Revisiting the Intelligence Failure
Was the underwear bomber plot an egregious breakdown of U.S. intelligence? Bruce McQuain at QandO summarizes the case for a massive failure to connect the dots:
- His dad, a former minister in Nigeria, informed the US embassy there that his son had been radicalized (the dad obviously had a reason for concern).
US intelligence had been following him for a while, dubbing him “the Nigerian” (one assumes there was a reason).- He was on a watch list (one assumes there was a reason).
- He had been banned from Britain (yup, one assumes there was a reason).
- The British intelligence service had identified him to our intelligence agencies in 2008 as a potential threat (sigh, uh, yeah, reason).
- He’d just visited Yemen, an al Qaeda hotbed (given the first 5, one can reasonably guess at the reason).
- He bought a one-way ticket to the United States in Africa through Europe (red flag 1).
- He paid cash (red flag 2).
- He checked no luggage (red flag 3).
You can find a pretty similar outline almost anywhere. But the more we learn, the less this seems to be holding water. Let's go through the list one by one:
- Jim Arkedis, a former intelligence analyst: "For the record, 99 percent of the time, walk-in sources to U.S. Embassies are of poor-to-unknown quality. That includes friends and family members who walk into the embassy and claim their relatives are potential dangers. Why? Family relations are tangled webs, and who really knows if your uncle just might want you arrested in revenge for that unsettled family land dispute."
- This is true. But we didn't have a name, only a tip that "a Nigerian" might be planning an attack.
- Yes. But as the LA Times puts it, he was on a list of half a million people with "suspected extremist links but who are not considered threats."
- Yes, but not because of any suspected terrorist ties. From the New York Times: "[Home Secretary Alan] Johnson said Mr. Abdulmutallab’s application to renew his student visa was rejected in May after officials had determined that the academic course he gave as his reason for returning to Britain was fake....The rejection of the visa renewal appeared to have been part of a wider process initiated by British authorities this year when they began to crack down on so-called fake colleges that officials said had been established in large numbers across Britain in an attempt to elude tightened immigration controls."
- No, they didn't. From the Telegraph: "Diplomatic sources said that the Prime Minister’s spokesman had intended to refer to information gleaned by MI5 after the Christmas Day incident following an exhaustive examination of records going back through Abdulmutallab’s time in Britain up to October 2008."
- True.
- No, it was a roundtrip ticket.
- Nigeria and Ghana (where Abdulmutallab bought his ticket) are largely cash economies. Andrew Sprung tells us that Abdulmutallab "would certainly raise no alarms by paying cash."
- This is apparently true.
The Christmas bombing attempt might well turn out to be a serious intelligence failure. But the evidence so far suggests that the only red flags known to U.S. intelligence were (a) a walk-in warning of dubious value from Abdulmutallab's father, (b) warnings that "a Nigerian" was planning an attack, (c) Abdulmutallab's recent trip to Yemen, and (d) his lack of checked luggage. That's not very much.
We should all keep an open mind on this. But the more facts that come out, the less it seems as if the intelligence failure was really that serious. There were only a few vague warnings in the system, not the panoply of blinking red alarms that we've been hearing about. If the current information turns out to be true, it's hard to imagine that any real-life intelligence system would ever have been likely to pick up on a guy like Abdulmutallab. Before December 25th, he just didn't seem that dangerous.
Comments
>>his lack of checked
>>his lack of checked luggage>>
I travel extensively and never check luggage if I can avoid it. Checking luggage risks damage to the luggage by airline handlers or the TSA, delays waiting for it and losing it. Traveling with only carry-on is not unusual behavior among frequent flyers.
In other words, I don't find the lack of checked luggage at all suspicious.
The biggest problem to me ..
is the fact the underpants bomber's father was a prominent member of Nigerian society .. which the local embassy would have known .. how often does a prominent member of society walk into a police station(or in this case .. the American Embassy) and say their son is a security threat? .. I'd wager not very often .. if at all .. so to me .. that would have set off all sorts of red flags
According to diplo types
I've heard recently, it actually is pretty common. Worth passing the info on, but absolutely not a big red flag.
Just send me your bank account number . . .
I get emails from Nigerian bankers all the time, and I hardly ever believe them.
Re: the British passport
Re: the British passport denial.
I would argue we should be doing much better data sharing with allies, and that, if something like this comes up, AND YOUR NAME IS ALREADY ON THE 500k STRONG WATCH LIST, your name should then be flagged and added to the no-fly list.
Yes, he may have been denied a visa by the UK merely because the academic program was suspect, but in my book that makes the person suspect.
Don't get me wrong -- there ought to be a robust and efficient appeal process that enables wrongly flagged folks to get their name off no fly lists.
But still, the onus should be on the person to prove why he/she is legitimately interested in traveling to the states when he/she has ALREADY been denied permission by another western nation.
To do this we're going to need to get much better with software and database technology. I think this stuff is really key given the huge workload (half a million names!) and the inevitably finite nature of the human resources entrusted with the task of being gatekeepers. I mean, technology is supposed to be one of America's advantages...
By the way, I saw you on Moyers over the weekend, Kevin. You done good. A little depressing, but you done good.
Which reminds me (somewhat off topic but whatever): if Obama and the Democrats don't make battling Wall Street a political priority once health care is passed, they richly deserve the huge losses they're going to get in November. I mean, I disagree with a lot of my fellow liberals about the intentions of the Obamites (in short, I think they're not sell-outs, rather, they're people facing the unpalatable reality flowing from the fact that Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman get to write the health care bill).
In other words, getting solid financial reform enacted might not be politically feasible at this juncture, but who could possibly fail to see that, at very least, it's good politics? How is the GOP POSSIBLY going to defend the fat cats against an angry, spittle-flecked, really truly deeply pissed off Barack Obama who's loudly taking the battle to Wall Street in defense of Main Street? I bet doing so saves us eight or nine House seats. I can forgive the Obama White House the existence of the filibuster -- it's not their fault. But I can't forgive political stupidity. Failure to take the gloves off once Obama signs the health care bill is sheer stupidity.
Don't forget he the huge ties
Don't forget he the huge ties he had to Santa Fe, Southern Pacific and Cunard.
There's a conspiracy and you guys refuse to see it.
*****how often does a
*****how often does a prominent member of society walk into a police station(or in this case .. the American Embassy) and say their son is a security threat?*****
In addition to the explanation given by Kevin above, I think we need to examine the time line and the work load of the security people entrusted with checking out these leads.
Again, there are supposedly half a million names on the watch list.
I think it's entirely possible that, once his dad walked into the embassy to report his concerns, Abdulmutallab’s file WAS given to someone to investigate; but the investigator probably had fifty or sixty (or three hundred or seven hundred) files ALREADY in queue. Work back-loads tend to get unwieldy when you're working with lists containing hundreds of thousands of names.
That's why I think we've GOT to get much savvier with database technology and data sharing; it's simply not feasible for the finite number of human analysts we employ to sift through all the data that comes in on a daily basis, and correctly "connect the dots."
" That's why I think we've
"
That's why I think we've GOT to get much savvier with database technology and data sharing; it's simply not feasible for the finite number of human analysts we employ to sift through all the data that comes in on a daily basis, and correctly "connect the dots.""
That's a technobabble answer.
If you want cheap energy, we've got to get some unobtanium and power our reactors with it.
(after rerouting power
(after rerouting power through the main drive shield and reversing the polarity in the Jeffries tube.)
Techo Twaddle
I do not believe more electronic solutions get you anywhere at all. Already the American obsession with Techno solutions for human intel have merely produced an avalanche of data you can not act on. In part because unlike your society, most of the globe is not market - linked up, you need human beings to find things out.
Binding constraint and fancier search and screening tools are not going to solve the fact the rest of the world (outside developed nations) doesn't look like your society, viz the howling about cash as an indicator. In most of the rest of the planet that is an entirely unremarkable transaction.
50% are fools
If Palin, Hannity, Beck, Hume, Limbaugh and a few assorted nut job congresspeople trumpet this was an intelligence failure they are assured half the adult population (or more) will believe it wholeheartedly. Forever. Despite any indisputable evidence to the contrary. Fox News could start a campaign claiming East is West and compass manufacturers would be inundated with demands they retool their product. Perception is reality. The Left is losing more than a few battles for their inability to master that truth.
You Forgot Cheney
A loud Fox choir is always ready to sing, blaming any and all tragedies-of-the-day on Obama. They rehearse in preparation for a performance. Never mind that most of the intelligence on the undies bomber was collected during the Bush administration, it's still Obama's fault the "dots weren't connected". Even 'ole Buckshot Cheney took a couple swings at him. Cheney was on the job when warning signs of 9-11 were ignored, when the shoe bomber climbed aboard an airline. It was Cheney who used false WMD intelligence as an excuse to invade Iraq. It was Cheney who mistook his friend for a pheasant and shot him in the face. He's got no creds....you'd think he'd be hiding under a rock.
*****That's a technobabble
*****That's a technobabble answer.******
Not sure I get your point. Database technology -- the ability to sort names, append/enhance/refresh lists of names, meld different databases, etc. -- exists. We're not talking about science fiction.
Just to touch upon the UK visa issue -- the British government ought to have a list somewhere where they compile the names of people who have been turned down for visas. Why not append that data to our watch list on a regular basis? I say if we get a match, said name is flagged for addition to the no-fly list. Again, this sort of thing isn't without its technical challenges, but it's hardly the same as "Jeffrey Tubes" or whatever it is you're going on about.
Would you rather us NOT utilize existing technology for national security purposes? Seems silly to eschew using what by rights ought to be one of the West's advantages...
Not that such common sense use of technology is a substitute for human analysts; but it might be helpful in prioritizing the work load for our human analysts...
And also, getting much better with this sort of thing isn't going to be cheap; but I suspect the ROI will be superior to invading Yemen.
"*****That's a technobabble
"*****That's a technobabble answer.******
Not sure I get your point. Database technology -- the ability to sort names, append/enhance/refresh lists of names, meld different databases, etc. -- exists. We're not talking about science fiction. "
Yeah, guess who developed all that data mining software and for what purposes. So basically you're saying,
The data mining software developed by the NSA/CIA and Israelis used for snooping on telephone calls and emails and figuring out what's what about whos who isn't good and we need even more magical data mining software. Maybe something Excel 2010 compatible.
While I don't want to let
While I don't want to let political opportunists dictate security policy, I don't want to give the air-travel bureaucracy and industry a pass on this kind of snafu, either. Let's learn from this and move on.
Word on TPM is that the "one
Word on TPM is that the "one way ticket" is a speculation from anonymous sources, and is currently disputed.
Not sure about the "bought ticket for cash", or "didn't check luggage", but I'd bet the same anonymous source, for whatever that's worth.
ALL of those (one way, paid cash, no bags) are silly triggers. Just as soon as it's clear that those are triggers for scrutiny, they'll be useless. Exactly HOW hard is it to buy a round trip, use a debit card, and check a bag of old clothes?
There's one side of this that has a vested interest in making it look like the plot was oh-so-obvious, and couldn't possibly be missed. And they lie without hesitation or remorse, so take the 'anonymous' stuff with a big grain of salt.
Intelspection
Though I agree with all nine of your points-counterpoints, I would have to ask this: If there was some intel regarding a putative plot originating with a Nigerian national wouldn't that jump start a rummage through the database for more info? I believe our intel was aware that in November a man with baggies containing PET and a syringe had been detained by African Union security personnel from boarding a plane in Somalia. And I've read that there was info from a rival Canadian group regarding another group's plan to detonate a bomb aboard a US plane: this, however, was assessed to be a "poison pen letter" by the CIA et. al. Winnowing info seems to be the onerous task, one which intel agencies must reconstruct to achieve greater levels of efficacy.
Not even close
Anonymous 7:10 PM >"...That's a technobabble answer...."
BULLSHIT
You have no idea what you are talking about. The top several thousand banks on the planet (at least) do far more difficult data processing every flipin day, not to mention the securities markets around the world. And how about those ATM networks ?
Piece of cake unless, of course, certain bureaucracies and their supporters don't really want to the job.
''The war on terror is not a clash of civilizations. It is a clash of civilization against chaos, of the best hopes of humanity against dogmatic fears of progress and the future.'' - John F. Kerry
Bullshit response on your part, rather
The data problem is fundamentally different. First, in banking transactions, in most countries KYC require identifiers to be captured in a standard fashion, and second banking is a highly regulated activity.
Aside from Visas, very little of what the Nigerian did was terribly standardised nor likely to be captured in one of those magical electronic databases. You need actual human beings to find much of this out.
Welcome to emerging markets.
Once again
we need to thank Looneybury for showing off his complete ignorance of a critical technology in his field. Fellow, you have zero clues about the technology you are babbling about. No wonder the world of money manipulation is so fouled up. Good thing you aren't in the intelligence community.
"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats." - H. L. Mencken
Watch list fail
Regarding the watch list: I can't emphasize how counterproductive that list is. I know because I'm on it. Don't worry, I won't be blowing up my shorts soon.
My friend Pat Casey is on the list, too. And if your name is remotely familiar, you are on the list, too. Apparently, there is a badass somewhere in the world with my name. He probably has a "Cheney sucks" bumper sticker. Now it's my problem.
First, you can't print your boarding pass at home. That's not a big deal, except it means I can't get the seat I want. I end up being one of the last people to get a boarding pass, so I get last choice of seats. Being on the list is a great way to sit in the middle of a row. I haven't used an armrest in about a year and a half.
You can't get the boarding pass because you have to be personally ID'd by someone at the airline. Here's the drill. I go to one of the airport kiosks at the front desk - those are the ones where there are airline employees nearby. I do all the kabuki to get my pass, but of course I can't. So I flag down an employee. He asks what's wrong. I say to him, "I'm on the list."
This is the moment when the watch list is shown counterproductive. I mean, how would you react if someone tells YOU he is on a terrorist watch list? Wouldn't you be afraid, or at least a little concerned? This guy might be the next Mohammad Atta!
Well that's not what happens. The airline guy sighs. He rolls his eyes. I roll my eyes. If he's less polite, he yawns. He looks at my driver's license, then at me. He sweeps his ID card through the kiosk machinery, the way a grocery clerk overrides a sale at the register. And then I'm done.
It's a lousy process, and not because of my minor inconvenience. The problem is the false positives. The airline guy at a busy airport clears probably a dozen people a day, just like that. None of those people are real terrorists. No one takes the list seriously.
So what happens when a real terrorist meets the security screen? Well, ask Captain Underpants. He got through it.
Concerning #3
you wonder how many American names are among the half a million just because they were felt to be too strongly opposed to the policies of George W. Perhaps it is time to pare from the list people who were arrested in anti-war marches, picketed military bases, subscribe to The Nation, etc. Pare the list down to a manageable, meaningful level.
On the luggage issue
I would be willing to bet that he is a northerner and most likely a Hausa/Fulan. There is a really big culture of what is called "n'tahiya" which is basically bringing back a bunch of stuff for family and friends. I wouldn't be surprised if there are actually a lot of people who travel to the states with no luggage and return with as much as they can carry. This goes double for the son of a wealthy banker. I had a friend from Niger visit recently and the only reason he had any checked luggage was to bring n'tahiyas from Niger to returned peace corps volunteers in the states. His 3 boubous, prayer rug and hat could have easily fit in carry on luggage. On leaving however, he had 2 giant over weight bags and a 32 inch flat screen TV.
Northerner, Southerner... same same
It is typical for West Africans flying over to the UK, EU, US, (etc) from anywhere in West Africa to go over with minimal baggage and buy a ton of stuff to bring back for trading and/or as gifts for relatives.
If Cash and little luggage on the way over were taken as "Red Flags" from West Africa, the bloody Americans would be red flagging hundreds of thousands of travellers. It's pointless bollocks.
Compare to 9/11
How about a list of the red flags/warning lights for the 9/11 highjackers?
you're overlooking the most obvious things:
1. The bomber was African, and a Muslim.
2. President Obama is African, and a Muslim.
'nuff said. Wake up, people! Listen to the radio more often, you'll learn a lot that the liberal media are keeping from you.
You're kidding, right?
If not, then surely you can post somewhere more copacetic. You aren't changing any minds here, and especially not with a comment as shallow and predictable (and racist) as the one above. It is so provocative and useless that it amounts to nothing more than mental masturbation. You're embarrassing yourself.
The more I think about it, the more certain I am you're kidding. Please tell me you're kidding.
so, from this we learn
The enemy has found a weak point in our abilities and they're likely to try it again. Of course, that doesn't mean they won't also try some other things (like the suicide bomber in Afghanistan).
Did we learn anything else about THEM which will allow us to find them or to reveal their command & control structure? How exactly did they pick "the Nigerian"? Can what we know about that tell us anything more about where they are and how they're operating?
Americans Who Make Things Up and Panic
The U.S. media really needs to get a grip on the extent of the problem of people making things up and then having the fabrications spread as fact throughout the right wing panic-osphere...
How exactly did they pick
How exactly did they pick "the Nigerian"?
Young fool. Unfortunately, banning all young fools from air travel isn't very practical.
I feel that the whole deal
I feel that the whole deal was a false flag, designed to make Obama look bad, and distract from / delay the health care legislation.
This is a disturbing
This is a disturbing conclusion. "But the more facts that come out, the less it seems as if the intelligence failure was really that serious."
If we don't consider the failure "that serious" - we better all get ready from some pretty serious scary times ahead.
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