A Global Recession?
| Mon Jan. 21, 2008 7:00 PM PST
Not since 9/11 has the world seen markets tumble as quickly—or as dramatically—as they did today: While American markets were closed for the federal holiday, the MSCI World Index fell by 3 percent, and Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index plummeted by 5.7 percent.
This means a few things:
First of all, Bush and Bernanke's attempt to prevent a recession by calling for a stimulus package didn't quite do the trick. In fact, globally speaking, it probably made things worse:
The selloff followed falls on U.S. markets on Friday that ended the worst weekly performance on Wall Street for five years and a round of bloodletting in Asian markets yesterday, as investors were left underwhelmed by U.S. President George W. Bush's package of measures aimed at stimulating the world's largest economy.
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Second, our little subprime mortgage crisis is not just our problem any more—it's starting to affect the rest of the world as well:
Behind it all: Investors worldwide grew fearful that problems from massive losses on loans made to U.S. home buyers will cascade through the world financial system. For example, the Bank of China is now forecast to record a multibillion-dollar loss on U.S. mortgage investments.
And companies that insure bonds are incurring such massive losses on exotic securities based on mortgages that one is in receivership and others have had their credit ratings cut. That could cause financial institutions worldwide to mark down the value of a wide range of assets guaranteed by these insurance companies.
The biggest surprise, though, was the scope of today's plunge. Back when "emerging markets"—like those in China, India, Russia, and Brazil—first entered the global scene, they were seen as a stabilizing force. Since Asia and Europe's markets made up a big chunk of the global economy, a downturn in the U.S., the reasoning went, wouldn't automatically spell trouble for everyone. Not so today: China's Shanghai Composite Index plunged by 5 percent. India's SENSEX was down almost 9 percent. Brazil's Bovespa index fell by 6.6 percent, and Russia's Micex Index dropped 7.5 percent.
There has been speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates by .75 points later this month. Even if it does, odds are it's not a permanent solution; at best, it will only postpone what is beginning to look like an inevitable recession in the United States—and perhaps around the world.
Comments
Cutting interest rates will help one problem but exacerbate another. When the FED cuts interest rates it does this because of a domestic crunch in the housing sector where criminal practices were allowed to go unchecked until the whole card house collapsed?buying debt as an asset is indeed a dangerous game, especially when the debtor really lacks the ability to pay for the debt to begin with?it ain't called subprime for nothing. When the interest rate goes down the dollar should also follow it. In other words while the ability to pay debt in the domestic sector improves, the foreign trade sector will worsened and our debt will accelerate?potential consequences will be that the pressure on oil to increase in price will be strengthened because the return on the dollar is weakened (it goes down in value because interest rates go down) meaning that all nations that receive their revenues in dollars receive less income?hence the price of their commodities (oil) can go up in price. Further pressure to increase oil prices means that all nations that must import their oil are weakened. It means all imports into the US become more expensive and consequently nations that do a high volume of trade to the US will again have to decide whether they will purchase dollars (to keep the value of the dollar constant in relation to their own currencies and thus hold the price of their goods sold to the US constant?this form of subsidizing cuts into their profit margins and at some point they go bust). When they do this they also subsidize American foreign policy, which is what the source of the problem is to begin with?high prices in the oil market are because of the Iraq War and the giant American debt is because of the Iraq War (too much spending and on the wrong things) but because of the economic interdependence of the world all nations are affected?the dramatic rise in the price of oil is in itself inflationary. The next problem will be due to inflation because when the government borrows the interest rate ought to go up not down and when the package deal to help families consume is put into action, pressure on economic instruments ought to force the interest rate back up again?meaning the relief will be short lived while it appears that the real problem in the finance houses and the major banking centers is more deep rooted and there is no apparent end in sight to the flawed occupation of Iraq that has in economic terms become the most critical threat to national security as well as to global security. The actual price of the Neo-Conservative Idiot is proving to be equal to the stupidity of their philosophy in theory?meaning very costly indeed!
Cutting interest rates will help one problem but exacerbate another. When the FED cuts interest rates it does this because of a domestic crunch in the housing sector where criminal practices were allowed to go unchecked until the whole card house collapsed?buying debt as an asset is indeed a dangerous game, especially when the debtor really lacks the ability to pay for the debt to begin with?it ain't called subprime for nothing. When the interest rate goes down the dollar should also follow it. In other words while the ability to pay debt in the domestic sector improves, the foreign trade sector will worsened and our debt will accelerate?potential consequences will be that the pressure on oil to increase in price will be strengthened because the return on the dollar is weakened (it goes down in value because interest rates go down) meaning that all nations that receive their revenues in dollars receive less income?hence the price of their commodities (oil) can go up in price. Further pressure to increase oil prices means that all nations that must import their oil are weakened. It means all imports into the US become more expensive and consequently nations that do a high volume of trade to the US will again have to decide whether they will purchase dollars (to keep the value of the dollar constant in relation to their own currencies and thus hold the price of their goods sold to the US constant?this form of subsidizing cuts into their profit margins and at some point they go bust). When they do this they also subsidize American foreign policy, which is what the source of the problem is to begin with?high prices in the oil market are because of the Iraq War and the giant American debt is because of the Iraq War (too much spending and on the wrong things) but because of the economic interdependence of the world all nations are affected?the dramatic rise in the price of oil is in itself inflationary. The next problem will be due to inflation because when the government borrows the interest rate ought to go up not down and when the package deal to help families consume is put into action, pressure on economic instruments ought to force the interest rate back up again?meaning the relief will be short lived while it appears that the real problem in the finance houses and the major banking centers is more deep rooted and there is no apparent end in sight to the flawed occupation of Iraq that has in economic terms become the most critical threat to national security as well as to global security. The actual price of the Neo-Conservative Idiot is proving to be equal to the stupidity of their philosophy in theory?meaning very costly indeed!
This is yet another aspect of the total failure of neoconservatism. Its economic, military, foreign relations, health care, taxation, educational and environmental strategies have been unmitigated disasters for the entire world. Never have so few done so much to so many. We're fighting a subprime, futile war on $2 trillion borrowed from abroad, mostly from China, leaving future generations ad infinitum to pay the bills. It's astounding that these corrupt, ignorant, shameless, reckless scofflaws continue to pontificate as if they had any credibility left at all.
economists generally build fairly decent models, but politicians want snappy answers, and grab at sloppy thinking like "tax cuts are a stimulus that creates growth" -- this was always a gross oversimplification, but GWB flourishes it like a monkey pressing a lever for a reward, even when the hopper is empty.
Greenspan knew what he was doing when he set up this fiasco by letting the banks run wild. He wanted the monetary system to be destroyed, which will delay the world government for many years. With the destruction of the world monetary system, globalism will die. No NAFTA, No WTO.
remember way back when, there was that slick talking president who actually balanced the budget?
man, it was pretty sweet to think about not owing China $3T, and dropping $1B/day on a hubristic imperial adventure, and being able to own a home...
aNyWay...
let's move on, shall we?
it'll be interesting to hear what the presidential candidates will propose to get us out of this latest mess.
Not in order to equalize the US
with Nazi-Germany, but just as an example of an extreme war-
inflation, a full blown national
bankruptcy, what it is like and
what is necessary to achieve that, suggested search words:
+Hitlers' economic policy+ and
anything to that effect (there is quite a bit in english).
(Germany - West: by necessity
liquidated Hitlers' currency,
the Reichsmark, the central
bank ((google: +Hjalmar Schacht+)), the Reichsbank, and ... they liquidated the
gov't debts left by the regime
(out of necessity). Hitler was
a serious customer as borrower
rather than imposing direct
war taxes.
For the time after Hitler:
+Germany economy miracle+ ,
+Ludwig Erhard+ (minister for
economics from 1948 onwards).
It is a history like night day
and night, completely different policy, etc. - and it is pretty easy to follow up
matters right from scratch,
got out of the mess. I am
posting this here for anyone
interested in a case study both ways, into disaster and
out of it (before anyone jumps
out of the window, for instance: In Germany they were
definitely out of "marketworthy" goods and services, for the daily need
- remember the care parcels?
much appreciated then, to name
just one aspect. Or: Goebbels
propagated to refrain from
coffee in '36 because the regime ran out of foreign
currency (huge trade deficit)
and during the war they used
"substitute coffee" made out of whatever ... In other words:
the situation in the US could
be far worse. Even though the
war might cost a little bit.
JF, your post is nonsense. The Wiemar Republic(Jewish influenced) printed money and the average folk lost. In 33', as I recall, the new Chancellor came in and the economy took off. Unfortunately, the war intervened. In any revolution, Communist, Socialist, there are excesses, but no one can deny the booming economy under the new Chancellor.
Cutting interest rates will help one problem but exacerbate another. When the FED cuts interest rates it does this because of a domestic crunch in the housing sector where criminal practices were allowed to go unchecked until the whole card house collapsedbuying debt as an asset is indeed a dangerous game, especially when the debtor really lacks the ability to pay for the debt to begin withit ain't called subprime for nothing. When the interest rate goes down the dollar should also follow it. In other words while the ability to pay debt in the domestic sector improves, the foreign trade sector will worsened and our debt will acceleratepotential consequences will be that the pressure on oil to increase in price will be strengthened because the return on the dollar is weakened (it goes down in value because interest rates go down) meaning that all nations that receive their revenues in dollars receive less incomehence the price of their commodities (oil) can go up in price. Further pressure to increase oil prices means that all nations that must import their oil are weakened. It means all imports into the US become more expensive and consequently nations that do a high volume of trade to the US will again have to decide whether they will purchase dollars (to keep the value of the dollar constant in relation to their own currencies and thus hold the price of their goods sold to the US constantthis form of subsidizing cuts into their profit margins and at some point they go bust). When they do this they also subsidize American foreign policy, which is what the source of the problem is to begin withhigh prices in the oil market are because of the Iraq War and the giant American debt is because of the Iraq War (too much spending and on the wrong things) but because of the economic interdependence of the world all nations are affectedthe dramatic rise in the price of oil is in itself inflationary. The next problem will be due to inflation because when the government borrows the interest rate ought to go up not down and when the package deal to help families consume is put into action, pressure on economic instruments ought to force the interest rate back up againmeaning the relief will be short lived while it appears that the real problem in the finance houses and the major banking centers is more deep rooted and there is no apparent end in sight to the flawed occupation of Iraq that has in economic terms become the most critical threat to national security as well as to global security. The actual price of the Neo-Conservative Idiot is proving to be equal to the stupidity of their philosophy in theorymeaning very costly indeed!
any main power can benefit having its currency on a lower exchange. How?
imagine I am the american in charge of bying russian iron to rebuilt the towers blown back in 2001. We have agreed on a price of $5.o0 a pound.
when my currency is low I go buy giving the $5.00 a pound but not the value of it.
Submitted by stan crawford (not verified) on Fri Jan. 25, 2008 3:20 AM PST.
This time around it's sub-prime. A few years ago it was dot.com. Back in the 80's it was junk-bonds.
The names change, but game is still the same. Find fools that are promised unbelievable returns for unsecured debt.
In the end, it's the same,the ones selling walk away with fist-fulls of cash, while the buyers are left with worthless paper.
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