34,000 New Troops for Afghanistan

| Tue Nov. 24, 2009 10:46 PM PST

Two weeks ago McClatchy reported — with details — that Obama was planning to send 34,000 new troops to Afghanistan.  On Monday they confirmed this:

As it now stands, the plan calls for the deployment over a nine-month period beginning in March of three Army brigades from the 101st Airborne Division at Fort Campbell, Ky., and the 10th Mountain Division at Fort Drum, N.Y., and a Marine brigade from Camp Lejeune, N.C., for as many as 23,000 additional combat and support troops.

In addition, a 7,000-strong division headquarters would be sent to take command of U.S.-led NATO forces in southern Afghanistan — to which the U.S. has long been committed — and 4,000 U.S. military trainers would be dispatched to help accelerate an expansion of the Afghan army and police.

....The administration's plan contains "off-ramps," points starting next June at which Obama could decide to continue the flow of troops, halt the deployments and adopt a more limited strategy or "begin looking very quickly at exiting" the country, depending on political and military progress, one defense official said.

"We have to start showing progress within six months on the political side or military side or that's it," the U.S. defense official said.

....As part of its new plan, the administration, which remains skeptical of Karzai, will "work around him" by working directly with provincial and district leaders, a senior U.S. defense official told McClatchy.

A few comments:

  • The McClatchy crew has been way ahead of everyone else on this story.
  • If they're right, Obama essentially made this decision in early November.  It's not entirely clear what all the meetings since then have been for.  Getting their PR ducks in a row?
  • If their "senior defense official" is correct, the plan does indeed include a strong tribal component, as blogged about last night.

One other thing: I'm sort of a connoisseur of the excuses that reporters use these days for relying on anonymous sources, and I really like this one: "U.S. officials all spoke on condition of anonymity because...one official said, the White House is incensed by leaks on its Afghanistan policy that didn't originate in the White House."  That's admirably direct.  Nobody wants to piss off the CinC!

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Comments

Some explaining to do

So rather than make a 40,000-troop mistake, the Obama administration opts for a 34,000-troop mistake. If this is really where he has chosen to go, his address to the nation will have to be a humdinger.

This is where he adopts a botched occupation with impossible goals. I can't imagine him narrowing those goals to the point where a 34,000-troop increase--or even a 100-thousand-troop increase--would bring them within range of achievement. Unless his speech slaps our aspirations down to a depressingly realistic level, he will be defining the terms of his failure, at the cost of even more American and Afghan lives.

And if he imagines that adopting the Bush-Cheney war will protect him from the crazy Right here at home, he is mistaken. They are licking their chops: more war profits, more killing, more insurgency, and more large and small, and guaranteed strategic and tactical failures by the Democratic administration.

Vietnamistan.

Vietnamistan.

Tribal

Boy, if the tribal component means warlords (euphemism is District commanders), then I'm alarmed, because between the Taliban and the warlords, they are both foxes in the chicken coop. Most of the so-called district commanders (or whatever) have zero credibility with the common people. They have been immersed in the drug trade, their sense of justice is medieval, and some of them have been outright sympathetic with the Taliban.
I think the only positive step I see here is the decision to send the 7000-strong division headquarters strictly for command and control, an element which has been conspicuously lacking for quite some time, contributing to the failure of the coalition to make any progress at improving the security and/or economic well being of the Afghans.
Most important, if the coalition doesn't completely shut down the god-damned Pakistani ISI and soon, none of this increase in troops on the ground will change shit.

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