Wall Street's Latest Trick
As you probably know by now (you have been paying attention, haven't you?), banks are required to retain a certain amount of capital on their books. The capital is there to keep them solvent even if their assets lose value, so the amount they're required to have depends on how risky their assets are. If they have, say, a bunch of crummy C-rated securities on their books, they have to maintain a full load of capital to back them up. But A-rated securities are less likely to lose value, so for those they only have to maintain 50% of the normal capital levels. And for AAA securities, they can get by with only 20% or less. After all, AAA securities are pretty unlikely to lose value. Right?
This was one of the reasons behind the CDO frenzy of the past few years. If you slice and dice a bundle of securities so that most of them are AAA-rated, then you can reduce the capital you need to back them up, which frees up that capital for other uses.
But then everything came crashing down, the ratings on those bundles tumbled, and suddenly banks had to pony up more capital to back them up. What to do? Answer: slice 'em and dice 'em all over again. Welcome to the re-remic:
The way it works is that insurers and banks that hold battered securities on their books have Wall Street firms separate the good from the bad. The good mortgages are bundled together and create a security designed to get a higher rating. The weaker securities get low ratings.
....A hypothetical example cited in research by Barclays Capital said that a $100 million asset that required $2 million in capital at a triple-A rating may require $35 million if downgraded to double-B-minus. At triple-C, the capital requirement might rise to 100%, or $100 million.
In a re-remic, three-fourths of the same asset may regain a triple-A rating, requiring just $1.5 million in capital, Barclays said. The remaining one-quarter may require 100% capital, but the total capital requirement would fall to $26.5 million.
...."There is $350 billion to $400 billion in market value of securities with no natural buyer due to their rating," Barclays said in a June report. "The re-remic market provides a way out of this gridlock by creating new AAA securities, which are likely to be viewed as attractively priced."
Shiny new AAA securities! Hooray! And there's more! Ratings for re-remics come from the same ratings agencies that bollixed up the original ratings. And investment banks pocket fat fees for performing the financial alchemy. What could possibly go wrong?
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Anyone who can actually
Anyone who can actually separate sh*t from shinola, or as my grandpappy used to say, anyone who can pluck the raisins from a turd deserves some pay.
Personally, though, I'd be mighty suspicious that they are simply breaking up the turd and selling the pieces as chocolate covered raisins.
But as long as the government makes sure no one gets hurt, well, open up children, we're eating candy tonight!
turds, inc.
Unfortunately, our economy is selling turds, the public is buying, and the price is going up.
Jesus is coming, look busy.
It's been more than a year,
It's been more than a year, and we have not taken a single step towards stopping this problem. It was suggested we break the banks into smaller units and *you* balked.
Nothing is going to happen.
We lost. The bankers and their buddies (Obama) won.
Deal with it.
In a re-remic, three-fourths
In a re-remic, three-fourths of the same asset may regain a triple-A rating ... the total capital requirement would fall to $26.5 million.
This can mean one of two things. Either the ratings of the sliced up assets are fraudulent, or the capital requirements for different ratings have not been calibrated to the formulas used to arrive at those ratings. If it's the latter, then it's not clear that the banks or the rating agencies are at fault here -- it's the capital requirement rules that need to be fine-tuned.
It's like breaking up a company and selling its parts. That's often more lucrative than selling the whole company, and there's nothing illegal about it.
Contrary to the hyper ventilating
The reslicing is not per se particularly "financial alchemy" (although it takes a strong stomach to buy the lower rated sections), as taking a known bond and repackaging the "primary" income streams. That's actually a fairly old procedure. The US in fact successfully promoted such an approach with the Latin de
Securitised instruments rarely go entirely belly-up, and if the models are conservative enough regarding component credits default rates, the procedure is a perfectly valid method separating lower risk income streams from higher risk. I would take JS's observation supra, and affirm the later, it is not the ratings agencies at fault (and yes, it's like breaking up a company and selling its parts), but the over dependency of prudential capital requirements on a tool that was intended originally for other purposes.
The general problem here is that the Regulatory world has tried to exploit a mechanism - ratings - for a purpose it was never intended for. Ratings, I would remind (in fact, I suspect teach) Drum readers were invented in the private sector for the private sector own consumption. It was not until about 30-40 years ago that regulators seized on ratings as a tool to exploit. However, investment ratings and prudential ratings probably don't serve the same precise purpose, and putting the two into one basket has clearly polluted investment ratings to the detriment of their regulatory usage. The Golden Goose of ratings was killed by over exploitation by regulation.
Shorter Loon: since the
Shorter Loon: since the technique isn't intrinsically flawed, we should assume that the honorable people doing it are being careful and prudent in its application.
Of course, how hysterical of anyone to suspect otherwise. What earthly reason would we have to be suspicious of this sort of "financial alchemy" (and the WSJ's use of that term is clear evidence that Rupert has turned it into a propaganda organ for the Red Brigades).
What percentage
of the underlying mortgages are being paid on time? That's what counts isn't it? Is it still 90%? Not everybody is under water in an overpriced house with a liar loan and separating the almost certain to default from the viable mortgages is a first step.
True. However, as the base
True.
However, as the base holding up housing prices in the mid to high end crumbles, the strategic defaulters are going to annihilate what stability remains.
Take a look at this post from Jim the Realtor and especially watch the video.
"The researchers found that homeowners start to default once their negative equity passes 10% of the home’s value. After that, they “walk away massively” after decreases of 15%. "
http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2009/09/30/strategic-defaults/
This is what is coming down the pike......
Securitized?
Rather than trust a rating agency an investor should check the paperwork and make sure the security is all there. The slapdash work done last time 'round didn't work out so well and a lot of AAA stuff turned out to be zzz.
The concept is fine and could help move some toxic assets. But, as we're hearing a lot from Congress, the devil is in the details.
you are getting sleepy!
My guess is that the rating agencies are doing a bang-up job with these securities, and the stuff that's being rated AAA will be fine. If the "we'd rate it if cows structured it" philosophy reigned today and it blew up, well that probably would be the end of the rating agencies.
No, they'll wait a few years before monetizing their unique position in the financial system again. Right now, the price isn't high enough.
After the first sentence I
After the first sentence I thought maybe they'd invented a "capital-like substance", perhaps a currency propped up by a yet to be popped bubble.
It is indeed bizarre that
It is indeed bizarre that government regulations (such as capital requirements) are linked to ratings developed by non-government entities (the ratings agencies) whose income is derived from the entities being regulated (the banks).
But regardless of who develops the ratings used for regulation, such ratings have to exhibit a certain internal mathematical consistency to prevent the type of arbitrage that Kevin's post described. In other words -- if I combine certain instruments, or break them up in parts, I should not be able to achieve regulatory advantage. Markets always take advantage of mis-priced assets, and the pricing of many financial instruments (including derivatives) is carefully calculated to prevent arbitrage opportunities. In this case, it's the regulator's job to do that.
Forbes 400
Here's a link to the Forbes 400 richest Americans. Anyone you know?
http://www.forbes.com/2009/09/29/forbes-400_rich-list-09_all_slide.html?...
This sounds a lot like
This sounds a lot like tranches.
Buckle up, it's going to be another bumpy ride.
Football season
Somehow, this bright shiny new financial gimmick looks like last year's bright shiny new financial gimmick. Wall Street is playing the part of Lucy and they are encouraging us Charlie Browns that we'll kick the field goal this time. We can't be so stupid that we let this happen again, can we???
Don't be surprised when the American taxpayers wind up flat on the ground after Lucy pulls the football (and more tax dollars) away yet again.
Hmm? How could it happen again?
I am curious Kevin how you reconcile the previous post with this one? When it comes to banker's pay incentives, you thought that may be they just did not know there were going to be problems, so you excluded pay incentives as a motivator.
But here is round 2, and they have experienced the certainty of the issues and in their approach. We might speculate that the motivations for their behavior are different now , but why do that? It seems more plausible that the motivations then and now are the same.
Now, I might reconcile utter stupidity of a continuance in this approach by speculating that something has made them shortsighted. And if it makes them shortsighted now, then it would have probably blinded them before. But what could create this?
Hmm, pay incentives? Paraphrase Upton Sinclair, it is difficult for someone to believe something when their salary depends on them not believing it. I am sure they just do not believe it will happen again. How could it?
On the face of it, this is a
On the face of it, this is a reasonable solution to the problem and simply amounts to the rating agencies correcting their mistakes. The Fed/government may buy up the bad securities, but in case you haven't noticed that is just what they have been trying to do all along. As far as current CDO's are concerned this solution is as good as any. Whether CDOs should be quashed in the future is another question.
There have been bad consequences to the bad ratings and the ratings outfits will have an incentive to get them right, at least for a while until the attention of the public and the regulatory agencies wanders.
What's wrong with chocolate
What's wrong with chocolate covered cotton?
rinse and repeat until impoverished
A fantastic opportunity has been created to insure these re-remic's. Unfortunately, the bankers will expect the taxpayer to be the insurer of last resort when these 'securities' default and the re insurers are found to have no reserves to back up their liabilities.
Had the banks and insurance companies that were insolvent in 2008 been closed and their executives investigated for every unlawful act, regardless of how trivial, tried, and heavily fined, if found guilty, a repeat of the past financial market failure might not happen so quickly.
btw: this was totally predictable, in fact, necessary
I'd have to read the whole article, but it looks like these re-remics are a good thing. What it appears they're doing is sifting out the bad assets and combining them into an unmarketable sludgepile that doesn't contaminate the good assets.
The other dirty reason for scrabbling to get AAA rating, of course, is that pension funds and other similar organisations like charities are forbidden by law from investing in anything rated any less secure. There's no other way to extract the cash from these most liquid of cash sources except to fraudulently misrepresent the risk.
Kevin, Do you still believe
Kevin,
Do you still believe that the ratings agencies are not in the top 5 of reasons for the financial fiasco?
They are ground zero.
Smoke and mirrors, smoke and mirrors.
You can't steal them blind if they know what you are doing.
Whenever I get depressed
Whenever I get depressed about Wall Street criminals and their assorted enablers in government and regulatory agencies, I find solace in knowing that Roman Polanski is being extradited. After law enforcement sat on their hands for thirty years, their action at this moment sends a strong message to elite law-breakers and child molesters everywhere that justice never sleeps and the legal guardians of this great nation will hunt down all those reprobates who believe they can flee the litigation of a plea bargain. The world has become an infinitely safer place. American law will in fact punish the wealthy and privileged in special circumstances (especially those sybarites of perversion stupid enough to express an interest in returning to this country). Money is no obstacle in such a pursuit, for it is well-known that ivory towers, though expensive to maintain, repay their investors three-fold. Lady Justice, resplendent in her blindfolded nakedness, sweaty and enseamed chastity belt lagging behind her, thus staggers defiantly onward down her whimsical path toward parody.
Polanski and delayed justice
Polanski is an old man. They are putting him in a free retirement home.
re-remix
Why should the banks take care to do anything right? The public bought their bad assets, they got their bonuses. Where is their incentive to take less risk, to be responsible with the money of third parties?
They will do it, do it again, until they have all the money.
Come on, folks, Wall Street,
Come on, folks, Wall Street, the top 1%, big business, the media owners, and Republicans have yearned for a Banana Republic for years and years -- it's almost here. Companies lay off another 1,500/2,000 employees, their stock jumps 10 points and the middle-class gets a little smaller. 5 million manufacturing jobs have disappeared oversees since 2000 and things aren't getting better -- we lost 230,000 jobs this past month. When the former middle-class in this country can't even afford to buy made in China stuff in Wal Mart we may see a Banana Republic type revolution!!
Everything could go wrong
To your last question what could go wrong i think this is a no brainer and that a lot if not everything can go wrong but lets be real things have been off for quite sometime and to assume everything is going to be right now would be not a good bet.
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The way it works is that insurers and banks that hold battered securities on their books have Wall Street firms separate the good from the bad. The good mortgages are bundled together and create a security designed to get a higher rating. The weaker securities get low ratings.


