On Iraq's Northern Front, Echoes of Georgia?
| Wed Sep. 24, 2008 9:44 AM PDT
The following post is from occasional contributor Douglas Macgregor, an independent military strategist, retired Army colonel, and author of Breaking the Phalanx: A New Design for Landpower in the 21st Century.
Evidence is piling up that the Turkish government will commit its armed forces against the de facto Kurdish state in Northern Iraq sooner rather than later. During his trip to Ankara last week, Admiral Mike Mullen, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was assaulted with questions from Turkish authorities about Kurdish activities in Kirkuk designed to drive out the remaining Arabs and establish Kurdish control over Iraq's northern oil and gas resources.
What most Americans don't know is that the Turkish government has tried to negotiate a settlement with the Kurds through its new Special Envoy for Iraq, Murat Ozcelik. People who know Ozcelik insist he is the best person to negotiate Turkey's peace with the Kurds. Unfortunately, his Kurdish counterpart, Massoud Barzani, has turned out to be a fool who thinks he leads a pan-Kurdish movement inside Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey.
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Convinced that Kurdistan's oil and gas wealth empowers it to act as though it were a sovereign state, Barzani has reportedly missed his chance to secure real peace for the Kurds. Increasingly, he looks more and more like the Kurdish equivalent of Arafat—except that Barzani and the Kurds are likely to meet a far more bitter end. The Turks won't exercise the restraint the Israelis have vis-à-vis the Palestinian Arabs.
Much of the violence that is picking up between the Kurds and the Sunnis may well be the first sign of a Turkish counter-offensive to punish the Kurds for their continued support of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a militant group that seeks to establish a Kurdish state in the region. Barzani reportedly considers it his sacred duty to harbor the PKK, while Jalal Talibani, Iraq's Kurdish president, views the PKK as some sort of strategic hedge against Turkish military intervention.
"The Kurds have overplayed their hand thanks to lots of American encouragement," one of the most astute observers of the Turkish scene told me. "This isn't so unlike Georgia. But the resulting violence will be far worse; Iraq will grow more unstable and the US will lose what little credibility it has left in the Middle East."
We can only hope that United States withdraws our ground forces soon. Army and Marine ground forces already depend heavily on fixed bases for operational capability, and the prospect of facing a Turkish Army and Air Force full of young, energetic Turks only too happy to kill Americans is something this country should seek to avoid. Nothing good will come of it.
Click here for my December 2007 Mother Jones report on the danger of Turkish intervention in Iraq.
Comments
Baseless claims! This guy claims that the Fascist Republic of Turkey is ready to make a peace-deal with the Kurds, he has forgoten that the Turkish State DOES NOT recognise its 20 million kurdish minority as kurds, But it sees them as mountain turks!oh please tell the turks next time when you meet them to first recognise our kurdish identity, and believe me peace will follow thereafter.
All we kurds want is Freedom, Democracy, and the recognition of our God Given rights. Is that too much to ask? 20 million kurds in turkey are forbbiden to speak in their language and are dinied of their most basic rights. So why do people make baseless claims and write articles of matters that they have no good knowledge of? is that because they are pro-turks and financially suppoted by turkey? or they are ingnorant of all the atrocities that we have gone through in the hands of the Turks , Arabs and Iranians?
I utterly reject the writer's contentions and his ridiculous propoganizing of the fascistic Turks. He sounds little more than a Turkish puppet. If te eTurks want peace then they should act peacefully and stop coveting Kurdish oil. Iraqi Kurdistan is not South Ossetia and the Kurdish populations from Turkey (20 million strong) to Iran and Syria will react vehemently to push the Turks out of Kurdistan.
Is this conflagration really in US interests while US servciemen are still bogged down in Iraq?
Submitted by Hiwa Afandi (not verified) on Wed Sep. 24, 2008 1:37 PM PDT.
First, Iraq is a sovereign country and only Iraqis have the right to talk about it.
Second, there is a constitutions that more than 80% of Iraqis have voted for.
Third, comparing Iraq, Kurdistan Region Georgia, Russia and turkey shows that the so called Author has no idea what is he talking about. One can also say the opposite, If turkey attacks Kurdistan Region of Iraq it might loose its own Kurdistan (I know I am being funny here but this is the logic this guy understand and use).
This author has no idea what he's talking about... unfortunately the article is full of misinformation and clearly shows the author's bias or perhaps his ignorance and lock of knowledge. It's absurd to see him compare Barzani to Arafat, when Barzani is Kurds' Gandhi and Mandela.
Lately we have been encountering such chauvinistic writings by Turkish ultra nationalists and those on their payroll under various psuedo-noms.Their witings are baseless and unsubstantiated targetting public opinion world-wide to portray Turkey as the only God given democracy on planet earth at a time when this country is still hostage to its military and minorities are not recognized and deprived of their basic rights.
First of all that Mr. Murat Ozcelik is no counterpart to Mr. Barzani President of Kurdistan region that is recognized by Iraqi constitution.Second you must the biggest fool to insult a head of regional government who Kurdish people have put him in that position and not Turkish governmemnt.
Third, United states and other Western contries know very well if Turkey has seen any real benefits without dire consequences to invade Iraqi Kurdistan, it would have done it long time ago.Remember Turkey still refuse to recognize Iraqi Kurdistan Government and it still refuse to recognize its own Kurds and has failed to offer a single peaceful initiative to solve the Kurdish problem in Turkey.
Mr. Macgregor, I agree with you that most American don't understand the situation in Kurdistan in relation to Iraq and Turkey. Unfortunately, either you have no clue or you chose to mislead your readers about Turkish aggression and Kurdish suffering.
The following are facts; I hope it would be useful to you:
- Arabization and anfal campaign (ethnic cleansing, massive killing and deportation of Kurds from Kirkuk and many other areas in Kurdistan region).
- I encourage you to read history of Kirkuk from days of Ottoman Empire until 1959; you may find out some facts, that your Turks friends may not like it.
- The Turkish government has not recognized KRG (Kurdistan Regional Government)
, they don't recognize Kurdistan region (they refer to it as Northern Iraq).
- Lastly, please don't insult the Jewish state by comparing it to Turkey. Israel fight for peace, the Turks are Nazi of the region.
The Turkish Army has been in close cooperation with the American Army since the beginning of the NATO partnership half a century ago. Turkey should not be mistaken for some other countries in the region which are anti-American to a very large extent. In the future, Turkish Army will work with the American Army when necessary as allies.
PKK does not seek to establish an independent Kurdish state as the author claims.
As recently as August 2006 the PKK offered a political solution to the Kurdish situation in North Kurdistan (Southeast Turkey) in which they specifically stated that their solution emphasized democratic autonomy within the borders of Turkey and that such a solution in the unity of Turkey would benefit not only the Kurdish people but also all the peoples of the region.
Then came Lockheed Martin director Joseph Ralston, appointed by the Bush administration to be the "special envoy" to "coordinate the PKK" for Turkey. Unfortunately for everyone, the only thing Ralston bothered to coordinate was the $10 billion sale of Lockheed Martin F-35 aircraft to Turkey.
Now, what exactly would be Douglas Macgregor's links to the military-industrial-Congressional complex that he so completely overlooks the facts of the resistance of the Kurdish people to Turkish injustice?
It is understandable a bunch of PKK supporters gets angry when western world starts to realize the real intentions of Kurd's. They are sure playing with the fire and blame everyone else.. When oil runs out in a decade or two, they won't have any leverage, and the rest of the world won't care. Bunch of losers.
Submitted by What? (not verified) on Sun Oct. 5, 2008 5:41 AM PDT.
I thought that an academic man was writing, well, it is not. Using the word 'fool' makes yourself fool. Second, lets me make you aware that Murat Ozcelik and his counterparts are not willing to meet Kurdish officals in Iraq, whilst Pres. Bush does. Assholl
