Obama: Is He Slipping?
| Thu May. 1, 2008 12:36 PM PDT
Barack Obama has a lead in pledged delegates and in all likelihood will end the primaries with more voter-determined delegates than Hillary Clinton. He's picking up superdelegates at a quicker pace than Clinton. He's ahead in the popular vote. Yet.....If one looks at the recent media coverage and the latest polls, it's hard not to wonder if Obama is losing altitude--and doing so at a dangerous rate. The media narrative of the race in the past month has been dominated by Wright and Bittergate. Do voters care about this stuff? Pundits and analysts argue--and wonder--about this. It's hard to tell how much of a connection exists between what appears on cable news shows--which only a few million Americans watch each night--and how voters view politics and render decisions.
As for the polls, it's always perilous to pay too much attention to them. But the latest polling data from both North Carolina and Indiana all point in a direction troubling for Obama. In early April in North Carolina, he led Clinton by 10 to 23 points in various surveys. Now, he has a 7-point edge. In Indiana, three recent polls have Clinton ahead by 5, 8, and 9 points.
Could Obama be sinking? Does he need a game-changer after the Wright to-do and the bitter "bitter" fuss? For political analysts, it is always tempting to overreact. That's what pundits and commentators do. It makes for better columns and better TV. Perhaps he'll do fine in North Carolina and Indiana, with voters in these states embracing him for the same reasons millions of Democrats elsewhere have done. But what if Obama truly is slipping and manages only to limp across the finish line? That's obviously what Clinton and her crew are betting on. And such an end to the primaries could lead to protracted political warfare within the Democratic Party. One question is, what can she really do if he ends up with more pledged delegates? But the flip side is, can he keep hope alive if he closes weakly?
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Comments
The only reason Obama is ahead is because he got votes that he would never get today. In other words, had I known about Wright in Jan, I never would have voted for him. I would like my vote back, and so would many Americans. Obama decieved us: he is a weak, unpatriotic, polarizing, and divisive figure.
Sorry Bob, you don't get your vote back right now. All we can do is push for an eight to twelve week primary period for party primaries. Such a move will not only sharpen attacks and more quickly, but also afford other parties like Libertarians, Socialists, and Greens the chance to get fair media attention after a relatively short primary season. Right now the long primary season causes excessive media coverage of Democrat and Republican candidates and leaves little more than 3 to 4 months for third party candidates to acquire a decent level of recognition/visibility.
The really sad thing is that I came to MotherJones a few years ago, because a nonconformist professor told my partner at the time about the very different points of view given here. However, after seeing this Obama major political party craze has basically sunk this, I am rather certain I won't be taking part hereafter. Too many readers and contributors refuse to look at Mr. Obama's past voting record. He is just as corporate, just as politics as usual from that point of view as HRC. I guess people prefer being led to the slaughterhouse with a nice message and great rhetoric than actually requiring proof-in-the-pudding change of the more quirky and offbeat members of Congress. Mark my words, you'll regret this pied piper blind fantasy.
It tickles me at just how desperate Hillary is getting.
Today, registered voters in rural Indiana were treated to a mailing questioning Obama's true position on firearms and the 2nd Amendment.
Given the contradictory statements he's on record with, that's justified.
What makes it riotously funny out here in the boonies is that it's coming from one of the most anti-2nd Amendment Senators currently serving, to say nothing of her husband's record on the matter. Our memories are NOT that short, and despite what they think of 'Fly Over' country, we aren't Quite that dumb.
GVC - I hope you'll spread that message, then. Because I think a lot of people do have short memories and appear to be dumb in all parts of the country. Remind your neighbors of Hillary and Bill's stance on the 2nd amendment. I'm tired of the right winf smear that all liberals are anti-gun - it's too layered and complex to say that. Now it's coming from within the party and from Hillary - the new queen of smear and filth.
Submitted by David Diver (not verified) on Thu May. 1, 2008 8:56 PM PDT.
The primaries are stretched over far too long a period with the result that the media scrabbles to find issues that are 'newsworthy' which then are discussed ad nauseum. As each week goes by it is difficult to see how the candidates can keep their sanity and concentrate on the issues that truly count. In this respect Obama has dealt with Pastor Wright frankly without denigrating the church that he has known for some 20 years. It is up to the voters to assess whether Obama's explanations and condemnation of Pastor Wright's viewpoints ring true or not. From my perspective he has satisfied my concerns and he should keep his head above the murky waters and concentrate on winning the nomination.
Submitted by capt - Hussein (not verified) on Fri May. 2, 2008 8:59 AM PDT.
Slide over to David Corn's personal blog and there is some balanced news about IN.
Try - DavidCorn dot com
Always something good to read there.
David Diver:
I agree that it is up to the voters to assess whether Obama's explanations and condemnations of Pastor Wright's viewpoints ring true or not. Obama has satisfied my concerns as well. I hope the super delegates that Clinton relies upon so much to support her aren't able to be bought. I do not see a need for super delegates at all. I agree also that Obama should keep his head above the murky waters and concentrate on winning the nomination because the already dirty Clintons are going to get dirtier before this scenario is over..
As far as I am concerned, Obama could not possibly do our country a greater injustice than the Clinton's have already done with the promoting and signing of the supposed free trade agreements, the 1st being NAFTA, that outsourced our jobs and took away the livelihood of our cities and towns all across the United States through Clintonian cooperation with corporate communism's mergers of nearly everything, exorbitant usury and the manipulation of trade in the United States away from the small operations, even away from the United States. The Clintons personally made 192 million off the deal, and the greater majority of the people, the 70% common population has suffered greatly.
The Clinton's and the DLC that the Clinton's support are blinded through ambition for power and wealth to the plight of the 70% MAJORITY common population. Waco, TX and Ruby Ridge, ID was on the Clinton's watch. It was Clinton, who against local authority, sent tanks and watched them roll against unarmed U.S. citizens in Waco at their home --- DEFENDING themselves AGAINST Clinton's DLC government --- NOT ATTACKING --- Clinton's DLC government gassed and burned at Waco for a show of superior power, like Clinton's FBI murder of Randy Weaver's family at Ruby Ridge, ID, because Randy Weaver bragged that he could take care of himself in the mountains without the need of government.
It is time for a change, a change to a government that is of, by and for the people, not against the people of the United States. There is hope in Obama.
Hopefully, an Obama Era will not be as dastardly as the Clinton Era was. The Clinton administration's rule of fear set up the Bush administration rule of fear to be able to do even more dastardly than the Clinton administration, so the people would be afraid and think they would be getting a better deal with another supposedly less dastardly Clinton administration, Hillary. The Clinton's BEGAN the NEW CLASS separation of the common population, and it is time the NEW CLASS separation of the common population end. The United States needs a government that will consider and make laws to protect ALL the citizens of the United States, not just the Corporate Elite and the NEW DLC CLASS.
I feel Obama will consider and include ALL the citizens of the United States. Maybe not, but it is time for a change from the Bush/Clinton domination of the government of the United States.
I am a white woman who is going to vote hope for change with Obama.
I don't think that Wright is a passing news item. He has definitively changed the grass roots voting. If certain super delegates fight the obvious, they will just make Obama look more elitist than he already does. The race is over.
Ira C. -Obama is NOT an anti-semite and has been endorsed by many in the Jewish community. Please read this from his neighbor-a rabbi.
http://www.thejewishweek.com/viewArticle/c55_a5420/Editorial__Opinion/Op...
