The Lesson of the Town Halls
| Sun Aug. 30, 2009 10:22 AM PDT
Is there any reason for optimism on healthcare reform? In a weird sort of way there is.
Think about this: It turns out that heathcare reform is so fundamentally popular that the only way Republicans have been able to have any impact at all on the debate is via a campaign of demagoguery so egregious and brazen that Huey Long himself probably would have hesitated a moment or two before jumping in. For the first six months of the year nothing else had made a dent, so finally they had to resort to a full month of silly season frenzy about death panels and secret White House enemies lists and "healthcare racism" and benefits for illegal immigrants. The only thing missing was sharks with laser beams attached to their heads.
It's been a helluva show. But here's the weird fact: despite all this, public support for healthcare reform has declined only modestly. In fact, less than you'd expect even without the August freak show we've just gone through. Generally speaking, people still approve of Obama, still approve of his healthcare plan, still prefer Democrats to Republicans on the issue, and still support giving people the choice of being covered by either a public or a private plan. Fox News and FreedomWorks have managed to spin their audiences into a hysterical lather about fascism and socialism and pulling the plug on grandma, but in the end the shrieking crowds who showed up at the townhalls were tiny in number.
So that's the optimistic view: the Fox/FreedomWorks crowd has created some great political theater, but underneath it all not a lot has changed. If Democrats can just take a deep breath after the trauma of being yelled at all summer, they'll realize that the loons at their townhalls represented about one percent of their constituency; that the public still wants reform and will reward success; that the plans currently on the table are already pretty modest affairs; and then they'll stick together as a caucus and vote for them. And that will be that.
Unfortunately, that's also the reason for pessimism: can Democrats still think straight about all this? When Chuck Grassley announces dolefully that maybe healthcare needs to be rethought now that the people have spoken, he says it like he really means it. And even some Dems fall for it. So success depends on the Democratic caucus seeing through the "heartland uprising" charade and showing some backbone. The odds might not be so great on that.
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Comments
Was that profound?
Submitted by Scrooge McDuck (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 10:36 AM PDT.
Cryptic, Kevin.
Very cryptic.
Take Heart - It IS Possible
Submitted by MickSteers (not verified) on Mon Aug. 31, 2009 7:25 AM PDT.
If you actually want this to succeed, do yourself a favour.
Spend a few minutes and read a few brief PDFs from the Dartmouth Atlas Project. 20 years of analysis of the US health care system conclusively demonstrates why there is absolutely no reason why universal access, quality care, improved outcomes and lower costs cannot be achieved at the same time.
With understanding, comes conviction. There is no legitimate obstacle, other than lack of political will. There really is no shortage of doctors or money. We do not need to sacrifice our own care or access in order to offer universality. Nor do we need to mortgage our future to do so.
The information is digestible, empirical and free of political bias. As a layman, it took me a couple of hours to work through four reports, but doing so eased the tremendous frustration I was feeling about competing, unsupported claims made by both sides. I found it a wonderful tonic to the growing pessimism and capitulation that this silly season of misinformation and political hysteria was designed to induce.
http://www.dartmouthatlas.org/agenda.shtm
I found this link at the brilliant Bill Moyers PBS health care site: http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/08282009/profile.html
Grassley is right!
Submitted by Go, Sestak! (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 10:45 AM PDT.
Democracy ("the people") didn't speak when Obama crushed McCain, or when Dems won overwhelmingly in the House and Senate. Democracy only speaks through the screams of the right-wing haters.
Good Post--Really about right
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 10:52 AM PDT.
Great post, Kevin. I think you've got it about right. That said, the question really is, what is the White House going to do to hold Dems in Congress together and combat the nutballism from the right? Is it going to project weakness in the face of the fear brigade, give in to crazy demands that get them nowhere and no extra votes? Is it going to try and reshape its message to get progressives to go for a lukewarm reform that bakes less than half a loaf? Or, is it going to reinvigorate the debate, stick a few pins in flaccid Senators, and do some heavy lifting? I guess we'll see.
Corporatism is tough to beat.
Submitted by jrw on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 1:43 PM PDT.
Kevin, just because there is a "D" next to a senators name, it doesn't mean he or she is in favor of meaningful health care reform. If you just add up the "D"s, sure there's reason to be optimistic. But given the industry ownership of the majority of Democratic senators, how can you think they'll vote against the interests of the insurance and pharmaceutical industries? I wish I could share your optimism, but given the lack of any pressure from the White House, where corporatism rules, I don't see the Senate as much but the graveyard of meaningful reform. The fact that the public supports something seems to have little to do with what legislation is enacted. It would be swell to think so, and ponies would be nice, too, but I'm pessimistic.
Excellent post.
Submitted by wovenstrap on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 11:30 AM PDT.
The reality is, the outlook is very rosy for the Dems, if (as Kevin says) they can just keep their cool. The following scenario is quite likely. The Dems will pass a bill, and it'll be a pretty good bill. Come Election Day 2010, the Dems will have delivered a popular health care package, Gramma will not have been put to death, the taxes of plutocrats and only plutocrats will go up, and the Republicans will have fought against every step of this. They'll have nothing to run on.
The Republicans' only hope was to kill the boss (video game reference) and we don't know yet that they won't. But I think they just don't have the bullets or power-ups.
Or the Democrats will pass
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 2:14 PM PDT.
Or the Democrats will pass healthcare through Reconciliation and the Blue Dogs will go home and be defeated in the next election. Care to roll the dice on a bill that no one knows what is in?
Uh, OK.
Submitted by wovenstrap on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 3:47 PM PDT.
I don't know exactly what's going to happen. I do know that the Dems have the more charismatic leader, the better set of issues, better polling numbers, and a position that is likely to improve structurally over time. In other words, the GOP peaked too soon. Now they've been exposed as the Party of No, they foolishly rejected a plum co-op compromise, and now the Democrats can do what they want and the GOP has no credibility in opposition. I don't know what 2010 holds because it's an election that ought to benefit the GOP anyway (new Dem incumbent, poor economy). But on the merits, I think the GOP has played the health care issue very badly, and the Dems will find themselves in a decent position, despite themselves.
If it passes, it will be popular.
Submitted by Scrooge McDuck (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 5:02 PM PDT.
This is a bill that will make big differences in peoples' lives.
I grant you that it is totally compromisied and non-ideal. But the reasons that the Republicans are fighting it so hard (and so dirty) is because it will rebound to the Democrats' good effect.
Why are the Republicans in the wilderness? It is certainly NOT because of the Medicare prescription drug benefit, notwithstanding the fact that it is equally "socialist," almost as expensive, and a million times more poorly written than the health care bills that are converging on Capitol Hill.
In fact, because of the panoply of lies told about the bill, and about Obama (that Marxist revolutionary!), peoples' experience of having transportable, secure, non-revocable health insurance will be surprisingly positive. And playing back tape of these town hall meetings during the run up to the 2010 congressional elections will remind all but the hard-core 18% nutball contingent who the grown-ups really are.
Sharks
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 11:31 AM PDT.
K,
Thanks. The depths of diabolical wickedness plumbed by Obama and the Democrat party were hidden from me until you revealed their plan to set Muslim sharks with laser beams on real American Republicans in the Heartland. Absence of a shoreline will provide no protection from these fiends.
Agreed the utter absurdity of the Republican case against reform ought to embolden Democrats by providing easy pickings, but the habit of preemptive surrender is so deeply engrained now that I'm not holding my breath.
Au Contraire Anonymous
Submitted by Anonymoose (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 11:45 AM PDT.
Getting sharks to convert to Islam or any religion is not as easy as Republicans would have us believe. Silly season is almost over. It's time for the adults HR 3200.
Kev, you're dreaming
Submitted by jimmy123 (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 12:11 PM PDT.
The townhalls served their purpose: every Blue Dog now has the opportunity to say, "Gee I went home and my constituents were screaming and howling about how Obamacare sucks; I MUST regard the will of the people" (ie, like Grassley).
And no one's going to say "Um, your constituents poll at 75% wanting the bill."
Just like w/ Clinton's impeachment, just like w/ abortion, just like w/ minimum wage, Iraq, etc, etc.
health care
Submitted by john sherman (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 12:18 PM PDT.
I live in Minnesota just across the Red River from Fargo, and yesterday the North Dakota labor council and other groups held a rally for health care reform, and the local Limbaa wannabe tried to rally a counter protest. The local paper, the Fargo Forum which was more accurately named when it was the Daily Republican, estimated our number at 800 and theirs as 100.
Listening to the tea-baggers scream at us, I suddenly wonder why, if these people hate government so much, they don't move to Somalia where they wouldn't be bothered by a government.
Good on you.
Submitted by jrw on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 1:51 PM PDT.
Good on you for turning out for health care reform. Somalia is the libertarian's paradise, and the logical outcome of that infantile philosophy; no rules and plenty of guns.
Good point. And according to
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 2:10 PM PDT.
Good point. And according to Drum they have better healthcare than the US and at half the cost. Of course Somalia has broken down into anarchy but I wouldn't expect you to know the difference. That would have require an education as opposed to an opinion.
I love your avatar, it fits you well.
just goes on to prove for
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 12:25 PM PDT.
just goes on to prove for the n'th time that the repubs like to defeat the opponents no matter what, and the liberals are more than happy with half baked symbolic victories.
We're the ones you need to be listening to
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 12:35 PM PDT.
I heard of an agency oversight board. One day when a man making a presentation to the board kept turning around to address his remarks to the much larger group of staff and visitors a member of the board said, "Turn around. We're the ones you need to be talking to." I think about that when I hear elected officials reject the will of the majority to follow the sheep on cable news.
When the health care reform fight settles down, on to public financing, an even more difficult battle. But at least with that, they would listen to us.
Kevin said: "people still
Submitted by JS (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 2:23 PM PDT.
Kevin said: "people still ... support giving people the choice of being covered by either a public or a private plan".
What data is this based on?
From what I have been able to see, NBC polls found overwhelming early support for a public option (76% for, 20% against) in June 2009, but just two months later, in August, NBC found a majority opposing it (43% for, 47% against).
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/17/obama-boost-new-poll-show_n_217...
and
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/08/18/2033674.aspx
Another poll found that the public mostly does not know what the public option is and many believe it would mean takeover of all health care delivery by the government.
I would like to share Kevin's optimism, but it seems that the other side has been quite successful in their misinformation campaign.
I also have had a tough time finding Democratic websites (run by government or others) that outline the health plan point by point. There are several that address the "myths" of the opponents, but those state what's wrong with the criticism. You can read the bill itself, but you will need several months and a few lawyers to help. The opposition's message, though misleading and sinister, is crisp and easy to digest. There is no easy-to-digest description of the proposed plan that can be easily found as far as I can see, and I believe that een many of its supporters (including commenters here) are not familiar with all its main points (who will be covered, how, who will pay, how, etc.).
Excellent points. Of course
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 2:51 PM PDT.
Excellent points. Of course not having any clue about what they are talking about has not stopped most of the commenters from expressing their ill-informed opinions. But I suspect that like Kevin, most just want free healthcare- actually not free, they just want someone else to pay for it-at any cost without regard to the consequences.
I see nothing wrong with a
Submitted by JS (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 3:22 PM PDT.
I see nothing wrong with a system in which health care is officially declared to be one of the rights of all people, and is freely available and paid for via taxes. (Like public education, police, defense, etc.). Taxes would go up, but the mess of employer-provided health plans would go away. Keep the doctor co-pays to avoid abuse. And keep private hospitals and health providers. I think that, if this were to be well presented to the people, they would vote for it.
Unfortunately, neither side
Submitted by Signe (not verified) on Mon Aug. 31, 2009 1:32 PM PDT.
Unfortunately, neither side is well informed about the plans on the table in Congress. If they were, they would all be protesting at town halls (but for different reasons).
Congress is in a difficult position with the country about equally split on the issue of health insurance reform (health care reform is not on the table) and how to implement it.
polls & wording
Submitted by Steve J. on Mon Aug. 31, 2009 3:07 AM PDT.
JS - The later NBC poll changed the wording of the question. A SurveyUSA poll which had the same wording as the earlier NBC poll found that 77% support a public option.
Steve -- Yes, I read about
Submitted by JS (not verified) on Mon Aug. 31, 2009 9:17 AM PDT.
Steve -- Yes, I read about this at TPM after I posted. The TPM article says:
The proper conclusion to draw? Perhaps that Americans like the word choice more than they like the government creating things. Or perhaps that they don't follow policy very closely. After all, despite broad support for the choice of a public option in the new SurveyUSA poll, 42 percent said they thought a public option would help ensure that all Americans receive coverage while 46 percent thought it was more likely that the public option would limit patients' access to doctors.
A fair conclusion may be that not much changed from June to August, but many people are confused and usure about it.
It's a messy situation which can be used by either side to claim it is right. I suspect that the minority opposition is much more energetic than the evident majority support, and makes more trouble for senators and congressmen everywhere. Otherwise, why are so many Democrats talking about compromise? 77% should make it a slam dunk.
I wonder where. . .
Submitted by Steve (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 2:52 PM PDT.
. . . those people carrying the "read the bill" signs were when the USA PATRIOT act was rammed through Congress.
"a campaign of demagoguery
Submitted by beowulf (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 2:55 PM PDT.
"a campaign of demagoguery so egregious and brazen that Huey Long himself probably would have hesitated a moment or two before jumping in."
I'm pretty sure the Kingfish would be on the other side.
http://www.hueylong.com/programs/share-our-wealth.php
The Voice of the People
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 2:56 PM PDT.
When Grassley (or Conrad, or Baucus) say "the people have spoken" the people they are talking about are insurance company people who write checks.
. . . Democrats seeme to not
Submitted by eightnine2718281828mu5 (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 4:30 PM PDT.
.
.
.
Democrats seeme to not understand that this is not a policy discussion; this is a political campaign, and the Republicans are using their standard playbook:
fear
exaggeration
ad hominem attacks
lies
Pretty basic stuff; thoughtful policy discussions hold no interest for Republicans.
And of course the news entertainment industry prefers to cover events using the same lens as Republican operatives. Policy discussions are boring and they lose viewers if they try to engage at that level.
So they focus on the Republican hysteria angle 90% of the time and devote 10% to the policy angle, mainly as a way to defend themselves that they don't cover policy. It's the 'Howie Kurtz' standard; if you cover enough policy to get in front of Howie Kurtz and say with a straight face "That's unfair, we've devoted a number of segments to the policy aspect of this issue."
But the fact that 90% of the time it's coverage of histrionics is A-OK with the Kurtz's of the world.
.
.
.
.
townhalls are obsolete.
Submitted by Omega Centauri (not verified) on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 5:45 PM PDT.
At least the current prescription, whereby anyone who shows up can attend is unworkable. It should be abundantly clear that any special interest group so disposed can ship in enough people to pack such meetings. The solution should be obvious, invitaton only, with the invitations sent out at random. Then you could in principle get a respresentative set of citizens, rather then rent-a-protestors.
I think we start with a
Submitted by Luther on Sun Aug. 30, 2009 9:42 PM PDT.
I think we start with a semantics problem. The parties have taken to using Doublespeak names for programs, like the Patriot Act (should be called "Enhanced Control of Citizens and Diminished Freedom Act), Immigration Reform (i.e., Codifying Corruption and Non-Feasance in Immigration Act), and Healthcare Reform (i.e., the Gargantuan Deficit and Give Old White People's Medicare to Minorities and Illegal Aliens Bill).
It goes without saying that the people overwhelmingly support patriotism, immigration reform (getting rid of illegal aliens), and affordable healthcare.
The odds might not be so great on that.
Submitted by bob h (not verified) on Mon Aug. 31, 2009 3:12 AM PDT.
The problem for the Democratic Party is that if they do not show spine on this, a large fraction of the base is going to give up on them.
past time for dems to step up
Submitted by elisabeth on Mon Aug. 31, 2009 6:27 AM PDT.
i would hope that all of those pols who were all over the place last week about how much they will miss TK will now step up and actually speak for health care -- it's not enough to keep denying the lies, that just keeps the conversations dominated by the republican no-sayers. Instead, every day there should be (and forgive me, perhaps I'm not watching enough tv, but I'm not hearning it) multiple voices patiently repeating over and over again, "we know that the present system can't be maintained, that you will have higher premiums and less coverage unless we pass a bill that does
x, y, z, etc." And since the votes of older voters still seem very important, there need to be a lot more reiteration of "we're going to fix the medicare drug bill, we're going to subsidize more doctors who will focus on gerentology etc etc"
elisabeth
--- The problem for the
Submitted by eightnine2718281828mu5 (not verified) on Mon Aug. 31, 2009 6:39 AM PDT.
---
The problem for the Democratic Party is that if they do not show spine on this, a large fraction of the base is going to give up on them.
---
Bingo. If the Democrats are limited to being the bucket and mop crew that cleans up Republican messes they might as well get used to the idea of being in the minority.
Kevin, I think you have it
Submitted by Lee A. Arnold (not verified) on Mon Aug. 31, 2009 12:57 PM PDT.
Kevin, I think you have it right. The anti-reformers are protesting a little too much. If they had the numbers on their side, they wouldn't be wasting so much energy. The polls blipped one way and will blip back again. The entire opposition seems to be composed of the 50,000 employees the insurance industry sent out to the townhalls (according to the Wall Street Journal,) plus the reliable far-right nutcases, plus a few addle-pated old timers. If Congress passes a decent bill, everybody on earth will have ten months or more to find out what is in it and what the benefits are, in time for the next election. Ten months means over three complete emotional turnarounds for the electorate. So they'll be zooming off on another completely differnt issue. There is no downside for the Democrats on this, except maybe for a few extremely nutty districts.
LOSING the ENVAGELICS
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon Aug. 31, 2009 5:16 PM PDT.
What I noticed lately is the publicans are having there town halls in churchs.Whats that tell you it says the republicans are losing the evangelics according to the polls.The Evangelics are going to start a third party,because of LYING they been doing lately and the sexual immorality the republicans have been up to evil things.And they know it and are scared of losing the Evangelic vote having there townhalls in churchs is disgusting thats a house of Prayer ,worship."NOT" a den for vipers to prey on elderly people.SHAME ON THEM for using the house of prayer to spread there "LIES"
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Health Care Reform
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed Sep. 2, 2009 11:08 AM PDT.
Drum is right. We do all want healthcare reform. We just do not want a public option or any change without tort reform which accounts for 33% to 40% of the cost of the current health system . Obama is a hypocrite. He says he wants to cut health care cost but intends to leave the system at the mercy of lawyers. Naturally the congress and senate are not going to do tort reform since over half of our representatives are lawyers. All he has to do to get healthcare reform is include tort reform "losers pay" and do away with the public option. Obama needs to stop speaking with a forked tongue.
Half A Health Care Bill
Submitted by Mike Burns on Thu Sep. 3, 2009 7:03 AM PDT.
The Democrats need to make sure that they include the public option or they will have passed only half a health care bill. Imagine what half a Social Security bill would have looked like or half a voting rights bill or half a civil rights bill. Public justice and moral imperatives are never served by half measures.
Mike Burns
http://www.disorderlyreport.com/
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