Is the Recession Over?

| Thu Oct. 29, 2009 7:54 AM PDT

No surprise here: GDP was up 3.5% in the third quarter.  But is the growth sustainable?

The cash-for-clunkers program helped boost consumer spending on durable goods....Similarly, economists say the $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers helped revive spending on housing.

....Stagnant consumer demand and withering consumer confidence have left companies wary of hiring more employees — or, for that matter, taking any expensive risks. The jobless rate reached 9.8 percent in September, its highest rate in 26 years. According to Thursday’s report, business investment in buildings and other structures fell at an annual rate of 9 percent in the third quarter.

The Wall Street Journal also provides a note of skepticism: "Since the federal stimulus reached its maximum effect in the third quarter and the unemployment rate remains high, there's uncertainty over the sustainability of the recovery."  As for myself, I'm curious to know not just where the growth is coming from, but where it's going to. Wage growth has been weak this year, and there's not much sign that the recovery in Q3 did much to change that.  So who's getting the bulk of the benefit?

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Comments

My first hand knowledge

All I know for sure is that some tech and health insurance companies are finally allocating some money to hire contractors for technical positions. There was almost a complete drought since the start of the year. As usual the positions have no guaranteed length. They may say six months or twelve months but everyone knows they may be ended at any time.

Is this sustainable? I have no idea.

Tripp

MoJo Site Broken Again

The next thread "Savings Glut, Investment Drought" has no place to add comments.

Kevin Drum: "I'm curious to

Kevin Drum: "I'm curious to know not just where the growth is coming from, but where it's going to"

At least part of the answer is in the rest of the article:

NYT: "A slower drawdown in inventories was one bright spot in Thursday’s report, as it indicated that businesses have largely sold out their current stock and may rev up orders in the coming months to replenish supplies."

Of course that's a standard effect this far into a slump, and can only provide a limited effect.

NYT: "Like many American manufacturers, Ms. Westlund-Deenihan says that international business has helped keep her company afloat."

Which is exactly why we need a still more competitive dollar, especially against the yuan (China hasn't moved the peg in a year). Oh, excuse me, "more competitive" is usually described as "weaker". In other news it's hard to get $100/hr for sweeping floors, so you may have to charge less. The logic is identical and debunks the idea that a falling dollar is a problem.

Bottom line: the US was consuming way more than it produced, so the only way to ramp up production of goods, services, etc. is to export more. If you don't drop the price of the buck that just won't happen.

Isn't the stimulus cash still flowing?

I thought I read somewhere that most of the stimulus cash nationwide hasn't even been spent yet. Wasn't that one of the criticisms of the stimulus, that it would take too long to move through the economy? *If* that's true, then the positive effect we're seeing may be sustained for a while as the rest of the stimulus is spent.

I have thought rebuilding

I have thought rebuilding consumer confidence -- and investor/business confidence -- is the only way to improve the economy. But short-term money-infusion gimmicks and even throwing out money by itself without creating a clear picture for the public of where it is going -- big picture, please -- is not going to do it, because there is little faith that the jobs created that way will last. It has to be (1) fundamental changes such as universal health insurance and credit card reform that show a commitment to reversing "The Great Risk Shift," and (2) creating jobs that, if not forever, may last for 10-20 years until the private economy, which has been devastated over the past nine years, can recover.

Private construction, it would seem, is essentially dead for a generation. It is said that we have badly neglected the infrastructure for at least 30 years, and that's where we can create the jobs that will be, and crucially will also be seen as, real jobs. That's assuming there is an aggregation of huge projects that can create millions of jobs that will remain on a genuine wish list after the current stimulus really kicks in over the next year or whatever. Most obvious is public transportation. Pitch more public transportation-building as a way to create good jobs -- along with noting we are falling behind every other OECD country, so it is something we need that will pay off in the future -- and direct job-creation spending like that might build more public support, enough to overcome the Republican naysayers.

That's a nice succinct and telling capsule for how inequality is a fundamental cause of things that have been happening. Too much money in the hands of the already-wealthy along with too little for everyone else seems to me a far better explanation than such nebulous concepts as too much Asian money sloshing around. When I see figurative terms like "sloshing" or "meltdown," it's a signal to me that the writer doesn't really understand the intricacies of what is being described.

Good news is good news

Who knows what the next quarter will bring? If I knew what was going to happen in the 60 seconds, I'd be at the $2 window.

Like the Dow cracking 10,000, this is good news that doesn't need ice water thrown at it.

Silicon Valley, where I live, is tangibly heating up. And small business, which needs just the right amount of desperation and optimism to bring us out of recession, is beginning to hire, one at a time. Five million microbusinesses and angel-funded startups, chronically on the edge of inadequate cash flow to fund growth, just got a reason to roll the dice.

Atmospherics count.

Where the growth is going

My guess is that a large chunk of that GDP growth is going to creditors as those who are employed draw down their debt levels. So yes, the growth is going to bankers... (*sigh*)

Exactly right, at least in

Exactly right, at least in my case. I'm getting paid more regularly now, but I'm not spending more. It's all going to my creditors, and the chief benefit is that my wife is getting less scary phone calls.
But if it sustains for a year I'll be able to build my credit back up, and then buy a new Ford Extinction.

The US standard economic

The US standard economic ideology is that free trade benefits the consumer, while the Chinese (no doubt mistakenly) believe that a job is preferable to a bargain.

Thus we have become a nation of consumers without jobs, and sent the jobs to an appreciative China. Win-win. Since our GDP is 70% debt financed consumerism, this means that growth in GDP continuously lowers our net worth so we become poorer all the time. Stiglitz is trying to figure this out.

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