Dissent of the Day

Had Sarah Palin petulantly quit her job because of frickin lawsuits, and wrote a book blaming everyone under the sun for her lousy performance. This is not a serious person, she is a total joke, and will never be president.

Campaigns are long, and her ability to speak in platitudes will wear on voters in Iowa, and god knows NH. She'll blow it, its a certainty.

Now having said that, I agree with the other person that Obama is probably better than even to lose in 2012 if the unemployment picture and overall economy is still lousy. And probably should lose if thats the case, btw.

The e-mailer is right.

In 1977 Reagan looked as laughable as a president as Palin does now. But voters in the middle vote on personality and economic conditions, not on intelligence or policy positions.

In 2000 Bush had far less qualifications for higher office than Palin does now. The Texas governorship is mostly ceremonial.

What I don't get is why people consider Palin to be worse than Romney, Huckabee, or any of the other viable Republican contenders.

It seems like because she's an attractive woman, people feel comfortable pointing out that 99% of what she says is either babble or lies, when they're afraid to attack John McCain or Mike Huckabee for doing the same thing.

They're all miserable people. That's the modern Republican party.

joke

When are the intelligent American people going to realize that there is something really wrong with Sarah Palin. She is a nut job.

I would never misunderestimate the stupidity of the electorate. I was young during the Reagan years, yet I could not understand what people saw in him. I thought Bush was a joke (and he was my governor). When he picked the craziest rightwinger out there for VP, I laughed. McCain was pretty much of an intellectual lightweight and a moral chameleon too. I wouldn't discount Palin yet. But whether it's her or Huckabee or Dobbs or whoever, don't count them out.

The inadequacies of the Republicans are only half the issue, maybe less. The abilities of the Democrats to seize defeat out of the jaws of victory is the real story here.

No way Palin gets the nomination. She's lazy and ignorant, and she just doesn't have the stamina for a long, tough primary slog. She's also developing a reputation as a demanding, erratic diva; I can't imagine any top-drawer Republican strategists wanting to take on the job of running her campaign. I think Huckabee's probably the most electable candidate from a general election standpoint, but the GOP will most likely go with John Thune.

Sarah Palin is taking the women's movement backwards. She is everything we fought against--women only getting some where because of their looks. When her looks go, she will be cast aside by all those who are using her no matter what.

McCain lost by about the margin you would expect given the economic conditions in November 2008. Palin had nothing to do with it.

Palin is unpopular now. Reagan was also unpopular and considered unelectable during the 70s. Carter, who had very low approval ratings, was ahead by 10 points for most of his reelection campaign. But in the end it tightened, and on election day it broke heavily for Reagan.

If Obama succeeds with his agenda and we see some economic improvements, he'll sail through reelection. If events turn out another way, a Republican will win in 2012 whoever it is.

Palin is popular enough with Republicans that she has a good shot at the nomination.

""""If she did get the nomination, Obama would destroy her. No matter the economic conditions, or the foul mood of the electorate, he would do it.""""

That's just nonsense -- and a type of self-delusion that is very dangerous to Democrats. I think Obama is a solid favorite to win reelection -- maybe even prohibitively so. But that's because I think the economy will be in much better shape by then. But let's be real: if the economy were in rough shape in the fall of 2012 -- I'm thinking of a double dip recession that pushes unemployment back up even higher than it is now -- ANY Democratic would be hard-pressed to keep the White House, even against an empty suit like Sarah Palin (who, let's face it, is likely to be more seasoned and media savvy by then, after several years in the white hot lights of the national spotlight).

Also, neither Reagan nor Bush were stupid men. Ronald Reagan was a reasonably successful actor who built a career in the cosmopolitan world of the Hollywood film industry, and then in corporate speaking, and finally in GOP politics as governor of California. I don't think he was an intellectual, but he wasn't a dumb man. He simply had a very black and white world view, and he possessed a very damaging ideology. I think Bush's major faults were laziness, ego, callousness, obstinacy, excessively narrow views, and a stunning lack of intellectual curiosity and self-reflection -- more so than stupidity as such (although he obviously had very poor communication skills).

My point is only that the Obama administration has to earn reelection. They can't count on getting bailed out by an inferior opposition.

@stevehigh 4:32pm
...just as they were for Goldwater, McGovern, Jerry Brown, and Buchanan, all of whom were damned effective gatherers of small donations.

Yes, and we remember all their presidencies in our history books.
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And several commenters: Any resemblance between Saint Ronny and Nutbag Sarah stops with the (R) after their names. I couldn't stand Reagan, and thought he was very dangerous for the country, but he was a respected national figure, as pointed out above. Two terms as governor of a state bigger than most countries, decidedly not a victim of his ideology (he understood political compromise and practiced it all the time) and a widely-known and respected politician since the Goldwater campaign of 1964, who worked his way up to the nomination the old-fashioned way.

By contrast, Sara was a 1/2 term, quitting governor of the smallest (population density) state who was rocketed to prominence by a hideous decision of an old, out-of-touch nominee. She has no big state experience, really no governing experience, no campaigning experience and especially no compromising experience. She is no Reagan. She's not even a Romney or a Huckabee.

And while I certainly don't misunderestimate the ability of the nutbag wing of the nutbag party to go into full high dudgeon, and to get enough pluralities in enough primaries and caucuses to actually capture the nomination for her, there is no way, at the head of the ticket, that she can be hidden and protected from the voters and the press. it didn't even work when she was the Veep candidate.

She's both a joke and a threat. She's a joke to those who want somebody who can actually govern and a threat because of the people who support her. However, keep on stiffing the people who wait on line for hours in inclement weather to get an autograph and she will be toast by Tuesday.

Then it's Glenn Beck's turn for the spotlight.

Huckabee is gaining weight again. When he starts slimming down, that's when we should start to worry.

The "big money" GOP are Palin's biggest boosters. It wasn't a grassroots popular movement that brought Palin to national prominence. Well-financed conservative activists got her placed on the 2008 ticket and then adopted her as their national leader.

If Republicans think they have a good shot at winning they're more likely to nominate Palin. They only nominate "moderate" candidates when they think they're going to lose and are attempting to play to the center.

Palin isn't significantly different from either Romney or Huckabee, and her odds of winning the 2012 election are about the same.

There's an old saying in Hollywood that the difference between an actress and a sex symbol is menopause. Palin will be around 48 in 2012 and she'd better hope she'll hold up in front of the cameras otherwise she'll be toast. Once she loses that "cute" factor what else will she have to sell to the public? Maybe Tina Fey will replace Biden in 2012 and boy would that be a hoot.

Huey Long might have had a shot in 1936 except for his unfortunate accident....

Hmmm, I dare say JFK's re-election would have gone swimmingly except for his unfortunate accident as well...

As for Palin:

No shot at the presidency. The media narrative is that she's a clown and a fraud, and that won't change by 2012. She's got more chance of joining MENSA than of becoming president.