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Holiday Sales Update
| Sun Nov. 29, 2009 10:38 PM PST
Here are the holiday weekend shopping results for 2009:
Roughly 195 million consumers shopped in stores and online over the Black Friday weekend, up from 172 million last year, according to the National Retail Federation. But average spending dropped to $343.31 per person from $372.57 a year ago. Overall sales for the four-day weekend totaled $41.2 billion, up marginally from $41 billion last year, the NRF estimated.
....November sales were likely boosted by a spate of pre-Black Friday deals. Spending on Black Friday itself rose 0.5%, or $54 million, to $10.7 billion this year from last, according to ShopperTrak RCT Corp.
Everyone is probably tired of hearing this from me, but as usual, these numbers are misleading because they aren't adjusted for inflation. CPI numbers for this month aren't in yet, but most likely the November-November inflation rate was about 2.0%, which means that sales volume was actually down 1.5% this year in real terms. That compares to an increase of about 2% last year in real terms.
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Comments
The government reported last
Submitted by Caspian of the Lake on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 3:22 AM PST.
The government reported last week that initial unemployment claims dropped to 466,000 finally falling below 500,000. This was greeted with proclamations of recovery. Unfortunately the 'headline number' was a seasonally adjusted number. The actual number was 543,926.
Undoubtedly Government Run Media will greet the Holiday Sales numbers with the same elation they did the unemployment numbers and cite it as further proof the stimulus package is working.
(But only if we could have some more, Sir, please.)
BTW
Submitted by RZ (not verified) on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 3:42 AM PST.
Probably worth mentioning that the inflation rate you appear to be using excludes energy costs. You're probably assuming that nobody gives gasoline for Christmas.
America's Research Group,
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 3:42 AM PST.
America's Research Group, which has a stellar prediction record, estimates that there will be a drop (nominal) of 2.9% (that is -2.9% compared to last year). They are usually within a tenth of a percentage point accurate. Now adjust for inflation to 4.9% and we're in serious deflation territory. Bernanke needs more helicopters.
I'm not surprised. I'm one
Submitted by Alejandro (not verified) on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 4:34 AM PST.
I'm not surprised. I'm one of the people who spent less this year. Due to Obama's disastrous economic policies and the massive tax hike that will be needed to pay for his giveaways to the UAW and the elderly, what money I do have will need to last me when and if his politicking costs me my job. Should health "reform" pass, look for unemployment in the 20% range.
Massive Tax Hike?
Submitted by Detroit Dan on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 5:39 AM PST.
I don't believe we'll need a massive tax hike. The federal government can sustain deficits indefinitely, and in fact does so routinely. See Modern Monetary Theory...
I know I'll get lambasted
Submitted by Art Eclectic on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 7:23 AM PST.
I know I'll get lambasted for this, but I don't care.
Good. I hope the holiday sales numbers are decimated this year. The people running this country need to get the memo that we cannot continue to sustain an economy buying cheap consumer items produced in other countries. We need to bring back the concept of actually making those things here and creating jobs for people that pay a living wage to raise a family on. We don't need anymore retail clerk jobs, we need manufacturing jobs. Just how much stuff do they think a nation of Walmart cashiers is going to be able to buy? The home equity ATM and credit cards masked the problem for the past 10 years but it is front and center now.
You're about 100 years
Submitted by M. (not verified) on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 7:39 AM PST.
You're about 100 years behind the times. Rich countries can't, generally don't (without massive government intervention) and shouldn't make things, because they can't compete with the poorer countries. The labor costs, as we continue to find out, are prohibitive.
The labor costs are only
Submitted by Art Eclectic on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 9:46 AM PST.
The labor costs are only prohibitive because our housing costs are so outrageous. Get housing costs in line and we start becoming competitive.
Not to mention, just what are "rich" countries supposed to do to earn incomes? What do we do with the 50% of of workers who are below average in terms of skills? Large constituencies of underemployed workers living on the public dole is not a viable economic strategy.
You have to give people a way to earn a living wage and raise a family, or you have to stop them from breeding (which will never happen.) If you leave this situation stand for too long, you have disastrous civil unrest that leads to revolution. One out of every five residents of Los Angeles County is on some kind of public support. This is an untenable situation and only going to get worse. California keeps raising taxes and the productive people who generate tax revenue keep leaving. The combination of excessive housing costs and lack of living wage jobs is creating ghettos of underemployed workers who have no hope of achieving the middle class dream.
Where are all our people in this "rich country" supposed to find incomes? Are you looking forward to having your income tax double so we can support all those people on welfare, food stamps, section 8 and unending unemployment benefits? Wouldn't it be better if we just had JOBS for them?
Um, also because 195 mil. *
Submitted by derwing (not verified) on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 8:06 AM PST.
Um, also because 195 mil. * $372 >> $41 billion.
Rich Countries
Submitted by Detroit Dan on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 8:45 AM PST.
Rich countries shouldn't make things? Doesn't that sound weird? So what should rich countries do?
Manage things. Think of new
Submitted by M. (not verified) on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 9:21 AM PST.
Manage things. Think of new things and then create them. In short, the only money-making propositions in the U.S. today. Outside of highly specialized niches, manufacturing in this country is a dead item, at least in the absence of government subsidies, and that goes double for Europe.
Most of the "things" supposedly made in this country are put together using parts made elsewhere as it is.
"Manage things." How
Submitted by alex (not verified) on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 11:50 AM PST.
"Manage things." How charmingly nebulous. Care to be a little more specific about what things we should bring our fabulous management expertise to bear on. Perhaps financial services?
"Outside of highly specialized niches, manufacturing in this country is a dead item, at least in the absence of government subsidies, and that goes double for Europe."
Care to explain Germany's trade surplus then? And very little of it is attributable to government subsidies.
"Most of the 'things' supposedly made in this country are put together using parts made elsewhere as it is."
To the extent that's true, it's backwards. Final assembly is typically the most labor intensive part of manufacturing. Depending on the specific product, it generally makes more sense for wealthy countries to make components, and for them to be assembled in low labor cost countries.
Like many others who sing the "can't manufacture things here" tune you're stuck in the assumption that manufacturing consists of somebody on an assembly line turning a wrench, and that direct labor costs are a big portion of the cost of manufacturing items. But in many types of manufacturing direct labor (even at US rates) is less than 10% of cost. The Germans maintain a trade surplus despite having higher industrial labor costs than the US. Many types of component manufacturing, like semiconductors, optical components and so forth are about as far as you can get from the greasy low skill assembly line stereotype.
Reminds me of a cartoon I saw.
Submitted by jrw on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 6:20 PM PST.
Little boy is sitting on his suit-and-tie-clad father's knee. His father says, "Yes son, daddy does make things. Daddy makes things called deals".
It's a good question.
Submitted by jrw on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 9:52 PM PST.
Let's hope we find an answer.
Actually the October to
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 9:07 AM PST.
Actually the October to October CPI numbers DROPED 0.18% from 216.573 in 08 to 216.177 in 09.
What Anonymous said. In
Submitted by David in Nashville (not verified) on Tue Dec. 1, 2009 10:00 AM PST.
What Anonymous said. In fact, year-over-year change in the CPI has been negative since March. Kevin, what evidence have you that the November figures will show an upsurge to 2 percent? And why do you think the media should account for inflation using a figure that you yourself admit hasn't been reported yet?
"Everyone is probably tired
Submitted by M. (not verified) on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 9:23 AM PST.
"Everyone is probably tired of hearing this from me..."
Actually, a bit, yes. There's a fine line between worrying about and reporting on what you believe to be bad news, vs. hoping for and thriving on it.
Jobs are more important than
Submitted by Bosco (not verified) on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 10:25 AM PST.
Jobs are more important than wealth. At the present rate of job loss, we are headed for breakdown of civil order within 10 years.
How can we do it: Import Tariffs is the only way. Everyone says this is impossible, but is it really ... why?
I don't think tariffs are
Submitted by alex (not verified) on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 11:55 AM PST.
I don't think tariffs are impossible, but fixing exchange rates is a better approach. The Chinese peg acts as both an Chinese export subsidy and a tariff (for imports to China). Not that China doesn't have high tariffs too.
Not one credit card purchase
Submitted by Chris R (not verified) on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 12:12 PM PST.
Never again will I use a credit card. Screw the banks. They are ripping me off blind.
That said; I did go shopping and made some very good purchases for the ones I love.
shopping fever
Submitted by thersites on Mon Nov. 30, 2009 2:15 PM PST.
Last year I went out and bought a shirt, which I happen to be wearing right now.
This year I bought my wife some insulin. Merry Christmas, honey. Don't use it up too fast.
Art Eclectic is exactly right. That we've gotten to the point where our well-being (as it's usually measured) depends on a frenzy of mindless consumption is a symptom of how screwed up we have become, and how morally bankrupt our definition of well-being has become.
We will become a less comsumptive society, but the transition could be very ugly.
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