their compensation boards nor their shareholders could see any particularly good reason to shovel cash from the corporate treasury as transfer payments to the federal treasury. Better that the money be split out and paid as dividends to shareholders, most of whom were NOT in such rarified tax brackets.
I personally believe that the near-destruction of the progressive income tax was perhaps the single most vile, damaging act of the Reagan Era. A direct assault on our American democracy -- by massively increasing the power of the super-rich, pushing us closer to a defacto plutocracy than we've been at least since the Gilded Age. And, also, a direct assault on effective capitalism, too, showed clearly by the massive shift in power from shareholders to top corporate executives. Not that the latter ever lacked power, but at least at one time they were to some extent restrained by shareholders, a fact not nearly so obvious today (I keep thinking about Home Depot's CEO almost single handedly locking out ALL of the company's shareholders a couple of years ago. Would anything quite like that have occurred in the mid-1950s with a Fortune 500 company?).
So, Kevin, I urge you to -- please -- give me some evidence, hard evidence, that a high marginal tax rate really IS a bad idea. More than merely saying "It's politically difficult or impossible," or "It doesn't seem fair." The truth is that the PROGRESSIVE income tax -- complete with high marginal tax rates -- was one of the great accomplishments of the Progressive Movement, and its destruction in the 1980s was an enormous defeat and tragedy for those with progressive ideals.
How and why to tax
I think we need to reduce corporate taxation and increase personal taxation at least to the point where the incentive is to keep money in companies and invest and produce more jobs & product. This should also make it plain that paying top execs very high wages is, as has been suggested, a waste of good money.
What rates would be required for this result to occur?
Also, it seems to me that there's a similar problem when a capital gains tax rate similarly allows people to take money out of investments because the tax structure makes it painless.
It was also discussed (on this blog I think) recently that Chapt S corps (where income is declared as personal instead of corporate) also could use some ironing out of kinks in the tax structure.
If we want America's manufacturing and other business to go, then we need to make the tax structure 'push' money towards investing.
Matt Yglesias says it's
Matt Yglesias says it's unlikely we can effectively rein in stratospheric compensation levels in the finance industry. The guys who work on Wall Street are just too smart:...
Or too well connected. They are not very bright or they would not have let themselves get leveraged up at 50:1 levels in some cases. I'm a financial idiot myself, but even I knew long before the present crisis that real estate prices can go down.
This is neither true nor thought out
For a whole bunch of reasons, marginal tax rates higher than 50% or so are pretty unlikely, and effective tax rates at that level are probably impossible. After all, those Wall Street guys are pretty good at tax planning, too.
Oh, please. Look, the United States Government has the last word. And when overseas folks are involved, we have a lot more influence with them than any given bank. We're the motherfucking 800-lb gorilla. We can get effective tax rates anywhere we want them to be. It's just a question of how much money we have to spend to make this be true.
You hand 50 billion over to the IRS, make financial crime DoJ's top priority, and crank the fraud penalties up to max, and use a Democratic Majority in congress to aggressively close loopholes, and you could get tax rates wherever you want them. It's merely a question of political will.
Sunshine legislation
It's a truism that you can't make any serious money on Wall Street in the daylight, because you can't defend a price premium for a product that anyone can copy.
The solution to reining in Wall Street's size and profitability, and thus as you point out to the Street's ridiculous compensation practices, is to mandate much, much more transparency. No "dark pools," full disclosure of OTC contracts, etc.
The regulatory underlying principle is actually quite straightforward, if potentially complex in its application: all transactions should have disclosure requirements that reveals information to non-party players. That way the marketplace as a whole gets collectively smarter with every transaction.
The whole (Hayekian) argument for markets is that they are the most efficient way yet discovered to aggregate dispersed information from people with an incentive to horde it (or at least no incentive or structured way to share this information). Marketplaces which fail to fulfill this function are not working the way they should, and should be regulated to ensure they fulfill this function.
As Polanyi taught us long ago, the government's role in the economy should not be about picking winners or micromanaging the internal decisions of corporations (including compensation), but rather should mainly be about shaping markets to produce socially optimal outcomes. And mandating transparency on Wall Street is a clear case of what the government should be doing.
And along the way, it will largely solve the compensation problem.
the so-called "financial" economy
The government has given a whole class of rich people the "right" to strip the value from the American economy through this thing called the "financial" economy. Yes, the country needs a functioning banking system, but the one we have now obviously isn't. We need to spend less time/$$$ propping up big business and more time/$$$ investing in real (i.e. not financial) jobs that actually make this country work.
In other words, if the financial hotshots fail to put capital toward better use, then we'll do it for them by raising taxes. If they piss and moan, then they are free to take their talents elsewhere and ruin some other country.
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