Is This the End of Bushism?

Bush himself. In the not-so-recent past, it was argued that Bush himself would never become really unpopular because of his image as a strong leader and the unshakable support of his base. That argument can now be discarded.

Recent public polls all have Bush’s approval rating below 40 percent and we now have our first public poll (CBS News) where approval has fallen to the 35 percent level and our first poll (Washington Post/ABC News) where disapproval has reached the 60 percent level, with strong disapproval nearly reaching 50 percent. These polls tend to show Bush’s approval rating among GOP identifiers below 80 percent – a level that many thought he would never fall below. And his job approval among independents now hovers around 30 percent. According to the new Pew Research Center poll, his job approval among this group has dropped an amazing 18 points since the beginning of this year.

In the CBS News poll, Bush’s approval rating among moderates is also just 30 percent. And even conservatives only give him a 54 percent rating. The Pew Research Center report also notes that moderates and liberals among Republicans (37 percent of GOP identifiers) have declined dramatically in their support for Bush since July, reaching levels as low as 60 percent approval.

The full dimensions of this collapse can be better appreciated through some historical comparisons. At this point in Bill Clinton’s second term, he had an approval rating of 57 percent. At the analogous point in Reagan’s second term, he had a 65 percent rating. And at the same point in Eisenhower’s second term, he had a 58 percent rating. Of recent two-term presidents, only Nixon had a lower rating at this point (27 percent). And, as Pew data from its recent poll show, the only thing keeping Bush from reaching truly Nixonian levels is that, despite declining Republican support, his current level (77 percent) is still substantially higher than Nixon enjoyed at the analogous point in his second term (56 percent). But his ratings among Democrats and independents are now essentially identical with those Nixon was receiving in November, 1973.

Leadership. Bush, the strong leader. This image has been absolutely central to Bushism as the administration ignored, over and over again, the views of the majority of the American public. People may not have agreed with Bush’s policies, but their high respect for him as a leader led many to overlook that fact.

No more. He can’t even crack 50 percent now in assessments of his leadership qualities. For example, in the WP/ABC poll, only 47 percent say he can be characterized as a strong leader. Similarly, in the CBS News poll, a mere 49 percent are willing to say Bush has “strong qualities of leadership.” And in a mid-October Gallup poll, just 49 percent agree that Bush has “the personality and leadership qualities a president should have.” All these numbers represent big declines since 2004.

And without confidence in Bush’s leadership qualities, what is the public likely to focus on now when they think of Bush? Perhaps that they don’t believe he shares their values (a 58-40 judgment in the WP/ABC poll). Or that he doesn’t understand the problems of people like them (a 66-34 judgment in the same poll). Or the poor job they feel he’s doing in virtually every policy area. Bushism can’t survive in such an environment.