In The Blogs

Mathematical Model Predicts Obama Win by Ten Points

| Thu Sep. 11, 2008 5:14 PM PDT

Emory political science professor Alan Abramowitz seems to have a mathematical election model that works. Abramowitz's system has correctly predicted the popular vote winner within two percentage points for every presidential election since 1988. This year, it's predicting an Obama win: 54.3 percent, versus McCain's 45.7 percent.

The model isn't perfect, of course, but it does factor in a wide range of variables such as GDP, a party's time in office, and recent polls. "While factors outside of the model, such as rising partisan polarization and resistance to an African American candidate by some white voters may result in a somewhat smaller popular vote margin for the Democratic nominee," Abramowitz writes, "the combination of an unpopular Republican incumbent in the White House, a weak economy, and a second-term election make a Democratic victory in November all but certain."

If you're skeptical of models, check out the Iowa Electronic Market's trading index for the presidential election. For decades, it's been a much better predictor of presidential wins than Gallup polls. As of today, the market's predicting a 54 percent win for the Democrats, versus 45 percent for the Republicans. it could be a coincidence that those numbers are so close to Abramowitz's, or it could be that investors are reacting to his model's predictions. A third option: it could be that Obama actually is going to win by ten points.

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Jen Phillips is an assistant editor at Mother Jones. For more of her stories, click here.

Comments

Submitted by Brian J (not verified) on Thu Sep. 11, 2008 5:20 PM PDT.

Hey, I still have a gut feeling Obama is going to win. I thought the same thing about John Kerry, but this is...stronger, if you will. I am not sure by what margin, although my fantasy a few weeks ago was 444 Electoral votes. That, of course, had us winning everything from Texas to South Carolina to Alaska, so it was unlikely. That last one is probably out of reach regardless of his margin of success nationally or in other states.

Let's just that the mathematical models are what get me through the periods of doubt. But let's not forget the outstanding ground game and voter registration efforts that Obama has been cultivating for months.

Submitted by John H (not verified) on Thu Sep. 11, 2008 6:56 PM PDT.

Does the model factor in Republican hijinks on election day? This is great news but I'm still donating to Obama again.

Submitted by Biil F (not verified) on Thu Sep. 11, 2008 11:02 PM PDT.

You might want to check out Pollyvote.com where models (including this one), polls, forecasts, the Iowa Electronic Market and expert opinions are combined into a forecast.

Obama is up 3.6% there.

Submitted by dc matthews (not verified) on Fri Sep. 12, 2008 6:57 AM PDT.

im in the oc.
and many gops are saying not decided.
now youmay say so what but this is the first time since i've been here -1978 that hard line oc i'snt saying they are voting red or dead and for damned sure.

PLEASE GET MORE FACTS OUT THERE ABOUT TAXES ADN COMMENT IN EVERY STATES PAPERS ABOUT FACTCHECK.ORG INFO AND

ARTICLES TO SUPPORT REALITY..
Washington Post:
Tiptoeing Through the Mud
By E. J. Dionne Jr.
Friday, September 12, 2008; Page A15
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. --...The campaign is a blur of flying pieces of junk, lipstick and gutter-style attacks. John McCain's deceptions about Barack Obama's views and Sarah Palin's flip-flopping suggest an unedifying scuffle over a city council seat.
The media bear a heavy responsibility because 'balance' does not require giving equal time to truth and lies. So does McCain, who is running a disgraceful, dishonorable campaign of distraction and diversion.

Here's the problem: Few voters know that Obama would cut the taxes of the vast majority of Americans by far more than McCain would. Few know Obama would guarantee everyone access to health care or that McCain's health plan might endanger coverage many already have. Few know that Obama has a coherent program to create new jobs through public investment in roads, bridges, transit, and green technologies.
In short, few Americans know what (or whom) Obama is fighting for, because he isn't really telling them. And few know that McCain's economic plan is worse than President Bush's. As Jonathan Cohn points out in the New Republic, McCain would add $8.5 trillion in new debt over the next 10 years. It's McCain who should be on the defensive.

Submitted by Bill NIgh (not verified) on Fri Sep. 12, 2008 8:18 AM PDT.

I don't knwo if you people read a key word in the begginging, "Popular Vote"..?

As many of you know, and many of you despise, it is the Electoral COllege that picks the President..Right.?

If the polular vote mattered at all, then gas-bag gore, would be president..

You can have all the coasts support a candidate, but what matters is the ENTIRE country.. Understand..?

Thank GOD for the Electoral College..:-)

BIll

Submitted by eddie hernandez (not verified) on Fri Sep. 12, 2008 9:56 AM PDT.

I can tell you that, without a shadow of a doubt, there is no chance that a Democrat can win Texas. I unfortunately live there ( at least for a short time longer) and these ignorant fools still think Bush is a good president and I've actually had to get into shouting matches and more over bumper stickers and t-shirts I choose to vote my displeasure and hate for all things conservative, republican and Bush.

Submitted by Carol (not verified) on Fri Sep. 12, 2008 12:59 PM PDT.

Eddie in Texas, I live here as well; and, while I agree that this state will probably stay weak GOP and turn in a higher vote for the McLiar Ticket, there is always a chance things could turn some. We have Dem Senators and House Members, and this state is making progress. Why don't you put yourself to work and get out the vote? Sign up for a canvassing team via the Obama site? There's a lot you can do to help Texas change.

Submitted by AlexanderBuinov (not verified) on Fri Sep. 12, 2008 4:07 PM PDT.

If Obama wins 54% to 46% for McCain, will the MSM claim a "landslide" victory with a "mandate" for his policies?

How small does the victory have to be to be spared the "mandate" crap?

Submitted by GVC (not verified) on Fri Sep. 12, 2008 4:47 PM PDT.

How 'bout we just examine All the candidates running, what they're saying, what they're proposing and not just eat the bullsh!t the media wants to feed us about the two candidates they want us to limit ourselves to? Then decide who is the best candidate and vote for him/her?

How 'bout if we tell all the pollsters and the media who feeds us "polls vs. polls vs. polls" to go pound sand up their collective a$$, because they don't get to decide who's going to win our elections?
WE Do!