Troubled Taiwan

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Ballot-boxes from 13,000 polling stations have been ordered sealed by the high court, and 20,000 opposition supporters are out on the streets agitating for a recount.

If it's true that Chen fixed his election, he didn't manage to rig the controversial two-question referendum that Beijing feared would cement Taiwan’s independence. The referendum asked voters if they favored beefing up the island's security against possible Chinese aggression, and if they wanted dialogue with China about cross-strait relations. Fewer than half the voters chose to answer, making the referendum invalid. (Of those who did answer, more than 91 percent voted in favor of the two questions asked, as Chen had urged.

Having survived the assassin's bullet, President Chen -- a man who has embodied the island's transition to democracy and has been an ardent defender of its sovereignty -- is starting his second term amidst mass protests questioning the legitimacy of his victory, investor anxiety that resulted in a $28 billion hit for the Taiwanese market on Monday, and a China gleeful about the failure of Chen's referendum. China has criticized the referendum as a move towards independence by Taiwan, which it regards as a breakaway province. China declared that:

"Facts have proven that this illegal act goes against the will of the people. Any attempt to separate Taiwan from China is doomed to failure."

The KMT is understandably upset that an election they were sure Lien Chan would win was instead won by President Chen. The victory was due in part to the wave of sympathy that swept the country following the shocking news of an assassination attempt on the president and the vice-president the day before the Presidential Elections.

But rather than graciously accept defeat, Lien Chan and his coalition have been playing sour losers. After expressing genuine concern for the president's welfare and even offering an award to find the assassins, the opposition quickly suggested that President Chen staged his own assassination with a sympathy vote in mind. The switch came not as a result of any new evidence in the case. President Chen's injuries, which at first were reported as serious, turned out to be mild, and the KMT rightly feared the electoral repercussions. National shock and numerous rallies in support of President Chen following the assassination confirmed the KMT's fears and so the conspiracy theories began. As the John J. Tkacik Jr. of the Weekly Standard points out:

"Almost immediately the KMT [Lien Chan's supporters] rumor machine slipped into overdrive. Private mobile phones all over Taiwan began getting text-messages that the assassination was a fraud and asked the receiver to pass it on. Soon, unsympathetic taxi drivers began telling foreigners (myself included, several times) that they heard Chen had staged the attack to gain votes. But this whispering campaign got little traction. That evening, eight hours after the president had been attacked, Jaw Shao-kang and legislator Sisy Chen, of the KMT coalition's far right wing, presided over TV talk shows which openly accused the president of faking his medical reports and clucked approvingly while others postulated that President Chen had arranged for himself to be shot in the gut. I watched two separate programs Friday evening and was appalled by the vitriol and outright lies that these people countenanced. Most Taiwanese I spoke with on voting day were equally horrified."

The talk of a staged assassination attempt was taken by most for what it was -- a cheap shot by the Nationalists. Photographs of President Chen bleeding at a campaign rally where he was shot as well as the released photographs taken during the operation seemed to disprove the opposition's claims.

The KMT is also, of course, alleging vote-rigging. Instead of the expected concession speech, Lien Chan demanded a re-count, pointing to a high number of spoiled ballots: 337,297, or 2.5 percent of the vote.

This is no small number, given that President Chen won by less than 30,000 votes. However, the suggestion that the spoiled ballots were cast for the opposition and were spoiled by the government to assure President Chen's re-election are suspect. The reason for the high number of spoiled votes is actually very simple: the "Millions of Invalid Votes Project" seems to have succeeded in mobilizing the protest vote. As the Taipei Times reports:

“Supporters of the alliance were asked to spoil their ballots by stamping the photos of the candidates on the mouths to indicate disgust with the empty promises and corruption of both the pan-green [President Chen's supporters] and pan-blue camps [KMT's Lien Chan supporters].”

President Chen, a strong proponent of Taiwanese sovereignty who some suspect seeks to go down in history books as the man who paved the way towards Taiwan's independence, suffered a defeat of his two referendum questions:

1) "If China refuses to withdraw the missiles it has targeted at Taiwan and to openly renounce the use of force against us, would you agree that the government should acquire more advanced anti-missile weapons to strengthen Taiwan's self-defense capabilities?"

2) "Would you agree that our government should engage in negotiations with China about the establishment of a ‘peace and stability' framework for cross-strait interactions in order to build consensus and for the welfare of the peoples on both sides?"

Most voters are supportive of President Chen's vision of a sovereign Taiwan, but many were suspicious of his motives in asking what were to most voters, uncontentious questions about Taiwan's defense policy, the answer to which, to most Taiwanese (including those who chose to boycott the referendum), was a self-evident "yes." More people voted in favor of the referendum's questions than voted for President Chen, which led some to suggest that, if anything, it helped rather than hurt his re-election campaign. Nevertheless, losing the referendum was a major upset for President Chen, who has made its passage his personal crusade. The opposition's arguments that the referendum's questions would unnecessarily upset China rang true to many voters who decided not to take part in it. As the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) points out:

"Then there's the fact that referendums Mr. Chen had called and campaigned heavily for failed, with a majority of Taiwanese apparently heeding the opposition's call for a boycott. The KMT argued that the president was asking for votes that would be unnecessarily provocative to the mainland and fuel mainland claims that Mr. Chen is risking military intervention by pushing for a unilateral declaration of Taiwanese independence. Voters apparently agreed."

Most voters see themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese and given the right circumstances, would like their island, in addition to its democratic system of government and a prosperous economy, gain international recognition as an independent state. This does not mean that those want independence think it wise to vote for it right now. As the seemingly innocuous referendum on the security questions shows, voters are wary of anything that may unnecessarily antagonize China feathers with no political benefit for Taiwan in return.